How Accurate Were the Madhya Pradesh Exit Poll Results in 2018 Assembly Election

MP: Check what the prominent exit polls had predicted in 2018, and whether they matched the final results.

The final results of the Madhya Pradesh Assembly elections 2023 will only come in on counting day, 3 December, but as polling concludes, different pollsters and news channels are releasing their exit poll results.

Exit polls are usually seen as an indicator of polling trends. Sometimes, they have proven to be in sync with the final results, but on other occasions, they have ended up being inaccurate.

So, how accurate were the exit polls in the previous Madhya Pradesh Assembly election, in 2018?

Here's what the prominent exit polls had predicted in 2018. Let's take a look at the numbers before we get down to the detailed analysis.

Poll-by-Poll Analysis: Who Got It Right, Who Was off the Mark?

Times Now's CNX was wrong in their prediction of BJP winning a majority of the seats at 126 and Congress coming in second with 89 seats.

Republic's Jan ki Baat was off the mark as they predicted BJP winning a majority of seats and Congress coming in second, however they were right in their forecast of the tally range for the two parties and Others.

Republic CVoter was incorrect in predicting the seat-range for BJP but got it right for the Congress.

India Today's Axis my India was accurate in their tallies for BJP and Congress giving it a range of 102-120 and 104-122 respectively. However, it underestimated the number of seats won by Others.

NewX's Neta was right in predicting that Congress would become the single largest party. They underestimated BJP's and overestimated the haul of Others.

Today's Chanakya was right in their forecast of Congress becoming the majority party and BJP coming in the second place.

ABP News' CSDS was right in their forecast of Congress and BJP. However, it overestimated the haul by Congress and underestimated the haul by BJP.

News Nation was accurate in their prediction of Congress emerging as the single largest party and BJP coming in second. But it underestimated the number of seats won by Congress.

India TV was completely off as they predicted BJP would emerge as the single largest party and underestimated Congress' haul giving it a range of 86-92 seats.

NDTV and Zee News were wrong as they predicted BJP with 115 seats and 126 seats respectively to be the majority party and Congress coming in the second place with 105 seats and 89 seats respectively. They overestimated BJP's and Others' haul and underestimated the haul by Congress.

So, out of the eleven exit polls we looked at, five got it completely wrong and two were spot on, the others were right but got the tallies wrong for the parties.

Overall, the contradictions in the results of the different polls in Madhya Pradesh 2018 meant that there was no clear, unanimous pick that came through in the exit polls that year.

Will the exit polls get it right in 2023? None of us will have the answer to that question till 3 December! But do tune in to The Quint on Madhya Pradesh's Counting Day as we get you the answer to that question, and much more, with live news, updates and election results analysis.