In a paper published in Science Magazine, authors Gagandeep Kang and Jacob John have discussed India’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic and the implications of a lack of publicly available data at the beginning of the outbreak.
Dr Kang is a prominent vaccine and infectious disease researcher and Dr John is a celebrated virologist and former professor at the Christian Medical College, Vellore.
“The public health response to infectious disease outbreaks is founded on the ability to mount a coordinated strategy that combines measuring and tracking cases to assess the efficacy of interventions."The authors
One of the major concerns in India has been the lack of data and information sharing of the available data between the government agencies and academic groups which could analyse and give recommendations for policy and strategies.
Picking up from a previous paper that presented such findings from government-implemented surveillance during the first four months of the pandemic in the two southern states of Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, the authors quote some important insights. Despite its limitations, the study showed the importance of superspreaders in fueling the pandemic, the increased likelihood of cases infecting contacts of similar ages and that children under 14 are active participants in transmission.
“These findings probably reflect prevalent social mixing patterns in India but raise concerns about the possibility of enhanced transmission when poorly ventilated, crowded schools reopen,” they note.
Another finding from the earlier study was that more than half the reported deaths in these two states occurred within six days of the diagnosis as compared to the 16 days in China. This could be because of various reasons, such as seeking help later in their illnesses, limited testing capacities, and inadequate treatment facilities. “The 26% improvement in mortality risk in recent months in these states may partly be attributed to improved access to testing, treatment, and health care infrastructure over time,” they say.
The authors conclude, “More studies from diverse settings at this stage of the pandemic, particularly including data from serosurveys, are needed to better understand factors determining transmission, plan interventions, and predict outcomes in low and middle-income countries.”
(With inputs from Science Magazine)
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