Despite being India’s strategic frontier, Afghanistan does not make news like Kashmir, though the fact is that its internal security is in shambles.
Kabul described 2015 as the year of setbacks; 2016 as the worst year for casualties and attrition, and 2017, many fear, could lead to a strategic collapse. On average, 30 Afghan soldiers are killed fighting Taliban and ISIS every day. In Kashmir, the security forces lost 88 combatants in all of 2016.
In the last two months, Kabul suffered the most deadly string of suicide attacks, prompting civilians to come out on the streets, demanding security which the tottering National United Government of President Ashraf Ghani and CEO Abdullah Abdullah have failed to provide. The cancer of corruption has enfeebled governance.
Also Read: Find Larger Defence Role For India in Afghanistan, Pentagon Asked
US to Spill the Beans
Security has nosedived for three reasons: The drawdown of US troops was too fast and down to too little, from 1,40,000 to 9800; uncertainty in US Afghanistan policy caused by the transition from Obama to Trump; egged by Pakistan, Taliban has altered the military balance in its favour.
The Trump policy on Afghanistan was expected in April but was put on hold as Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson wanted to re-hyphenate Afghanistan with Pakistan (Af-Pak).
The NUG has evolved a four-year roadmap for 2017-20 for enhancing Afghanistan National Security Force (ANSF)’s fighting capabilities as agreed at this May’s Warsaw NATO summit. It will include the expected modest increase of 3,000 US and 10,000 NATO soldiers, with an elaborate US air support plan for ANSF, and special forces which will include F-16 aircraft, B52 bombers, Black Hawk helicopters and refuelling tankers. The US and the West will bear the cost of Afghanistan’s security and economy.
Also Read: Taliban Likely to Make Gains in Afghanistan in 2018: US Intel
Pakistan as a Frenemy
The biggest impediment to the US-Afghanistan duo trying to take over Taliban and the peace process is frenemy Pakistan, whose behaviour hasn’t changed despite money, love and even punitive threats. Afghanistan’s National Security Advisor Hanif Atmar has warned of surgical strikes against Taliban sanctuaries in Pakistan.
US Commanders are expecting the new Mattis policy will allow deeper coercive drone strikes on Taliban, Haqqani, ISIS and even ISI commanders but fear Pakistani reprisals including cutting off US ground lines of communication as they did after Osama bin Laden was taken out of Abbottabad.
Clearly, a change in Islamabad’s behaviour to bring the Taliban to the table as part of the peace process is key to peace and stability in Afghanistan, as a military solution is unfeasible.
For the US, the new spoilers are Russia and China, with both being on good terms with Pakistan. Russia wants to do to the US what the latter did to the USSR in the late 1980s; use Afghan Mujahideen to oust them from Afghanistan.
China is generally playing a negative role, taking the cue from Pakistan.
Also Read: US General in Afghanistan Says Russia Supplying Weapons to Taliban
Will Indian Troops be Deployed in Afghanistan?
New Delhi remains Kabul’s historic and steadfast ally. The Pentagon’s latest report on Afghanistan states that India is the most reliable friend of the Kabul regime. This has been confirmed by several media polls.
India’s impressive $3 billion development assistance and capacity building programmes include an elaborate military training and equipment component under the India-Afghanistan Strategic Partnership 2011 – Kabul’s first with any country.
Like Indian troops were considered for service in Iraq at US’ request in 2003, their deployment in Afghanistan has been periodically speculated, including a military field hospital and a training team.
A US commander in Afghanistan told me recently that Indian soldiers in Afghanistan would be like a red rag to the Pakistani bull, which fears encirclement by India. He added: “After all, Pakistan did help us to defeat USSR”.
Any deployment of Indian troops will be on specific request either from Kabul or Washington, and probably both.
Relief for Afghanistan is only possible if Pakistan relents on its support to the Taliban or is coerced by the US to cooperate in the peace process. This seems unlikely unless the Trump administration is willing and able to change Pakistan’s behaviour. Also unlikely. India is in it for the long haul without boots on the ground for the time being.
( The author is the India convenor of a regional policy group on Afghanistan. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)
(We all love to express ourselves, but how often do we do it in our mother tongue? Here's your chance! This Independence Day, khul ke bol with BOL – Love your Bhasha. Sing, write, perform, spew poetry – whatever you like – in your mother tongue. Send us your BOL atbol@thequint.com or WhatsApp it to 9910181818.)
(At The Quint, we are answerable only to our audience. Play an active role in shaping our journalism by becoming a member. Because the truth is worth it.)