Congress general secretary Priyanka Gandhi was detained by the Uttar Pradesh police en route Ubha village in Sonbhadra where ten people, adivasis all, were recently gunned down in an old land dispute. Priyanka refused to budge before meeting the victim’s families. She has now met the victims’ families and reported to have said that her objective has been met.
Whether this event goes down as a Belchi-like moment, which enthusiastic Congressmen are already predicting, or proves another of those on-ground overtures the Congress fails to sustain (remember Bhatta-Parsaul?) will be known only in time. For the moment, what Priyanka’s stand has done is indicate that there may be fight left in the Congress.
To appreciate the potential import of this signal, we need to reflect on the opposition-voter relationship and how it stands presently in the country.
Indian Voters’ Search for Opposition
The political opposition’s search for a voter is part of the democratic routine. And it is a healthy thing, speaking as it does even to the establishment-leaning voter of several possibilities. Of amplification of demands for justice and accountability, of re-sets of governance priorities and indeed change in government. But for these possibilities, the threat of embarrassment and political wilderness they represent, uncontested power would do what uncontested power does: leave nations ravaged and people impoverished in every conceivable sense.
Nothing healthy about a voter in search of an opposition though. That is tragic, reflecting an opposition wanting in terms of both imagination and spirit - and leaves the voter vulnerable to the might and whims of the state.
This is not to discount the agency or capabilities of ordinary citizens, their collectives, and other civil society groups in interrogating the powers that be and in realizing meaningful change - but to highlight the crucial role of the political opposition in sustaining the democratic project.
At the moment, the Indian voter is struggling to spot the opposition. This was not the situation a couple of months ago. Till the counting of votes cast in seventeenth parliamentary elections began on the morning of May 23, she could still sense an opposition presence. (One could argue whether the opposition enjoyed credibility, but its presence was undeniable, the feeling that it would be unwise to write it off difficult to shake off.)
Pre-2019 Promise of the Opposition
Issues of farm sector distress, failure at job creation, economic mismanagement, crony capitalism, institutional subversion, and national security had been placed on the voter’s radar during the campaign. Parties, sometimes unlikely ones, had joined hands; and, several opposition leaders were signaling expectations of a close contest. Even if the entire effort looked a little late and a little undercooked, it did not speak of a surrender before the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) juggernaut. In fact, the common view among election pundits was that the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) would make it, but only barely.
The election verdict, of course, belied these readings, with the NDA receiving a mandate even more impressive than in 2014. The opposition has crumbled since.
Disappointment, even disorientation, was expected in the opposition ranks given the magnitude of the defeat it was handed.
What has been concerning though is the lack of any signal regarding its intent (note that I am not talking of a revival plan here, just signaling of intent) to respond to its assigned role and win back voters’ trust.
Aren’t two months too short a signaling time for a decimated force? Maybe, in normal circumstances. Not when faced with an unrelenting rival.
Opposition’s State Post Modi 2.0
In the last two months, we have seen an opposition too deflated to even run with the many valid issues it had raised in the campaign trail, its noises confined to ill-framed TV studio debates and pressers, and social media posts that smack of token protest in the absence of mobilizations on ground. Leaders who crisscrossed the country in coalition stitching mode have retracted into shells. Others are preoccupied with saving turf in upcoming assembly elections, and yet others are helplessly watching their party members’ migration to the BJP. Meanwhile, the Congress, the country’s second largest party, has been struggling to find a new leader and grappling with dissent in the few states it holds.
Such has been the state of drift that it appears the issues on ground evaporated once the election results came. Only they did not - and have been looking for an opposition to foreground and pursue them, as much as they are looking to the government for resolution. Yes, the opposition’s pitch centered on these issue was rejected, but it was not because the electorate considered the issues raised irrelevant. It was because the opposition did not come across as equipped to address them.
What Should the Voters Do?
What choices does the citizen have if the drift were to last? Expecting her to wage a lonely battle for her rights and entitlements, despite shining examples of those who persisted and won, is unrealistic. The system has a way of sapping out the most determined, and the ripples from even a successful pursuit may not travel far in a nation of sub-continental size.
Citizens’ collectives and civil society groups are relatively better placed and must gird themselves for tougher battles if the political opposition does not pick itself up.
That said, the remit of their mobilization and exertions is likely to remain local, sub-regional at best, and approach (electorally) apolitical.
This underscores the criticality of political mobilization in determining the balance of power in the macro spaces where law and policies are shaped and resources are prioritized. Plainly put, the ‘solution’ to the shriveled opposition space has to be found in the political arena itself. And, in the near to mid-term at least, it has to be found by the more established parties. The entry barriers for new parties have risen sharply over time. The only ‘new’ party to have made any sort of impact in the last two decades is the Aam Aadmi Party. Contrast this with the eighties and nineties, when a number of political outfits emerged and went on to thrive.
Constant Engagement with the Voter is the Key
Amidst all this, the silver lining for the opposition, ironically, comes from the very aspect of reality that is most disconcerting: the voter’s search for an opposition. Were it to look beyond the calculus of votes gathered and shed and seats lost and won, the opposition will find numerous opportunities to serve, to engage with citizens on resonant issues of livelihood, infrastructure, safety, and voice.
Such engagement may not fetch immediate electoral returns in a polarized climate where other issues have come to occupy popular mindspace, but will nevertheless assure citizens of the political option and support they have in their struggles. That will be the first step in cementing position as an alternative. It remains to be seen whether the opposition can actually shake off its inertia and root itself on the ground without the expectation of immediate reward. Maybe, just maybe, Priyanka has triggered that.
(Manish Dubey is a policy analyst and crime fiction writer and can be contacted at @ManishDubey1972. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)
(At The Quint, we are answerable only to our audience. Play an active role in shaping our journalism by becoming a member. Because the truth is worth it.)