For the Congress government under CM Bhupesh Baghel, the battle for Chhattisgarh assembly elections 2023 looked tough but not unwinnable; however, the results seem to have turned down all guesses, along with Congress' hope for a return as the Bharatiya Janata Party inches closer to a decisive victory.
The BJP is looking at a solid comeback in the 90-seat Chhattisgarh assembly, which polled in two phases on 7 and 17 November.
The Congress government under incumbent CM Bhupesh Baghel, which had won with a sweeping majority in previous elections, winning 68 out of 90 seats, failed to retain the voter connect despite playing heavily on farmers, tribals, cash-transfer schemes, and even Hindutva politics.
Below are the five factors that contributed to BJP's success in the 2023 Chhattisgarh Assembly Elections.
1. BJP's Late But Solid Campaigning, Focus on Micro Management
BJP, which remained absent for most of CM Baghel's five-year tenure, picked up pace earlier this election year and was systematic in its approach to corner Baghel's government over issues like corruption, scams, and conversion issues in the state.
While Congress attempted to conjoin their push to regional identity and their Hindutva politics, their stand on Hindutva seems to have benefited the BJP in unexpected ways.
An example of it is the recent communal incident that occurred in the Saja assembly constituency in the Bemetara district of Chhattisgarh where a Hindu boy was killed in riots and a Muslim father-son duo were also killed post riots.
Despite the Congress' choice to announce compensation and jobs for the Hindu boy only, the Hindutva narrative, which is BJP's patent political stance, helped them consolidate the Hindu votes in their favour.
BJP also systematically drilled down the corruption allegations in the masses against the Congress government as well as the CM.
The Chhattisgarh BJP, which didn't project any leader as their CM candidate, was operated by home minister Amit Shah himself, who is known for his micro-management skills in elections.
2. Corruption Allegations Muddied Waters for Congress
The continuous allegations of corruption on the Congress government, starting from the coal levy scam allegations to the recent Mahadev app betting scam, tarnished the image of the Congress government in the state.
Congress may keep defending itself in the legal systems, but it cannot be denied that the allegations of corruption have harmed Congress in the eyes of the voters.
The message that this government seems to be involved in corruption cases in some way or the other hurt the Bhupesh Baghel led Congress government in Chhattisgarh, not allowing him to maintain a clean image of his government.
3. Started the Caste-Focusses Election Rhetoric Couldn't Handle it?
The Congress government in Chhattisgarh was focused on OBC appeasement and the caste-focused elections but failed miserably in driving their vision and version among the masses.
The Sahu voters of the state who form a majority to OBC vote bank had sided with the Congress in 2018 assembly elections; however, due to the further segregation in OBC politics, the ignorance of Tamradhwaj Sahu, a prominent Sahu leader who remained in the shadows, also hampered Congress' connect with the OBC voters.
The talks around OBC representation, although did not begin in Chhattisgarh, but were promptly picked by the Baghel government.
However, the political thoughts didn't manifest in votes and the Congress is looking at a shocking defeat in Chhattisgarh.
4. In-Fighting, Weakened Organisation Led to Congress' Defeat
The party that overthrew their rivals and limited them to mere 15 seats after a 15-year-long rule failed to further strengthen its organization which could deliver the message to the households.
The infighting between deputy CM TS Singhdeo and CM Baghel over the alleged seat-sharing formula agreed upon by them led to the weakening of the organization which further resulted in the loose campaigning during the elections.
Singhdeo, in an interview to media after the polling, had pointed out that in-fighting has had its impact and is dangerous to continue with it.
Another visible rift stemming out of the unstable relationship between the former Congress party president Mohan Markam and CM Bhupesh Baghel dented the overall morale of the cadre who felt already ignored.
5. Modi Magic Worked in BJP on First-Time Voters, Urban Electorate
While the BJP leaders who were themselves not convinced of their chance at the government, in the run-up to the Chhattisgarh assembly elections, are looking at a strong win in the state and have already started attributing it to PM Modi’s connection with the voters.
BJP promised 2 lakh government jobs in the elections. It is believed that the youth, especially the first-time voters, placed their trust in the saffron party in the name of PM Modi who was actively invested in rallies and campaigning in Chhattisgarh over the last few months.
The announcement of paddy procurement at ₹3100 and the payment in one instalment, unlike Congress' EMI payment scheme along with the promise of cash transfer to women of the state, have helped the BJP in clinching a surprising and massive victory.
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