The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) may have lost the Municipal Corporation of Delhi elections to the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), but the party did manage to showcase its resilience in Delhi politics.
The BJP's vote share actually increased compared to the previous MCD election. In 2017, the BJP is estimated to have secured around 37 percent of the total valid votes. This is an estimate because in 2017, it was a trifurcated MCD - divided into the East, South and North corporations.
This time the BJP's vote share has actually increased to about 39 percent, a rise of 2 percentage points.
Increasing its vote share even after 15 years of being in power is no small achievement.
It seems AAP won not so much due to any losses to the BJP but by consolidating anti-BJP votes that had earlier gone to the Congress, BSP and Independents.
The BJP also proved all the Exit Polls wrong, by crossing the 100 mark. None of the Exit Polls had predicted that the party would cross 100 in the MCD.
(Exit Polls underestimated BJP)
(Deeksha Malhotra/The Quint)
So what explains the BJP's resilience in Delhi?
1. Organisational Strength
The BJP's absence from power at the state level since 1998 actually doesn't do justice to how strong the party actually is in Delhi. The party has a very strong organisation in Delhi. The increase in its vote share in this election is mainly due to the party's ability to ensure that its core voters come out to vote. AAP's margin may have suffered due to its inability to get a larger number of floating voters to turn out and vote for them the way they do in Assembly elections.
The BJP has old roots in Delhi, laid by stalwarts like Madan Lal Khurana, Balraj Madhok and later Sahib Singh Verma. It has been a strong player in Delhi since during the Jan Sangh days. The Jan Sangh won six out of seven Lok Sabha seats in Delhi way back in 1967.
2. Committed Base
The BJP seems to have a committed base of voters who will turn out to vote for the party irrespective of what election it is and whether the party has delivered on its promises or not.
The BJP hasn't gone below 32 percent votes in any election in Delhi since over 30 years.
This is no small achievement for a party that has been out of power in the state since 1998.
3. Support Among Certain Voting Groups
The popularly held belief is that the BJP is strongest among Punjabi voters, most of who are families which came to Delhi during Partition.
However, the India Today - Axis My India survey shows that AAP had a sizable over 20 point lead among Punjabi voters. However, among other Upper Caste voters (besides Punjabis), the BJP had a lead, according to the survey.
The real vote bank for the BJP in Delhi is actually Bania voters, who seem to have remained loyal to the party.
The BJP also had a lead among small shopkeepers and those above 60 years of age.
The BJP has performed the best in East Delhi, where Upper Caste and relatively well-to-do voters are dominant. This included even deputy CM Manish Sisodia's area Patparganj.
4. Politics of Ideology and Polarisation
BJP has consistently pursued a strategy of raising ideological issues even during elections.
In the 2017 MCD election, the BJP made the surgical strikes a poll issue.
This time the party raked up the Shraddha Walkar murder.
Campaigning in Delhi, Assam CM Himanta Biswa Sarma went to the extent of saying that "In India, there won't be any Aftab (alleged killer of Shraddha), there will be a law against Love Jihad".
It is not clear how much impact this campaign had but it could have possibly helped BJP take the focus away from civic governance issues.
5. Modi Factor
Prime Minister Narendra Modi enjoys a great deal of popularity in Delhi. Many voters ignored resentment against their BJP councillor mainly because of their faith in PM Modi.
The Modi factor combined with BJP's vast resources, is an important factor behind its resilience.
What the party now needs is a strong state level leadership. Presently, the state party chief as well as most of the MPs and MLAs have very little popularity outside their own areas.
The party would need to cultivate a state-level leader who has pan-Delhi popularity.
If this election is any indication, the main winners in the state BJP are Kapil Mishra who campaigned very hard across Delhi and Gautam Gambhir, in whose area - East Delhi - the BJP gave its best performance.
It remains to be seen whether Kapil Mishra, Gambir, or others like Parvesh Verma or Ramesh Bidhuri will end up becoming the main face of the Delhi BJP in the run-up to the 2025 Assembly election.
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