Chanakya-News24 Exit Poll: NDA Expected to Get 350+ Seats, UPA 95
Can PM Narendra Modi’s BJP Fend Off UPA Resurgence?
Can PM Narendra Modi’s BJP Fend Off UPA Resurgence?(Photo: Kamran Akhtar/The Quint)

Chanakya-News24 Exit Poll: NDA Expected to Get 350+ Seats, UPA 95

The Chanakya-News24 exit poll has predicted that the NDA will return to power with a resounding majority, acquiring 350+ seats in the Lok Sabha polls.

The poll also predicted that the UPA will improve its tally but fail to breach the 100-seat mark, at 95.

The exit poll also predicted that the Narendra Modi-led BJP will clean sweep the states of Gujarat, Haryana, Uttarakhand and Delhi – winning all 26, 10, five and seven seats respectively.

And, in what could be one of the most surprising outcomes of the exit polls, the SP-BSP-RLD is predicted to lose heavily at the hands of the BJP, with the saffron party winning 65 seats.

A similar sweep is expected in the Hindi heartland states of Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, that saw the Congress make significant gains in the recent Assembly polls.

Meanwhile, West Bengal will once again see TMC take the lead (getting 23 seats) but the BJP will make significant gains in the state, winning 18 seats.

With the seventh and final phase of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections coming to an end, at 6 pm on Sunday, 19 May, the entire country will now await the results, on 23 May – that will determine who will become the next prime minister.

Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), led by its chief campaigner and sitting PM Narendra Modi, manage to fend off the resurgence of a reinvigorated UPA, or will a ‘third front’ play spoil sport?

In the interim, between end of polling and the results, exit polls can point towards the answers to some of these broader questions.

Snapshotclose

  • Today’s Chanakya and News24 exit poll predicted that the NDA will return to power with a resounding majority, acquiring 350+ seats in the Lok Sabha polls
  • And, in what could be one of the most surprising outcomes of the exit polls, the SP-BSP-RLD is predicted to lose heavily at the hands of the BJP, with the saffron party winning 65 seats
  • A similar sweep is expected in the Hindi heartland states of Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, that saw the Congress make significant gains in the recent Assembly polls

(Follow exit polls results from Axis My India, News18-IPSOS, Times Now-VMR and Nielsen here.)

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Chanakya Exit Poll 2014 in Numbers

Most exit polls conducted ahead of the 2014 Lok Sabha polls by various agencies proved to be off the mark, except the one by Chanakya-News24 that had projected 340-odd seats for NDA and 291 for BJP in particular.

NDA had won 336 seats in 2014, with BJP's tally being 282. Today's Chanakya and News24 had projected 340 for NDA and around 70 seats to UPA, with an error margin of plus or minus 14. It had proved to be the most accurate projection among different pollsters.

Also Read : How Accurate Have Exit Polls Been in Last Few Lok Sabha Elections?

(The Quint is now available on Telegram. For handpicked stories every day, subscribe to us on Telegram)

Lok Sabha Elections 2019: What Has Happened So Far?

The 2019 Lok Sabha elections, one of the most bitterly fought ones so far, were contested in seven phases in April and May.

Voting commenced on 11 April and came to an end on 19 May across 542 constituencies, marked by controversial speeches across the political spectrum, questions raised over the Election Commission's functioning and reports of intermittent violence, especially in West Bengal.

The key states to look out for are Uttar Pradesh, with its 80 seats; Maharashtra, with 48 seats; West Bengal, with 42 seats; and Bihar, with 40 seats.

A three-cornered contest is being witnessed in UP, with the BJP taking on the Mahagathbandhan (SP+BSP+RLD) and the Congress. In Maharashtra, the Congress-NCP combine is fighting the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance.

Trying to make inroads into West Bengal, the BJP is locked in a bitter contest with the Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress in the state.

In Bihar, the RJD-Congress alliance (along with other smaller parties) is fighting the NDA coalition comprising Nitish Kumar's JD(U), BJP and Ram Vilas Paswan's LJP.

What The 2014 Exit Polls Predicted

In 2014, most exit polls showed an NDA victory, but barring Today’s Chanakya, none of them could correctly predict that the BJP led by Narendra Modi would storm to power with an absolute majority of its own, a feat achieved for the first time since 1984.

Here are there predictions for 2014:

India Today-Cicero

  • NDA: 261
  • UPA: 110
  • Others: 150

CNN-IBN-CSDS

  • NDA: 270
  • UPA: 92
  • Others: 159

India TV-CVoter

  • NDA: 289
  • UPA: 100
  • Others: 153

News 24-Chanakya

  • NDA: 340
  • UPA: 70
  • Others: 133

Actual Result:

  • NDA: 336
  • UPA: 60
  • Others: 147

Exit Polls to Set Market Trend

Exit poll trends will set the tone for the equity markets in the initial part of the week, while the final outcome of the general elections on 23 May would build the road ahead for stocks, analysts said, as per PTI.

Investors should also brace for bouts of volatility in view of the high-octane election related events, they added.

Chanakya Exit Poll: Chhattisgarh

BJP is projected to get nine seats in Chhattisgarh as opposed to Congress’ two seats.

Seats Total: 11

BJP: 9

Congress: 2

Chanakya Exit Poll: BJP Clean Sweep in Gujarat, Haryana, Delhi

The exit poll has predicted that BJP will clean sweep the states of Gujarat, Haryana and Delhi, winning all 26 seats 10 and seven seats respectively.

Chanakya Exit Poll: Congress- Alliance to Win Big in Kerala

The Chanakya-News24 exit poll has projected that the Congress-UDF alliance will secure 16 of the 20 seats in Kerala.

The BJP will fail to open its account despite of increasing its vote share to 10 percent, the poll predicted. The Left will round up the remaining four seats.

Chanakya Exit Poll: Madhya Pradesh to See Saffron Wave

The Chanakya exit poll has predicted that Congress’ recent Madhya Pradesh victory in the Assembly polls will have no bearing on the Lok Sabha elections as the BJP is set to win 27 of the 29 seats.

Chanakya Exit Poll: Tamil Nadu to Lean Towards DMK-Cong, Reject BJP-AIADMK

As per the exit poll, the politically charged state of Tamil Nadu will decide to go with the Congress-DMK alliance, electing it in 31 of 38 seats. The BJP-AIADMK alliance is projected to win six seats, with others getting one.

Chanakya Exit Poll: Rajasthan to See Repeat of 2014

Rajasthan will once again see a BJP clean sweep, with Congress failing to capitalise on its gains in the Assembly elections.

Chanakya Exit Poll: Chandrababu Naidu to Perform Well in Andhra

TDP, led by N Chandrababu Naidu, is set to dominate in Andhra Pradesh, with the exit poll projecting 17 of the 25 seats for the party. YSR Congress will grab the remaining eight.

Chanakya Exit Poll: Telangana to March the TRS Way

The Chanakya-News24 exit poll has predicted a strong showing for the TRS, with the party securing 14 of the 17 seats.

Chanakya Exit Poll: BJP-Shiv Sena to Seal Maharashtra

Chanakya Exit Poll: BJP to Edge Past Congress in Karnataka

Karnataka will be yet another state that will see the BJP defeat the Congress, winning 23 seats out of 28, the Chanakya-News24 exit poll suggested.

Chanakya Exit Poll: BJP-JD(U) to Reclaim Bihar

The BJP-JD(U) alliance is expected to perform well in Bihar, securing a total of 32 seats as opposed to Congress’ eight, as per Chanakya-News24 exit poll.

Chanakya Exit Poll: Assam to See Saffron Surge

The Chanakya-News24 exit poll has predicted a clear victory for the BJP.

Chanakya Exit Poll: Massive Upset on Cards for SP-BSP in UP

In what could be one of the most surprising outcomes of the Chanakya-News24 exit polls, the SP-BSP-RLD is predicted to lose heavily at the hands of the BJP.

Of the 80 seats in the state, the saffron party is expected to get 65 seats and the alliance will get 13 seats.

Chanakya Exit Poll: NDA Expected to Get 350+ Seats, UPA 95

The Chanakya-News24 exit poll has predicted that the NDA will return to power with a resounding majority, acquiring 350+ seats in the Lok Sabha polls.

The poll also predicted that the UPA will improve its tally but fail to breach the 100-seat mark, at 95.

Chanakya Exit Poll: TMC to Secure Bengal, But BJP to Make Significant Gains

West Bengal will once again see TMC take the lead (getting 23 seats) but the BJP will make significant gains in the state, winning 18 seats.

Follow our Elections section for more stories.

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