Last week, the IMD said there was an "enhanced probability" of heatwaves occurring between March and May.
On 6 February, Prime Minister Narendra Modi chaired a high-level meeting to review the preparedness for hot weather conditions over the next few months and called for separate awareness material for different stake-holders like common citizens, medical professionals, local body authorities, and disaster response teams.
So, which parts of India are likely to experience heatwaves? And what knock-on effects may such events have? Read on.
Heatwaves, Power Crisis, Water Scarcity: What Will Summer Look Like This Year?
1. Which Parts of India Are Most Likely To Experience Heatwaves?
"Above normal maximum temperatures are likely over most parts of northeast India, east and central India and some parts of northwest India" from March to May," the IMD said in a statement.
What Else Has the IMD Predicted?
The IMD said there was an enhanced probability of occurrence of heatwave during March, April, and May over many regions of central and adjoining northwest India.
The department said that during the upcoming summer season, above normal minimum temperatures are very likely in most parts of the country, except south peninsular India, where normal to below normal minimum temperatures are likely.
It also added that the monthly maximum temperatures for March are likely to be above normal over most parts of India, except peninsular India, where normal to below normal maximum temperatures are likely.
The weather office also said that there was a low probability of occurrence of heatwave over central India during March 2023.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in its recent report published in 2022, predicted that heatwaves would become more frequent and more severe in India in the coming years.
Expand2. What Are the Main Concerns?
Abhiyant Tiwari, Lead - Health & Climate Resilience, NRDC India, pointed out to The Quint that with each passing year, summers are getting longer.
"Last year, March was the hottest March in 100 years. This year, it was the warmest February. It is not wrong to say that the duration of summers in increasing and exposure to heat causes many health problems," he said.
As Dr Anjal Prakash, Research Director at Bharti Institute of Public Policy, Indian School of Business, explained to The Quint that extreme temperatures have an effect not just on the health and wellbeing of an individual but the impact is felt across different sectors of the economy as well.
"Heatwaves have damaged crops in the past and reduced agricultural yield. In the previous two years, the early heatwave in northern India reduced wheat crop production to a significant level. Such instances can lead to food shortages and price increases, which can have a significant impact on the country's economy and food security," he said.
He also pointed out that heatwaves are causing a reduction in the water impounded in lakes and rivers due to increased evaporation.
"This can exacerbate existing water scarcity issues in India, particularly in areas where water is already in short supply," he added.
"The effects of heatwaves are interlinked. For instance, reduced agricultural yields and food shortages can lead to price increases, which can impact consumers' ability to purchase goods and services," said Dr Prakash.
Expand3. 'Increased Demand for Electricity'
Tiwari also pointed out that last year's recording breaking temperatures worsened the power crisis. "The same thing may repeat this year," he said.
The Central Electricity Authority has estimated that in April, the peak power demand may be at 229 gigawatts (GW). As per the agency, energy demand will be the highest in April at 1,42,097 MUs (million units of energy), higher than its estimates of 1,41,464 MU for the month of May.
Government data and internal documents reviewed by Reuters estimate that the nighttime peak demand in April may hit 217 GW – up 6.4 percent of the highest nighttime levels recorded in April last year.
"The situation is a little stressed," Grid Controller of India Ltd (Grid-India) said in a note dated 3 February.
'Need for Comprehensive Mitigation Policies'
"With the average temperatures slated to increase, all sectors of the economy have to come up with mitigation plans, which has to be comprehensive in the true sense of the term," said Tiwari.
Expand
Which Parts of India Are Most Likely To Experience Heatwaves?
"Above normal maximum temperatures are likely over most parts of northeast India, east and central India and some parts of northwest India" from March to May," the IMD said in a statement.
What Else Has the IMD Predicted?
The IMD said there was an enhanced probability of occurrence of heatwave during March, April, and May over many regions of central and adjoining northwest India.
The department said that during the upcoming summer season, above normal minimum temperatures are very likely in most parts of the country, except south peninsular India, where normal to below normal minimum temperatures are likely.
It also added that the monthly maximum temperatures for March are likely to be above normal over most parts of India, except peninsular India, where normal to below normal maximum temperatures are likely.
The weather office also said that there was a low probability of occurrence of heatwave over central India during March 2023.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in its recent report published in 2022, predicted that heatwaves would become more frequent and more severe in India in the coming years.
What Are the Main Concerns?
Abhiyant Tiwari, Lead - Health & Climate Resilience, NRDC India, pointed out to The Quint that with each passing year, summers are getting longer.
"Last year, March was the hottest March in 100 years. This year, it was the warmest February. It is not wrong to say that the duration of summers in increasing and exposure to heat causes many health problems," he said.
As Dr Anjal Prakash, Research Director at Bharti Institute of Public Policy, Indian School of Business, explained to The Quint that extreme temperatures have an effect not just on the health and wellbeing of an individual but the impact is felt across different sectors of the economy as well.
"Heatwaves have damaged crops in the past and reduced agricultural yield. In the previous two years, the early heatwave in northern India reduced wheat crop production to a significant level. Such instances can lead to food shortages and price increases, which can have a significant impact on the country's economy and food security," he said.
He also pointed out that heatwaves are causing a reduction in the water impounded in lakes and rivers due to increased evaporation.
"This can exacerbate existing water scarcity issues in India, particularly in areas where water is already in short supply," he added.
"The effects of heatwaves are interlinked. For instance, reduced agricultural yields and food shortages can lead to price increases, which can impact consumers' ability to purchase goods and services," said Dr Prakash.
'Increased Demand for Electricity'
Tiwari also pointed out that last year's recording breaking temperatures worsened the power crisis. "The same thing may repeat this year," he said.
The Central Electricity Authority has estimated that in April, the peak power demand may be at 229 gigawatts (GW). As per the agency, energy demand will be the highest in April at 1,42,097 MUs (million units of energy), higher than its estimates of 1,41,464 MU for the month of May.
Government data and internal documents reviewed by Reuters estimate that the nighttime peak demand in April may hit 217 GW – up 6.4 percent of the highest nighttime levels recorded in April last year.
"The situation is a little stressed," Grid Controller of India Ltd (Grid-India) said in a note dated 3 February.
'Need for Comprehensive Mitigation Policies'
"With the average temperatures slated to increase, all sectors of the economy have to come up with mitigation plans, which has to be comprehensive in the true sense of the term," said Tiwari.
"Our policies also have to be have to be formulated in such a way that they address issues related to it. For instance, we don't know much about indoor heating yet. So, keeping that in mind, the building codes can be formulated whereby there are provisions for cool roof (a design that reflects more sunlight than a conventional roof and absorbs less solar energy) etc."
"Our megacities have already been expanded so much that they have to be retrofitted. But our tier-II cities, which are developing slowly, can be designed in such a way that it limits the urban heat island effect etc," he added.
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