Countries globally are projected to experience 114 additional hot days per year if the 2.6°C global warming threshold is not met, according to a new study titled Ten Years of the Paris Agreement: The Present and Future of Extreme Heat.
In India, due to human-induced climate change, high pre-monsoon season temperatures, like those seen in 2022, are now about 30 times more likely than they would have been without human influence.
The study, conducted jointly by Climate Central and World Weather Attribution (WWA), analysed global heat conditions across past and future warming scenarios to emphasise the need to meet the agreed-upon global warming threshold.
10 Years of the Paris Agreement: More Hot Days Loom Without Action
1. 'Surge in Hot Days': Key Findings of the Study
The study analysed global heating patterns from 2015 to 2024, since the Paris Agreement, and found,
Since the agreement was signed, global temperatures have risen by 0.3°C, from 1.0°C to 1.3°C above pre-industrial levels, already fueling more extreme heat.
On average, over the past decade, countries worldwide have experienced 11 more hot days per year compared with the decade before the Paris Agreement (2005-2014).
In 10 countries, the 0.3°C of warming since 2015 has led to an average of at least 30 additional hot days per year.
The top 10 countries on this list are all small Island states and island territories, which are particularly vulnerable to intensified heat extremes and rising climate risks.
101 out of 207 countries have seen an average of 10 or more extra hot days annually.
Three of the six extreme heat events analysed (specifically heatwaves in Southern Europe, Burkina Faso and Mali, and the Amazon River Basin) were almost exclusively caused by human-induced climate change.
In India and Pakistan, extreme heat led to more than 90 heat-related deaths, glacial-lake outburst floods and forest fires, and also caused reduced wheat yields and power shortages.
Expand2. Has the Paris Agreement Helped in 10 years?
The analysis finds that the Paris Agreement has in fact helped lower projections of catastrophic global warming.
According to the analysis, the agreement has helped reduce projected global warming from a "baseline" of about 4°C in 2015 to 2.6°C today.
The implementation of current emissions reduction commitments, the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), by countries seems to have worked in this regard.
Yet, 2.6°C is still well above the Paris Agreement's target of limiting warming to between 1.5°C and 2°C, and as the study findings underscore, current pledges remain insufficient to avoid dangerous temperatures.
Based on past data, the study projects a stark future if timely action is not taken. Without adequate mitigation, the world could see 57 extra hot days per year and extreme events. While this is better than the pre-Paris Agreement scenario, it's still dangerously high.
The study also points out that although early warning systems for extreme heat events and action plans have expanded since 2015, adaptation remains insufficient.
Achieving the Paris Agreement goals requires the highest possible ambition for deep, rapid, and sustained emissions reductions, said the study authors.
“Adaptation and mitigation are both important as highlighted in the Paris Agreement. The only way forward is to cut emissions. Countries need to be more ambitious and those with historical responsibility leading the way. Further, we need more financing for adaptation; loss and damage to secure lives, livelihoods and societal wellbeing," Emmanuel Raju from the Copenhagen Centre for Disaster Research, one of the authors of the study, told The Quint.
Expand3. The Road Ahead: Adaptation Has Limits Without Climate Action
The study's findings solidify what has long been evident, that the costs of inaction are rising faster than progress on adaptation.
Despite growing awareness and frameworks in place, the study points to progress on heat adaptation being uneven. Gaps in knowledge, weak monitoring, and political instability are slowing policy development and implementation.
Extreme heat is still underreported in many regions due to unclear definitions, weak legal frameworks, poor data collection, and differing climate conditions. This leads to a lag in practical action on the ground, especially in finance, governance, and long-term planning.
Tackling low physiological tolerance, unequal access to cooling, and structural inequalities, as per the study authors, will require deeper emission cuts and faster adaptation to help communities cope with rising temperatures.
Heat early warning systems (HEWS) and heat-health action plans are cost-effective tools that save lives.
Yet, major gaps remain. Only about half of weather services issue extreme heat warnings, and few systems consider varying health risks.
Existing plans also often focus on short-term health responses and rarely integrate urban planning, labour protection, infrastructure, or social policy.
Warnings are often too broad to reach the most vulnerable, and few plans consider maternal, newborn, and child health risks.
According to the study's findings, scaling up robust, health-focused systems could prevent nearly 100,000 deaths annually.
The bottom line is that true adaptation requires addressing root causes and structural risks, and without rapid, sustained reductions in fossil fuel use, adaptation alone will not be enough.
Expand
'Surge in Hot Days': Key Findings of the Study
The study analysed global heating patterns from 2015 to 2024, since the Paris Agreement, and found,
Since the agreement was signed, global temperatures have risen by 0.3°C, from 1.0°C to 1.3°C above pre-industrial levels, already fueling more extreme heat.
On average, over the past decade, countries worldwide have experienced 11 more hot days per year compared with the decade before the Paris Agreement (2005-2014).
In 10 countries, the 0.3°C of warming since 2015 has led to an average of at least 30 additional hot days per year.
The top 10 countries on this list are all small Island states and island territories, which are particularly vulnerable to intensified heat extremes and rising climate risks.
101 out of 207 countries have seen an average of 10 or more extra hot days annually.
Three of the six extreme heat events analysed (specifically heatwaves in Southern Europe, Burkina Faso and Mali, and the Amazon River Basin) were almost exclusively caused by human-induced climate change.
In India and Pakistan, extreme heat led to more than 90 heat-related deaths, glacial-lake outburst floods and forest fires, and also caused reduced wheat yields and power shortages.
Has the Paris Agreement Helped in 10 years?
The analysis finds that the Paris Agreement has in fact helped lower projections of catastrophic global warming.
According to the analysis, the agreement has helped reduce projected global warming from a "baseline" of about 4°C in 2015 to 2.6°C today.
The implementation of current emissions reduction commitments, the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), by countries seems to have worked in this regard.
Yet, 2.6°C is still well above the Paris Agreement's target of limiting warming to between 1.5°C and 2°C, and as the study findings underscore, current pledges remain insufficient to avoid dangerous temperatures.
Based on past data, the study projects a stark future if timely action is not taken. Without adequate mitigation, the world could see 57 extra hot days per year and extreme events. While this is better than the pre-Paris Agreement scenario, it's still dangerously high.
The study also points out that although early warning systems for extreme heat events and action plans have expanded since 2015, adaptation remains insufficient.
Achieving the Paris Agreement goals requires the highest possible ambition for deep, rapid, and sustained emissions reductions, said the study authors.
“Adaptation and mitigation are both important as highlighted in the Paris Agreement. The only way forward is to cut emissions. Countries need to be more ambitious and those with historical responsibility leading the way. Further, we need more financing for adaptation; loss and damage to secure lives, livelihoods and societal wellbeing," Emmanuel Raju from the Copenhagen Centre for Disaster Research, one of the authors of the study, told The Quint.
The Road Ahead: Adaptation Has Limits Without Climate Action
The study's findings solidify what has long been evident, that the costs of inaction are rising faster than progress on adaptation.
Despite growing awareness and frameworks in place, the study points to progress on heat adaptation being uneven. Gaps in knowledge, weak monitoring, and political instability are slowing policy development and implementation.
Extreme heat is still underreported in many regions due to unclear definitions, weak legal frameworks, poor data collection, and differing climate conditions. This leads to a lag in practical action on the ground, especially in finance, governance, and long-term planning.
Tackling low physiological tolerance, unequal access to cooling, and structural inequalities, as per the study authors, will require deeper emission cuts and faster adaptation to help communities cope with rising temperatures.
Heat early warning systems (HEWS) and heat-health action plans are cost-effective tools that save lives.
Yet, major gaps remain. Only about half of weather services issue extreme heat warnings, and few systems consider varying health risks.
Existing plans also often focus on short-term health responses and rarely integrate urban planning, labour protection, infrastructure, or social policy.
Warnings are often too broad to reach the most vulnerable, and few plans consider maternal, newborn, and child health risks.
According to the study's findings, scaling up robust, health-focused systems could prevent nearly 100,000 deaths annually.
The bottom line is that true adaptation requires addressing root causes and structural risks, and without rapid, sustained reductions in fossil fuel use, adaptation alone will not be enough.