Pakistan's domestic issues, including its politics and economy, will keep new army chief Asim Munir engaged, and away from focusing on India.
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This is the second part of the article on new Pakistan Army chief Asim Munir and what his appointment means for India. Read the first part of the article here.
Despite apprehensions over the new Pakistan Army chief Asim Munir’s past stint as the head of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and his apparent role in the Pulwama attack, his policies regarding India are unlikely to be different than what they were under previous generals, experts say.
Analysts argue that Pakistan's domestic issues, including its politics and economy, will keep the new army chief engaged, and away from focusing on India.
The India-Pakistan relationship hit one of its lowest points on February 2019 after a bombing carried out by Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) killed 44 CRPF personnel in Jammu and Kashmir's Pulwama. As ISI chief, Asim Munir was in the thick of things.
Now that Munir is the army chief, presumably the most powerful man in Pakistan, his every statement and every decision will have even a greater impact on the India-Pakistan relationship. His background as the ISI chief is certainly a concern, but it is unlikely to have a major consequence on his role as the army chief.
Munir's predecessor, Bajwa, often advocated for normalising relations with India and spent his energy stabilising politics back home. Michael Kugelman, the Director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center in Washington DC, argues that Bajwa's doctrine of managing tensions with neighbours, including India, will continue under Munir.
India is not going to be a priority issue for the new chief, as he is going to be focused on domestic issues, Kugelman adds.
Ajay Darshan Behera, a long-time watcher of Pakistan, and a professor at the Academy of International Studies, Jamia Millia Islamia, is of the view that the military leadership in Pakistan have more pressing concerns than India right now.
Behera says among the challenges before the new army chief, India is the least on the priority list.
Under Munir, the Pakistani army's stance vis-à-vis Kashmir is unlikely to go through any major change. Kugelman contends that regardless of who heads the Pakistani Army, the Kashmir issue will remain a constant in the country's discourse with India.
"Whether it is General Bajwa or any other chief, the importance of the Pakistani military is on an anti-India stand. So, they have to continue playing the anti-India card, no matter who the army chief is," Lt General Satish Dua (Retd.) told The Quint in a previous conversation before Munir was appointed.
The strictly followed February 2021 LoC ceasefire – a renewal of the 2003 agreement – is unlikely to be impacted, analysts say.
Whatever his personal belief, Munir will not be able to alter the Pakistan Army's core policies, analysts say.
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