One Comedian, Few Workers, yet AAP Is Being Talked About in Punjab

If indications from Punjab are converted into results, then AAP’s win may indicate a big change in Indian politics.

Bhagwant Mann is touted by many as the CM candidate for AAP in the Punjab elections (Photo: The Quint)

Opinion polls, going rates in satta bazar and the gut feeling of veteran journalists about Punjab have one common element: the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is going to come on top or occupy the second place when election results are declared.

The AAP’s impressive performance is largely attributed to the party’s strong performance in the politically significant Malwa region. There are 69 Assembly seats in Malwa and whoever does well in this region, is expected to form government in the state.

What If the AAP Does as Well as It Is Predicted To

If early indications coming from Punjab indeed turn out to be true, it means a big shift is taking place in the country’s politics. AAP has no big star face in Punjab. The party is being led by a comedian who promises a drug-free Punjab. A simple Google search would reveal the underlying reality of this promise. The party is largely banking on a small band of dedicated workers. Few big rallies, fewer roadshows, and a very small list of star speakers – the AAP does not have the edge that other parties do.

There have been whispers that that if the AAP wins in Punjab, Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal will shift to Punjab. This would mean that an outsider, a non-Sikh would be Punjab's Chief Minister for the first time. Such discussions have surrounded the AAP in Punjab before elections. This implies that people are aware of the possible developments in the state after the elections. If the AAP still manages to capture a sizeable vote share and significantly large number of seats, it will break many election myths in India.

An outsider, a politician who doesn’t belong to a majority community, a party which is using unconventional ways to collect campaign fund without any established political face for the electorate, is pretty much what the AAP has in Punjab. Such attributes have seldom fetched votes. 

Are Indians Disillusioned with Traditional Politics?

An AAP win in Punjab will also be a comment on big political parties and leaders. If AAP wins in Punjab, it’s a clear indication that people are disillusioned with traditional politics.

Big promises, the distance between the politicians and the people, influence of money and muscle in the elections and disenchantment with big political faces — these are issues which are constantly jolting voters.

Is Punjab going to take a step forward and give its verdict, which is going to defy the conventional logic?

When AAP Wins in a Two-Party System

Interestingly, Punjab follows the two-party system. The Akalis and the Congress have ruled the state for decades. The BJP has been an ally of the Akalis. In such a scenario, if a new entrant changes the rule of the game, it is a big subaltern political statement. And its impact will be seen in every state where either the BJP or the Congress has been in straight contest all these years.

It's not that everything going well in the AAP. Recent events have shown that Kejriwal's AAP is not very different from other parties.

What is perhaps helping the AAP is the baggage it carries, which is on the lighter side at the moment when compared to other established players. Should others not sit up and take note? Opinion polls should be seen as a wake-up call for established political parties.