Kazakhstan's Middle Power Moment Could be a Rare Opportunity for India

Kazakhstan's geostrategic location between China and Russia makes it a middle power, writes Aditi Bhaduri.

In recent times, the Central Asian region, especially Kazakhstan, has made news as a salubrious and low-budget getaway for an increasing number of Indian tourists. But there's more, writes Aditi Bhaduri.

(Photo: Vibhushita Singh/The Quint)

Can the Republic of Kazakhstan be a future pole in a multipolar world? Though it might sound outlandish at first, it may not be entirely improbable. And with good reason.

Attending the Astana International Forum (AIF) 2025 was a journey of discovering Central Asia's largest country, and what it has to offer the world. And as I came to find, it ticks almost all boxes.

The Central Asian region itself is a much overlooked and understudied region. In recent times, it has made news as a salubrious and low-budget getaway for an increasing number of Indian tourists.

But this region, occupying 4,003,451 sq km, with a population of 75 million, is a resource-rich nation, possessing copious oil and gas reserves, and metals like gold, silver, aluminium, bauxite, copper, among others. Five percent of the world's natural gas reserves are to be found here.

Landlocked, it occupies a significant, geopolitically strategic position, extending from the Caspian Sea in the west to the border of western China in the east. It is bounded on the north by Russia and on the south by Iran, Afghanistan, and China. In 2024, the combined GDP of five Central Asian nations surpassed $500 billion.

The Kazakh Bounty

Of these, Kazakhstan stands out as the largest country in the region, and ninth largest in the world, with a 20 million-plus population. Rich in hydrocarbons, Kazakhstan is a major supplier of energy to Europe and China. The country is also rich in rare earth minerals which is the most coveted product in the world today. Kazakhstan produces 19 out of 34 types of raw materials, including uranium, titanium, copper, lithium, cobalt, tungsten, and many others.

It is the largest producer of uranium in the world and the largest supplier of uranium to the world.

And yet, Kazakhstan voluntarily gave up its nuclear weapons arsenal and is dedicated to disarmament, despite having two major nuclear testing sites on its territory.

The world is undergoing a major geopolitical and geo-economic flux. There are two wars underway in the world, both in the Eurasian region. India conducted its own Operation Sindoor last month. Global trade is being remade by unilateral measures of some powers.

The multilateral world order is fragmenting with more countries taking unilateral measures. Here Central Asia as a whole, and Kazakhstan in particular, has a stabilising role to play.

Peace, security and development of this region is conducive for larger security and development of the world.

Kazakhstan's foreign policy is rooted in the protection of sovereignty and territorial integrity of its state, and promotion of dialogue and diplomacy over conflict.

Kazakhstan supports the model of a multipolar world, a system in which independent states interact on the basis of international law, and not under the pressure of globalist ideas, adhering to the concept of "state nationalism"—a desire of countries to preserve their ethno-cultural identity and preserve sovereignty. 

Pro-Multipolarity

The AIF on 29-30 May showcased Kazakhstan's adherence to a multipolar world order, as dignitaries from Europe, like Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, to Africa, like Rwanda President Paul Kagame, graced the forum, as did representatives of a host of United Nations and other multilateral organisations like the Eurasian Development Bank. Its main mandate was the revival of multilateralism based on mechanisms that allow each state to enjoy privileges in relations with all partners.

The key thesis of the forum was that the world as we currently know it is in a state of polarisation and growing violence. However, the age of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and its challenges are incompatible with the logic of old wars and protectionism.

As Kazakhstan President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev outlined, middle powers have a role to play in ensuring a more equitable and just world. Kazakhstan can claim the status of a middle power due to its geostrategic position, situated between China and Russia with whom it shares the longest land border on the world and active foreign policy, striving for a balance of interests with all key players in world politics.

Emerging 'Peacemaker'

Keeping with its principle of privileging dialogue and diplomacy, Kazakhstan has positioned itself as a peacemaker, hosting several dialogues over Syria, known as the Astana process.

A Muslim-majority country, it upholds pluralism, tolerance, the rule of law, and women’s rights.

Seeking to advance dialogue amongst faiths, it launched the 'Congress of Leaders of World and Traditional Religions' initiative of which India is also a member.

While the country's majority community comprises ethnic Kazakhs, it also has ethnic minorities like ethnic Russians, Ukrainians, and Azerbaijanis who live there and hold Kazakh citizenship, many of whom this writer met. They enjoy the same rights and responsibilities as ethnic Kazakhs.

Alongside its international profile and initiatives, Kazakhstan has been making rapid development inside the country in infrastructure, logistics, digitalisation, innovation, information technology, transparency, and the rule of law, and facilitating the ease of doing business. For instance,   Kazakhstan created the International Advisory Council on AI earlier this year. It has established the Astana International Financial Centre for the easier facilitation  of investments and financial operations. Kazakhstan attracted $15.7 billion in foreign direct investment for new projects in 2024, marking an 88 percent increase compared to the previous year. 

While the Caspian Pipeline Consortium remains the main modal for the transportation of Kazakh energy exports to the US, it is also developing alternative routes for transporting goods and cmmodities. Kazakhstan is implementing projects in the field of renewable energy and environmentally friendly fuel, increasing wind and solar energy capacities, and also developing projects for the production of green hydrogen. 

To cap it all, the country has made significant gains in agriculture, recently achieving a record harvest of nearly 27 million tonnes of grain—the highest in the past decade.

Kazakhstan is the region's bread basket and may well turn out to be the world's as it has the potential to feed a billion people, according to experts.

All this not only enhances Kazakhstan’s appeal and significance but makes it a long-term strategic partner that any country would like to have. This is reflected in the fact that countries have been making a beeline for this region. Earlier this year saw the first Central Asia-European Union summit, while later this month the AIF will be hosting the second China-Central Asia summit. Ministerial meetings also continue as well as bilateral summits, as seen in the recent Italy-Kazakhstan as well as the Kazakhstan-Rwanda summit.  

Against this backdrop, the upcoming foreign ministers' meet between Central Asia and India in Delhi this week is opportune. India needs to refocus on Central Asia and revitalise relations with it. Kazakhstan plays a substantial role in this regard.

There is still much goodwill for India there as this writer found out—a residue of Soviet times—but which still exists though two new generations have grown up since. India needs to act for it is middle powers like Kazakhstan that will shape the contours of the future of a multipolar world. 

(The author is an award-winning journalist specialising on Eurasian affairs. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)