Finance Minister Arun Jaitley is likely to borrow more than originally planned when he presents the Budget on 1 February, senior aides and officials said, despite counting on revenues from a national sales tax whose launch date is still unknown.
Jaitley is looking at how to fund giveaways to taxpayers and higher public investment to help nurse India back to health after the government's demonetisation decision in November. That is raising concern among some economists and investors that the government will take too many fiscal risks.
Yet officials say that, given the choice, they would choose growth sustained by state investment over a fiscal straitjacket.
Arun Jaitley eyes tax giveaways and state investment in 1 February Budget
The Finance Minister may slightly overshoot three percent deficit target
The Budget is likely to assume nominal GDP growth of about 12 percent
Economists are worried by optimistic growth and revenue assumptions
“Some degree of flexibility on fiscal discipline should not be seen as irresponsible fiscal management,” one senior government official said, requesting anonymity.
Fiscal Deficit to Increase Beyond 3% of GDP?
A fiscal advisory panel, which includes Reserve Bank of India Governor Urjit Patel, has advocated widening the Budget deficit to “slightly over” three percent of GDP to free up funds for road, railway and irrigation projects.
“It is not possible to keep up the pace of capital expenditure without increasing the fiscal deficit beyond three percent of GDP,” said an official, briefed on the committee's findings, added.
New Delhi earlier aimed to cut the federal deficit to three percent of GDP over the next two fiscal years, compared with 3.5 percent in the year now drawing to a close.
Independent economists are also pencilling in a higher federal deficit in the coming fiscal year, at 3.3-3.4 percent of GDP, creating room for the government to invest an extra $6 billion.
That has drawn a warning from ratings agency Standard & Poor's, which says that slowing the pace of fiscal consolidation could delay India's chances of an upgrade due to its high and rising debt levels.
Heroic Assumptions
Jaitley’s team forecasts a recovery in nominal GDP growth, the key driver of tax revenues, to around 12 percent in 2017-18. Yet that assumes oil prices of $55-60 per barrel and a long-delayed GST being implemented in July. And the economy is still getting over the demonetisation.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has chopped a percentage point off India's forecast of real economic growth to 6.6 percent in the current fiscal year to March, meaning China regains the crown as the world's fastest-growing large economy.
The Washington-based IMF has also shaved 0.4 of a percentage point off its forecast for the coming fiscal year.
How Will Growth Bounce Back?
Finance ministry officials remain tight-lipped about how quickly they expect growth to bounce back after it slowed following so-called demonetisation.
International prices for crude oil, India's most expensive import item, could meanwhile overshoot the finance ministry's expectations as exporting nations curb output, hurting the growth and revenue outlook.
This budget is presented in a very uncertain situation.NR Bhanumurthy, economist, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy
Modi faces the imminent verdict of voters in five regional elections, most importantly in Uttar Pradesh. A setback there for the Bharatiya Janata Party could harm his chances of winning a second term in 2019.
Election authorities have barred the government from offering targeted Budget 'sops' to buy votes. And even if the government does ramp up public investment in Jaitley's fourth Budget, it has little room for manoeuvre – nearly nine in every Rs 10 it spends go on servicing debt or paying wages and subsidies.
"It will not be a populist, but a pragmatic Budget," said a senior finance ministry official with direct knowledge of Budget planning.
(Published in an arrangement with Reuters)
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