While the recent surge in COVID cases seen in India is largely due to Omicron, it does not mean that Delta has weakened, experts contended on Tuesday 11 Janaury.
India on Tuesday 11 Janaury, recorded 1,68,063 new COVID cases, taking the total tally to 8,21,446.
So can we say this is an Omicron wave? While it is relatively easy to test for COVID-19 through a RT-PCR or RAT test, figuring out which variant is responsible requires genome sequencing.
Health experts noted that going by the trend, the majority of the positive cases are likely to be Omicron but confirmation is pending.
Global data, particularly from South Africa, the UK and the US show that over time as new variants emerge, the one which has better transmissibility and immune evasion takes over the preceding variant.
"This just means that there is a variant with better survival advantage and immune evasion ability compared to the previous variant i.e. Delta. But it doesn't mean that Delta has become weak, rather it gave way to a better evolved variant in time," he said.
However, Menon disagreed, saying: "Because Omicron is much more transmissible than Delta, it has effectively displaced Delta while spreading. Delta was largely on the decline in the country anyway, so this was not a surprise."
Further, the health experts said the surge in cases may also be reinfections, or breakthrough infections as seen in other countries.
A recent study showed that the risk of reinfection with Omicron is 5.4 times greater than Delta.
It was "too early" for people infected with Omicron to have cleared the virus and then caught it again, Kingston Mills, Professor of Experimental Immunology at Trinity College Dublin, was quoted as saying to Financial Times. It may be clear in six months' time, he said.
"With luck, the severity of this wave will be less than that of the previous wave, mainly because vaccination levels are high and many were infected in the previous Delta wave. But whether there will be a surge in cases which the health system cannot cope with remains to be seen and this is the main worry at the moment," Menon said.
"We believe that the peak in cases in the metros of India should come between January 20 and February 10. The rest of India may see later peaks, but it is unlikely that we will continue to see substantial numbers of cases by March. That will mean an end to this wave, but there may be more surprises in store for us," Menon said.
(This story was published from a syndicated feed. Only the headline and picture has been edited by FIT)
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