The exit polls on Karnataka elections 2023, most of which give an edge for Congress, are divided on who will get to form government in the state with a whopping 224 Assembly seats. But, the prominent polls are unanimous on one matter – Congress is expected to sweep Old Mysuru region, Central Karnataka and Hyderabad or Kalyana Karnataka regions.
While the results may not always tally with the exit poll projections, Congress leadership is certain that they have gained ground in the three pivotal regions which may decide the elections for them. Here’s why.
Why BJP Bastion Central Karnataka May Support Congress
Central Karnataka always resonated with one name – BS Yediyurappa of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). A Lingayat leader, who is credited for building the BJP from scratch in Karnataka, Yediyurappa had not contested elections this time. Though he campaigned for the BJP and his son, BY Vijayendra, contested from Shikaripura, a seat which was earlier held by Yediyurappa, the veteran leader’s reach seems to have remained limited in the region.
As per ABP CVoter exit poll, Congress is expected to win 20 out of the 35 seats in Central Karnataka, with the BJP trailing behind with 14 seats.
As per India Today Axis My India exit poll, the Congress is expected to win 12 out of 23 seats and the BJP is projected to win 10.
The two exit polls have assigned different numbers for total number of seats in the region but the underlying poll trend is projected to be the same, with both predicting an advantage for the Congress.
Why?
The Lingayats are a prominent dominant caste in Karnataka accounting for 17 percent of the state’s population. This community is mostly receptive of religious leadership of mutts or monasteries. Seers of the Lingayat mutts have been critical of the BJP since July 2021, when Yediyurappa had to stepdown as chief minister of Karnataka before the completion of his term.
While Yediyurappa has been saying that he was not pressurised by the Central leadership of the party to stepdown, the word in Lingayat circles and political circles in Karnataka is that a Peshwa Brahmin and BJP’s national general secretary organisation BL Santhosh forced him to handover the reins to Basavaraj Bommai, another Lingayat.
Bommai, meanwhile, proved to be rather different from Yediyurappa in his governance approach and lost the confidence of Lingayat mutts further. Under him, the Panchamasali Lingayats continued to protest for 2A category reservation, indicating a chink the BJP’s Lingayat fort in Central Karnataka districts including Tumakuru, Davanagere, Haveri, Chitradurga, and Shivamogga.
While the BJP tried a last-ditch effort to consolidate the Lingayat vote by offering two percent additional reservation for the community within the Backward Classes list, the party was plagued by the exit of two of its prominent Lingayat faces – former Deputy Chief Minister Laxman Savadi and former Chief Minister Jagadish Shettar. Though Savadi contested from Athani and Shettar from Hubbali-Dharwad which fall in Mumbai or Kittur Karnataka, the fact that they were snubbed by the BJP does seem to have had an effect in Central Karnataka too.
The grand old party, campaigned to establish that Yediyurappa’s loss of face and Savadi and Shettar’s fall from grace reflect poorly on the rising Brahmin influence in the BJP.
“The BJP sidelined Yediyurappa, Shettar and Savadi at the insistence of two Brahmins – BL Santhosh and Pralhad Joshi -- who are important for their central leadership. The Lingayats went with the Congress this election,” a state leader of the Congress told The Quint.
It is believed, Santhosh played a role in denying tickets for Savadi and Shettar and is keen on nominating Joshi to the CM post in Karnataka, if the party were to win.
After the exit polls came out, Shettar himself issued a statement saying the “Lingayats will punish the BJP” in Karnataka. His words did find resonance among Lingayats in Central Karnataka region, where their presence if formidable. It is to be noted that India Today Axis polls has predicted a Congress sweep in Mumbai Karnataka region too.
Meanwhile, Hyderabad Karnataka comprising seems to have gone the Congress way as per the exit polls.
Why Hyderabad Karnataka May Boost Congress Again
As per CVoter Poll, Congress is expected to get 15 seats and the BJP, 13 out of 31 seats. As per India Today Axis Poll, Congress is expected to get 32 out of 40 seats and the BJP seven in Hyderabad Karnataka region. The region comprises Koppal, Ballari, Vijayanagara, Bidar, Yadgir, Kalaburagi, and Raichur districts.
What seems to have primarily worked for the Congress in this region is consolidation of Dalit votes. Dalits comprise 17.5 percent of Karnataka's population and are divided into mostly Left-Dalits (Madiga), Right-Dalits (Holeya), and Touchables.
All India Congress Committee (AICC) President Mallikarjun Kharge is a Holeya, who hails from Kalaburagi in Hyderabad Karnataka region. While the BJP offered six percent reservation for Left-Dalits, above the Right-Dalits who got 5.5 percent reservation within the Scheduled Caste (SC) quota, the Congress wooed the Holeyas who have traditionally been supporting the party.
Boosting the Congress' campaign for Dalits in Hyderabad Karnataka, the Dalit Sagharsha Samiti, an umbrella organisation comprising 12 Dalit outfits, also offered support to the party.
But it is not just the Dalits who seem to have tipped the balance in Hyderabad Karnataka. In the region, a new political player – former BJP leader Gali Janardhana Reddy’s Kalyana Rajya Pragati Paksha (KRPP) – had emerged. Janardhan Reddy, who took a stand against communalism while announcing his party, brought to the fore the story of another political leader who was shown the door by the BJP central leadership. Reddy, who has influence in Ballari and surrounding districts, is a mining baron who was accused of illegal mining worth crore of rupees. He fell out of the BJP’s favour when the scam got exposed in 2011 and has since been overseeing his own business empire. His brother, Gali Somashekara Reddy is a BJP leader who contested even this time from the Ballari seat.
When the results come out on 13 May, the impact Janardhan Reddy made in some six constituencies of Kalyana Karnataka will be known.
However, the Congress seems to have gobbled up even the seats of JD(S), as per the exit polls. The Janata Dal (Secular) is expected to take a hit in the Old Mysuru region where their influence has been strong for years.
Old Mysuru Region May Have Witnessed Swing of Ahinda, Vokkaliga Votes
Congress leader and former Chief Minister of Karnataka Siddaramaiah contested from Varuna in Mysuru. His campaign strategy has been to consolidate the Ahinda (Dalit, OBC and Minority) votes in the region. “Siddaramaiah never compromised on taking on the RSS and he always gave importance to the Ahinda ideology. This will work for the Congress,” a leader close to Siddaramaiah told The Quint. The JD(S) which dilly dallied over alliance talks with the BJP, may not have got these votes.
In this region, CVoter poll had predicted that the Congress will bag 30 out of 55 seats and the JD(S) will get only 21. Axis My India has predicted 36 out of 64 seats for the Congress and 18 seats for the JD(S).
In the Old Mysuru region, comprising Mysuru, Chamarajanagar, Bengaluru Rural, Kolar, Chikkaballapur, and Mandya, another caste equation may have worked for the Congress as the party may have gathered the support of Vokkaligas, out besting the Gowda family – HD Devegowda and sons HD Revanna and HD Kumaraswamy. Here, KPCC President DK Shivakumar’s influence as a Vokkaliga leader may have played a role.
A Congress leader told The Quint, “The Congress has given prominence to Vokkaliga leaders and Shivakumar is at the helm of affairs here. We have convinced the community that Congress can be an alternative to JD(S).”
Will the counting day, 13 May, yield the same results as exit polls and bring Congress to power? Or does the BJP have another arrow in its quiver?
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