AC Boom in the Coming Years Will Test India's Power Grid: What Needs to Change?

ACs alone could drive 120 GW of peak power demand by 2030. The time to prepare is now, experts tell The Quint.

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A few days ago, a video showing hundreds of people sleeping on Versova beach, in one of Mumbai’s busiest coastal neighbourhoods, went viral. This wasn't an act of leisure, but a desperate response to increasingly harsh conditions—soaring heat, oppressive humidity, high night-time temperatures, and, compounding it all, prolonged power cuts.

This came just days after another video, posted on X by a woman from Navi Mumbai's Ulwe area, was widely shared online. In the clip posted on 7 June, she explains that for nearly two weeks, there were power cuts almost daily between 11 pm and 5 am, disrupting the few hours of sleep she gets after her long workdays.

"I'm sorry, I can't bear this trauma anymore. I haven't slept in a week," she says in the video. Frustrated by the lack of relief, she walked into a local electricity office, carrying a pillow, to draw attention to the persistent late-night outages.

Power cuts are neither a one-off problem nor just confined to Mumbai. As mounting demand places increasing stress on India's power grid, residents across major Indian cities have been left grappling with prolonged power cuts.

Bengaluru, for instance, saw two-day-long power cuts in several areas from 20 to 23 June. Last month, Gurugram experienced a major outage that disrupted Rapid Metro services for nearly an hour, leaving dozens of passengers stranded inside a train.

Even high-profile ministers cannot seem to escape this. On 16 June, the Rajasthan State Secretariat lost power for nearly 20 minutes—just days after a 15-minute outage interrupted Railway Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw's press conference in Jaipur.

The bad news is that this is not merely a seasonal disruption. Experts warn that the problem is likely to worsen as temperatures continue to rise. What, then, is driving these outages—and what will it take for India to fix them?

India's Surging Peak Power Demand

India's power demand has increased significantly over the years, driven largely by rising residential consumption rather than industrial demand.

In May, India recorded its highest-ever peak power demand, reaching 270.8 GW on 21 May, according to the Union Ministry of Power. Compare this to the 230.99 GW recorded in May 2025.

The rise has been steady. Peak demand reached 242.49 GW in June 2025, up from 250 GW in May 2024, which had itself surpassed the previous record of 243.27 GW set in September 2023.

This year, Maharashtra recorded the highest contribution to the day’s peak demand at 31.5 GW, followed by Uttar Pradesh (29 GW) and Gujarat (25.9 GW).

According to officials from Mumbai's Brihanmumbai Electric Supply and Transport (BEST), electricity demand in the city crossed 1,000 MW as recently as on 9 June.

Officials at BEST attributed the spike to increased use of air conditioners and other power-intensive household appliances as residents grappled with persistent heat and humidity.

Adani Electricity, which serves large parts of Mumbai, also reported a sharp rise in consumption, with demand on 9 June up 53 percent compared with the same period last year.

This figure is further projected to grow by over 30 percent by 2030, driven by emerging sectors such as AI-enabled data centres and electric mobility, said Union Power Minister Manohar Lal at the Bharat Electricity Summit 2026.

A study published by researchers at Goldman School of Public Policy, UC Berkeley, highlights that India adds 10-15 million new ACs annually, with another 130-150 million expected over the next decade.

Without policy intervention, ACs alone could drive 120 GW of peak power demand by 2030 and 180 GW by 2035—over 30 percent of the projected national peak demand of around 400 GW (2030) and around 600 GW (2035).

"ACs are already contributing 60-70 GW to peak demand, and their growth is outpacing the grid’s ability to keep up after sunset,” Nikit Abhyankar, the study’s lead author and UC Berkeley faculty member, tells The Quint. “Without intervention, we risk blackouts or costly emergency fixes."

What's Behind Power Outages

The Union Ministry of Power said India was comfortably able to meet its all-time high peak electricity demand of over 270.8 GW on the afternoon of 21 May.

As per the ministry, the total installed power generation capacity has reached over 520 GW in 2026. Of this, 47.7 percent comes from fossil fuel-based sources, and the remaining 52.3 percent from non-fossil fuel sources.

The total capacity is expected to touch 600 GW next year as the country expands renewable energy, thermal power, and energy storage infrastructure, Aadhar Raj, Joint Secretary, Ministry of Power, was quoted as saying by ANI.

So, if rising demand is being successfully met, as the government claims, why are prolonged night-time outages still occurring?

"The problem is not a lack of power generation. The problem lies in our distribution and transmission infrastructure", Ashish Fernandes, founder of Climate Risk Horizons, a research organisation focused on data-driven analysis, explains to The Quint.

Even as the overall demand for electricity is increasing, the unexpected peak demand is testing the limits of this inadequate system to carry power from the point of generation to the consumer.

Sarada Prasanna Das, Fellow, Sustainable Futures Collaborative, New Delhi, tells The Quint:

"On any given day you have a certain time of the day when the electricity demand peaks. It only becomes a problem when that peak demand exceeds expectations. During the summer, this happens mostly because of the cooling needs."

When you add heat to that peak demand, you experience outages, Das explains.

"Your cables, transmitters, and towers are already heated, and if the system is already running at a rated capacity (80 to 100 percent) in terms of electricity flow, there are bound to be outages and disruption which happens in pockets."

"And it is not just external heat contributing to the problem. There is also internal heat generated by stress on the power system due to high demand. So, you have both internal and external heat acting together. When both forms of stress combine, they strain the system and can lead to outages," adds Das.

This explains the recent spate of major power failures, including fires in power grids and transformer burnouts, coinciding with rising peak demand across cities.

At the same time, several state-owned distribution companies (DISCOMS) also struggle with ageing infrastructure, limited transformer capacity, and persistently high Aggregate Technical and Commercial (AT&C) losses (electricity that is produced but doesn’t bring money back to the power company).

"Whatever distribution networks exist today have been in place for a long time, and they have not been significantly upgraded. Any improvements happening are incremental and very slow. Because of this, breakdowns continue to occur."

Sarada Prasanna Das

India’s Power Mix is Still Coal-Heavy

2024-25 marked a turning point, with non-fossil sources, both renewables and nuclear, accounting for most of the additional electricity generation. Renewables alone contributed nearly one-third of this growth, signalling a possible shift away from fossil-fuel dependence.

This shift is supported by record renewable energy investments, a decline in coal’s share of installed capacity to 47 percent in 2024, rapid rooftop solar expansion, and over 73 GW of new utility-scale solar and wind capacity tendered, according to the Ministry of Power.

However, according to experts, during peak demand periods—especially when demand exceeds expectations at night—India still has to rely heavily on coal.

"While daytime peak demand is not a major issue, the evening peak is more challenging. This is because solar generation tapers off after 3-4 pm, and plants cannot ramp up output significantly after that. As a result, the load during these hours falls largely on coal-based power, increasing stress on the system," explains Das.

According to experts, India’s sustained record levels of coal production, along with ongoing construction of new coal plants, risk locking the country into a carbon-intensive future.

Why Is Electricity Demand Spiking at Night Now?

"If you look at long-term data, the number of heatwave days or maximum temperatures has not increased more than average. But what we are seeing is prolonged heat," explains Kartiki Negi, Lead, Climate Impacts at Climate Trends. She goes on underscore, "What has changed over the past few years is that night temperatures have risen significantly. What is happening now is that the difference between maximum and minimum temperatures is shrinking, a phenomenon known as diurnal variation."

"Earlier, even when Delhi (or much of northwest India) saw daytime highs of 45-46°C, night temperatures would typically drop to around 24-25°C. That cooling is no longer happening. And that shift is the real game changer."

Kartiki Negi, Lead, Climate Impacts at Climate Trends

Experts say this trend can be more dangerous than the rise in daytime maximum temperatures alone, and the primary reason for it is the increase in concretisation, construction, and high-rise buildings in urban cities leading to a phenomenon called the 'urban heat island'.

The Quint has extensively reported on urban heat islands and rising city temperatures. In one such story, Earth System Scientist Prof Raghu Murtugudde explained, "Because modern buildings in cities are tall and there's very little space between them, the heat, which should dissipate after sunset, just bounces between the buildings and gets trapped."

Moreover, it is not just the rising temperature that matters. When humidity is factored in, conditions become more dangerous.

We also need to talk about the “feels-like” effect, says Negi. "Even if the temperature reads 44°C, that alone doesn’t capture the real intensity. For Delhi, 44°C in May is not unusual. But this is not the same 44°C as in 2014, 2020, or the early 2000s. Today, a 44°C day can feel like 48°C or even higher."

More heat inevitably means higher use of ACs, which are also contributing towards the warming of the climate of that particular area, leading to more ACs required, and the cycle continues, driving up your power demand with it.

India's Ambitious Renewable Growth Outpaces its Grid Capacity

Renewables are expanding rapidly in India, driven by supportive policy and falling costs. That progress reduces import dependence and helps build cleaner, more sustainable domestic energy.

However, one of the key gaps remains that the grid cannot yet absorb much of the renewable energy already being produced, and large-scale storage infrastructure remains nascent.

Over 50 GW of renewable capacity is stranded nationwide due to transmission bottlenecks. We have 7 GW of pumped hydro plus 1.08 GWh (1,082 MWh) of battery storage as of 31 December 2025 as per Mercom India's Annual 2025 India’s Energy Storage Landscape Report.

Still, this is far from the projected requirement of 208 GWh of Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) by 2030, explains Anjal Prakash, Clinical Associate Professor (Research) and Research Director at the Bharti Institute of Public Policy, Indian School of Business.

To close this gap, India’s rapid expansion of renewable energy capacity must be matched with stronger systems for its absorption and integration.

"Solar is now the second largest energy source in the electricity pie, its supply remains at around 25 percent. Energy storage needs to be scaled up to boost round-the-clock renewable energy supply to the grid. Additionally, decentralised renewable energy, either through residential rooftop solar or industrial decarbonisation, and agri-solar needs to catch pace in the states. This would not only reduce the energy load on their grid but also increase the share of green energy in the overall energy ecosystem," Shreya Jai, Energy Lead at Climate Trends, tells The Quint.

While regulations are beginning to address storage at the utility scale, experts say the framework is still at a nascent stage. “New plants have regulations to store a certain amount of power as per their capacity… basically a percentage of their capacity, but it’s in a very early stage,” says Das.

The economics of storage remain another major constraint. “If you invest in storage, then the cost of power increases. For example, if solar power is around Rs 2.9 per unit, adding storage can take it to Rs 5-5.5 per unit,” Das says.

He goes on to say that costs will only come down if battery technology becomes significantly cheaper. “Unless batteries become cheaper, the overall cost of power will remain high. Once that happens, everything becomes cheaper and more viable.”

Fernandes of Climate Risk Horizons, on the other hand, has a more optimistic view for the near future. "The economics is quite clear that renewable energy and battery storage is now the cheapest, most cost-effective way to meet growing electricity demand (when compared to fossil fuels). These need to be prioritised over outdated generation technologies such as coal or gas."

He adds that the gestation period or the time to construct for renewable energy and battery energy storage systems (BESS) is also a fraction of that needed for centralised systems such as coal plants.

"Climate Risk Horizon's analysis (recently released for Rajasthan) shows that solar+BESS is now able to provide power at nearly half the cost of new coal power."

"So if we are talking about meeting demand growth for next year or 2028, there really is only one solution, and that is renewable energy+BESS."

Ashish Fernandes

The challenges that remain are mobilising investment, rationalising the electricity market to incentivise these investments and resisting the political power of the coal and fossil fuel interests.

A Warning and Opportunity for India’s Clean Energy Push

The global energy crisis has been widely viewed by experts that The Quint spoke to as both a warning and an opportunity for India’s energy transition.

“The global energy crisis won’t affect India directly, but it is a lesson that creates an opportunity to promote storage,” says Akelhya Datta, Director, Electricity and Renewables Division (Energy Programme), at TERI.

Experts say the crisis has also exposed the risks of India’s exposure to volatile global fuel markets. “That mismatch leaves the transition vulnerable to global shocks. Recent disruptions—from the Russia-Ukraine war to tensions in the Strait of Hormuz—have shown how exposed India remains to international fuel market volatility. A supply shock that drives up fossil fuel prices can slow renewable investment, heighten demand for critical minerals, and compound import vulnerabilities that make each subsequent disruption worse,” says Prakash.

However, others argue the crisis has also underscored the the case for transitioning to renewable energy.

“It is a misconception that there has been a rise in fossil fuel dependence due to the global energy crisis. In fact, without the growth in renewable energy, the crisis would have been much more severe. What the crisis has exposed is how economically risky reliance on fossil fuels is, and how countries with a greater renewable energy share were more resilient,” says Fernandes.

He adds that the crisis should serve as a structural turning point in India’s energy strategy. “The current global energy crisis should be a turning point for India, just as it has been for other Asian countries. It is foolish for us to be dependent on energy imports on an ongoing basis, as is the case with oil, gas and even to some extent coal. Renewable energy is the answer to this conundrum—electrifying industrial processes and ensuring that we can generate electricity without being dependent on imports is crucial to our economic independence."

Even if building up that renewable energy capacity means a short-term import of solar or battery cells and components, that is still preferable to importing fossil fuels on an ongoing basis.

"It is better to import a battery or solar panel that can feed the grid for years, than a tonne of oil or coal that needs to be replenished as soon as it is burnt.”

Ashish Fernandes, founder of Climate Risk Horizons

When it comes to the future, Prakash says, “Asking ‘what will happen?’ is the wrong question. The right one is ‘what could happen, and are we ready?’"

"That’s what scenario planning does: preparing for multiple plausible futures, not predicting one outcome. It brings energy, trade, and security stakeholders together to stress-test strategies across scenarios—oil price shocks, climate events, supply cuts—and build flexibility to adapt quickly.”

Anjal Prakash

The Quint has sent a detailed questionnaire to the Ministry of Power on the government’s plans to address gaps in energy storage and distribution systems in the country. The story will be updated once a response is received.