Exit Polls 2019: Most Pollsters Predict NDA Crossing 300 Mark
The BJP is predicted to have made inroads in West Bengal and Odisha.
CVoter and Times Now-VMR surveys on Sunday, 19 May predicted a clear majority to BJP-led NDA, with 287 and 306 out of 542 seats, respectively. News18-IPSOS predicted similarly, giving 336 seats to the NDA, while the India Today-Axis My India exit poll has predicted an overwhelming majority of 339-365 seats.
Before the final results are announced on 23 May, pollsters –Chanakya-News24, Axis My India-India Today, Nielsen-ABP, Times-VMR , CVoter – released their predictions.
What are the big predictions? Will Narendra Modi return as prime minister for a second term? How well has the SP-BSP fared in changing the poll arithmetic? Here are all the numbers.
(Follow Exit Polls from Chanakya, Axis My India, Times Now-VMR and Nielsen here.)
- BJP-led NDA has a clear majority according to most pollsters
- The BJP is predicted to have made inroads in West Bengal and Odisha
- The party or coalition that bags more than 271 seats will form the 17th Lok Sabha
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Exit Poll 2019: Exit Poll Projections by Pollsters in 2009
In 2009, exit poll projections were done by pollsters such as CVoter and CSDS. The CNN-IBN-CSDS exit poll placed NDA at 165, which came closest to the actual number of seats won by the alliance, which was 159. However, the results projected the Congress-led UPA’s seats incorrectly.
Exit Poll Projections by Pollsters in 2014
In 2014, all exit polls showed an NDA victory but barring Today’s Chanakya, none of them could correctly predict that the BJP, led by Narendra Modi, would storm to power with an absolute majority of its own.
CVoter Exit Poll Predicts 287 Seats for NDA, 128 for UPA
The CVoter exit poll has predicted the NDA will secure 287 seats, while the Congress-led UPA is projected to get 128 seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.
CNN Exit Polls: BJP to Secure 38-42 Seats in First Phase
According to News18, the BJP+ alliance will get 38-42 seats in the first phase of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, where 91 constituencies that went to polls on 11 April. Other parties, like the TDP, TRS, SP, and BSP are expected to get 44-46 seats. The pollster also predicts 4 to 6 seats for the Congress party.
Chanakya Exit Poll 2019: BJP to Sweep Haryana, Gujarat, Delhi
The Chanakya-News24 exit poll has predicted that BJP will sweep the states of Gujarat, Haryana and Delhi, winning all 26 seats in Gujarat, 10 in Haryana, and all 7 seats in Delhi. In Chattisgarh, it seems to be ahead of the Congress, winning 9 seats.
Times Now-VMR Predicts 306 Seats to NDA, 132 to UPA
Times Now exit poll has projected 306 seats for NDA, and 132 seats for UPA. The others are projected to get 104 seats.
Appeal Opposition to Stay United, Tweets Mamata
In a tweet, Mamata Banerjee said: “I don’t trust Exit Poll gossip. The game plan is to manipulate or replace thousands of EVMs through this gossip. I appeal to all Opposition parties to be united, strong and bold. We will fight this battle together.”
Losses for BJP in UP According to ABP News-Nielsen, India Today Gives NDA Majority
Of the 455 seats predicted so far, BJP-led NDA is expected to win 219, while the Congress is expected to win 94 seats. Other parties are expected to win 104 seats.
In Uttar Pradesh, a state that the BJP has swept in the 2014 elections by winning 71 of the 80 seats, ABP News-Nielsen Exit Poll predicts that it will get only 22 seats.
On the contrary, the India Today Exit Poll 2019 has given the NDA clear majority, with 62 to 68 seats. UPA 1-2 seats and the Mahagathbandhan 10-16 seats.
Sizable Gains for BJP in Maharashtra, Predictions Show
According to the News18-IPSOS and the India Today-My Axis exit polls, the BJP is expected to gain in Maharashtra. News18 projects it winning between 42-45 seats, while the India Today exit poll puts it at 38-42 seats.
TMC, BJP Neck-and-Neck in West Bengal
The India Today-Axis My India exit poll has predicted the BJP will make massive inroads in West Bengal, where it is locked in a contest with the Trinamool Congress. The projected seat share of BJP is 19-23, while the TMC might get 19-22 seats.
The Congress is predicted to get 0-1, while the Left would be reduced to 0.
According to Times-Now VMR survey, the TMC is expected to be the leading party with 29 seats but BJP may reach double figures. Similarly, ABP News-Nielsen predicts 16 seats for the BJP, and 24 for TMC.
Strong Showing for TRS in Telangana, TDP to Dominate Andhra
The Chanakya-News24 exit poll has predicted a strong showing for the TRS in Telangana, with the party securing 14 of the 17 seats.
The CNN News18-IPSOS exit poll is also predicting that the K Chandrashekar Rao-led party is expected to win 12-14 out of the 17 seats in the state.
According to the Chanakya exit poll, in Andhra Pradesh, the Chandrababu-led TDP, is set to dominate, with the pollster projecting 17 of the 25 seats being won by the party. YSR Congress will grab the remaining eight seats in the state.
ABP Predicts 15 Seats for BJP in K'taka, Aaj-Tak Shows 21-25
The ABP exit poll predicts that the BJP will win 15 seats in Karnataka, while the UPA will win 13 seats in the state.
However, according to the Aaj-Tak-Axis My India exit poll projection shows that the BJP could win between 21-25 seats, while the Congress-JD(S) alliance could get three to six seats.
Tamil Nadu to Tilt Towards Congress-DMK Alliance, Chanakya and Aaj Tak Predict
The Aaj Tak-Axis My India exit polls is predicting that the Congress-DMK alliance could win 34-38 seats in Tamil Nadu, while the AIADMK looks set to get between 0-4 seats.
According to the News24-Chanakya exit poll as well, Tamil Nadu will tilt in favour of the Congress-DMK alliance, electing it in 31 of 38 seats. The BJP-AIADMK alliance is projected to win six seats, with others getting one.
BJP+ to Dominate Bihar, Pollsters Predict
The BJP-JD(U) alliance is expected to perform well in Bihar, securing a total of 32 seats against Congress’ eight, as per the Chanakya-News24 exit poll.
In Bihar, CVoter has predicted that the BJP+ will be winning 33 seats, while the Congress will win 7 seats.
Omar Abdullah Reacts to Exit Polls
Jammu and Kashmir National Conference President Omar Abdullah tweeted: “Every single exit poll can’t be wrong! Time to switch off the TV, log out of social media & wait to see if the world is still spinning on its axis on the 23rd.”
Contradictory Predictions for Odisha in Exit Polls
According to the CNN News18 exit poll, the BJD is projected to get 12-14 seats, while the BJP could win between 6-8 seats in the state.
The India Today-Aaj Tak My Axis exit poll is predicting that in Odisha, the BJP is placed to win 15-19 seats, while the BJD could pick up two to six seats. According to the pollster, the Congress could get a maximum of one seat.