Not Pawn or Proxy, India Must Rise as the Third Pole Against US-Beijing Binary

As global discourse flirts with a US-China G2, India’s strategic autonomy must remain non-negotiable to ensure it rises as a distinct pole, not a pawn in a duopoly.

(Photo: Kamran Akhter/The Quint)

The world loves binaries: East versus West, market versus state, superpower A versus superpower B. India must resist this narrative. Perception is power—if New Delhi appears to slide from partner to proxy under any superpower’s shadow, its hard-earned diplomatic leverage over decades will  erode.

India’s foreign policy should be aligned with interests, not instructions. As global discourse flirts with a US-China G2, India’s strategic autonomy must remain non-negotiable to ensure it rises as a distinct pole, not a pawn in a duopoly.

Post-World War II, during the “Cold War” years , the United States and Soviet Union carved a rigidly bipolar world. The USSR’s collapse in 1991 yielded a unipolar moment dominated by Washington. China’s rise—its GDP projected to reach $25 trillion by 2030, rivalling America’s—now results in talk of a G2 and US leaders have acknowledged this trend: in October 2025, President Donald Trump suggested that global decision-making is increasingly concentrated in Washington and Beijing, framing a G2 world.

From Davos panels to Delhi’s backchannels, global choices are often framed around these two capitals. India cannot allow such binaries to define its destiny.

A Multipolar Reality—Unless it is given Away

Power today is reasonably widely distributed:

1. Europe’s NATO states focus on Russia, committing €50 billion to Ukraine since 2022.

2. Gulf nations invest $200 billion in China-linked Belt and Road projects.

3. Much of ASEAN balances $ 400 billion in Chinese trade with US security ties, asserting its own strategic space.

4. Middle powers such as Brazil, South Africa, and Indonesia, alongside many  African and Latin American nations, secure $70 billion in non-aligned financing in 2024, prioritising growth without dependency.

This multipolar reality  should therefore ensure that no single power dominates. With 1.4 billion citizens, a $3.5 trillion economy, and global diplomatic reach, India is [uniquely] positioned to prevent a G2 world from dictating global rules—but it must grow far beyond its current $3.5 trillion scale to be a truly relevant global pole.

India’s Playbook: The Nehruvian Doctrine, Reforged

Jawaharlal Nehru’s non-alignment was based on idealism given his mindset and prevailing circumstances but can now be restated and reforged on:

1. Partnerships, alliances and not patronage.

2. Dialogue over division.

3. Global South leadership rooted in autonomy.

India has updated this doctrine: securing $30 billion in discounted Russian oil in 2022–23 for energy security, while strengthening the Quad through Malabar 2024 exercises to counter China’s Indo-Pacific assertiveness. Once mocked as indecision, this “flexible equilibrium” is now celebrated and the way forward.

Our Neighbourhood: The First Test

Strategic autonomy begins at home. Pakistan, a nuclear-armed neighbour, remains volatile. In November 2025, Trump alleged Pakistan conducted covert nuclear tests as did Russia, China, and North Korea—a claim Islamabad denied, reaffirming its 1998 moratorium.

Verified or not, such rhetoric underscores South Asia’s role in great-power friction. India must maintain deterrence through $10 billion in border infrastructure and counter-terror capabilities to address Pakistan’s proxy aggression, evident in recurrent cross-border incidents.

Bangladesh, once a cooperative partner, now shows tendencies to lean toward Islamabad. India must ensure that the next democratic government restores trust and connectivity via Chattogram port. Bilateral trade provides tools to encourage a new orientation. Regional stability expands India’s strategic space; drift constrains it.

India and Afghanistan have recently engaged in diplomatic and economic dialogue, signalling India’s intent to shape security and reconstruction frameworks while limiting Pakistan’s influence. ASEAN nations, meanwhile, have emerged as crucial partners in sustaining Indo-Pacific stability, balancing trade with China while preserving sovereignty.

India’s outreach to ASEAN—through summits, maritime exercises, and infrastructure connectivity—cements a coalition of like-minded partners capable of resisting duopolistic pressures. Prime Minister Modi’s recent absence from the ASEAN summit was  a diplomatic mistake which needs be corrected. 

Economic Autonomy: The Currency of Freedom

Sovereignty is measured in economic resilience. India’s rupee–rouble mechanism, facilitating $65 billion in Russia trade in recent years, shields against sanctions. Expanding rupee-based frameworks, like the $1 billion rupee–dirham trade with the UAE in 2023, diversifies risk and asserts monetary independence. Economic tools must serve strategic freedom, not constrain it.

Autonomy is tested in refusal. India must forgo an Indo-US trade deal—potentially worth $10–15 billion—if it constrains defence ties with Russia, limits policy flexibility, or weakens negotiation leverage. Indian industry is already adapting, diversifying exports to West and South Asia, Africa, [Bangladesh], ASEAN, and beyond, with trade growing in double digits. PLI schemes, driving $100 billion in manufacturing investments, bolster resilience.

Recent defence agreements raise questions: Are India’s concessions fully tied to reciprocal gains in trade, technology, or strategic autonomy? Defence alignment must enhance, not erode, India’s leverage. 

Middle East Dynamics: Balancing Tech and Energy

Israel remains central to India’s technology needs, from defence to cybersecurity. At the same time, India must balance engagement with Gulf countries for energy and economic security. The US seeks to maintain Middle East peace, leveraging Saudi Arabia and the UAE to preserve Arab-Israeli normalisation—reducing China’s role as a regional peacemaker. India’s 9/10 million expatriates and $50 billion in Gulf energy imports make this balancing act essential.

Global stature rests on domestic capability. China’s rise to G2 status began with Deng Xiaoping’s reforms. India starts ahead: a billion-strong workforce, democratic scale, and global trust. To convert potential into power:

• Lift manufacturing to 25% of GDP by 2030.

• Sustain 8percent + economic growth, aiming for more.

• Scale up on high tech and deep tech, AI, green energy, and reduce pollution.

• Expand indigenous defense production, with $15 billion in projects like Tejas fighters.

• Harden borders and maritime security, including $5 billion for Andaman naval upgrades.

 Above all, India must avoid internal dissension, culture wars and religious conflict, which invariably hampers growth, and focus on strengthening its institutions like courts and  judiciary and its election related organizations both in the state and centre .

The G3’s That Prevents the G2

India need not join a G2—it must prevent it. A duopoly sidelines the many; multipolarity elevates India. Its 2023 G20 presidency and future BRICS Chairmanship, securing African Union inclusion and some consensus on Ukraine proves that India can shape outcomes, not merely react.

ASEAN partnerships, combined with ties to Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America, position India to lead—or be part of—constructs that counter duopolistic pressures.

India’s calling is clear:

1. Anchor the multipolar world through relationships across regions.

2. Expand ties without dependency.

3. Build capability.

Short-term friction is a fair price for agency. The only enduring doctrine is India first—not India aligned or a vassal state. As Lord Palmerston articulated in 1848, “We have no eternal allies, and we have no perpetual enemies. Only our interests are eternal and perpetual.”

India must internalise this truth. By choosing itself—consistently, confidently—it ensures a world wide enough for many poles, not just two. ASEAN, Africa, the Middle East, the Global South, and Latin America are not just partners—they are pillars of the multipolar order India must champion. And for India to truly claim its place as a global pole, it must grow well beyond its current $3.5 trillion economy—building scale, capability, and leverage commensurate with its population, ambition, and thereby influence.

(Krishnan Srinivasan is a former foreign secretary and author of several fiction and non-fiction books. Manoj Mohanka is a businessman who serves on several corporate boards. This is an opinion piece and the view's expressed are the author's own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)