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Exit polls have predicted a photo-finish in Himachal Pradesh between the BJP and the Congress.
The India Today-Axis My India Exit Poll has given a slight edge to the Congress, though it has still hedged its bets on whether the party will win a clear majority or not.
In terms of vote share, the Exit Poll predicts 44 percent for the Congress, 42 percent for the BJP, 2 percent for AAP and 12 percent for others.
In terms of seats, the Exit Poll predicts 30 to 40 seats for the Congress, 24 to 34 seats for the BJP, 4 to 8 seats for others and zero for AAP.
However, the ABP-CVoter, Times Now-ETG and the Republic-PMARQ Exit Polls have predicted the opposite - an edge to the BJP.
The ABP-CVoter Exit Poll has predicted that the BJP could get 33-41 seats and the Congress could get 24-32. In terms of vote share, it has predicted 45 percent for BJP and 41 percent for the Congress.
What Explains This?
The divergence in the predictions in Himachal Pradesh is largely due to the problems of surveying in the state. This is a state where constituencies are small - barely 80,000 voters on an average. It is also an predominantly rural state with over 80 percent of the electorate living in rural and often very remote areas.
Therefore surveying is a major challenge here and predicting an even bigger challenge as several seats are decided with margins of less than 1000 votes.
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Region and Caste Variations
The Axis poll has predicted a clear caste divide in Himachal Pradesh, with the BJP enjoying a slight lead among Upper Castes but the Congress making up for the deficit with a huge 15 percentage point lead among Dalit voters. Dalits account for over 25 percent of the population in Himachal Pradesh.
In terms of region, the Exit Poll indicates that the Congress has done better in the Kangra-Chamba belt and the Greater Shimla region while the BJP has done better in Mandi, where CM Jai Ram Thakur comes from.
The Exit Poll also gives Congress a sizable lead in urban areas - 51 percent as compared to 37 for the BJP.
The Quint had reported during the elections how the Congress gave the BJP a run for its money, by taking six steps such as running a localised campaign to raising the Old Pension Scheme issue.
Here's how Exit Polls have fared in the past in Himachal Pradesh.
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