During his second Eid-ul-Fitr sermon delivered at the Khomeini Mausoleum on 26 July, Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei dwelt on the “many wounds inflicted on the body of the Islamic world”.
In this context, he singled out the ‘wounds’ of the Yemeni, Syrian and Bahraini citizens. Surprisingly, he mentioned the “people of Kashmir” along with the other three. Khamenei called on the Ummah to “express its hatred of the oppressors and cruel individuals who attacked those people in the holy month of Ramadan”.
Reading between the lines
- The
‘tyrants’ in Ayatollah Khamenei’s comments refer to those hostile to Iran –
Saudis, Egyptians and Emiratis
- The
countries mentioned in Khamenei’s sermon include Yemen, Syria and Bahrain, which
are witnessing Shia-Sunni strife
- Iran
feels isolated after the Riyadh Summit that saw Saudi Arabia, Egypt, UAE and Bahrain
snapping ties with Qatar
- Kashmir
used in a provocative manner to warn India against cosying up to US or
hostile neighbour in the Middle East.
- Slow pace of Chabahar project could not be the
trigger as Iranians are known for their brinkmanship
Iran’s ‘Tough’ Message
The Iranian leaders choose their words deliberately but their messaging is always elliptical. Its meaning has to be prised out, otherwise it can cause misunderstandings and diplomatic confusion.
Often, the Iranian system speaks in multiple voices to calculatedly result in doubts on the other side. So what has Khamenei signalled to India through the Kashmir reference this time?
Clearly the “oppressors and cruel individuals” are the Saudis, Egyptians and the Emiratis as well as their allies in the Arab and Islamic world and beyond. The current American administration with its strong hostility to Iran is also to be included among hostile countries.
Reason Behind Invoking Kashmir
Trump’s participation and his direct and forceful targeting of Iran at the Riyadh Summit held last month, which was essentially a gathering of the leaders of Sunni countries, has exacerbated tensions in the region.
Following the summit Saudi Arabia, Egypt, UAE and Bahrain have cut off ties with Qatar which has good relation with Iran. They have demanded that Qatar should, among other steps, reconsider its camaraderie with Iran.
The agitation in Kashmir promoted and supported by Pakistan is against the Indian Union. The Kashmir-oriented terrorist groups are Islamist and hard-line Sunni but agitators are still some distance away from Islamic sectarianism.
Thus, it has no intrinsic connection with the sectarian conflicts in Yemen, Syria and Bahrain. There is no doubt that Khamenei is aware of this fundamental distinction. So why has he placed Kashmir along with the other three?
By doing so, Khamenei has conveyed to India that as it enhances its relations with the Sunni Arab peninsula countries such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and builds strong ties with the Trump administration, it should take care that the Shias generally – and specifically the most important Shia country, Iran – are not alienated.
To ensure that Iranian feelings are sufficiently understood by the Indian leadership, he has chosen to refer to Kashmir in such a stark, even provocative, manner.
Getting Along With Arab Peninsular Countries
Modi has sought to deepen ties with all the principal countries of West Asia. He has visited Saudi Arabia and the UAE as well as Iran. He has correctly sought to keep India away from the disputes of the region, focussing instead on strengthening bilateral relationships in all areas, including security.
It is a fact that India’s interests lie collectively in the Arab states, especially those of the Arab peninsula – yet India has refrained from causing any apprehension on either side of the sectarian divide. Thus, Khamenei’s warning was entirely uncalled for.
During his visit to Iran in May 2016, Modi met Khamenei, who expressed a desire for an expansion in Indo-Iran relations and specifically drew attention to the possibilities in energy cooperation and connectivity through the development of the Chabahar port. The two countries had decided to expedite the latter. There have been delays in implementation of the project including the port as well as in the hydrocarbon sector.
The non-settlement of gas price has delayed the Farzad B gas project and at the expense of India’s happiness, Iran is negotiating with other countries. However, in these matters, it is seldom easy to deal with the Iranian system which is known for brinkmanship.
Ignoring Iran’s Provocation
The Indian approach is to ensure that differences in one area should not impact bilateral ties with others. The Iranians, sometimes, try to build pressure by focussing temporarily on other areas.
Khamenei’s Kashmir reference may have been slightly motivated to pressure India on current projects, and if this is so, it should not impact negotiations with them.
The fact is that for a long time, Iran has sought that India should ignore sanctions against it while building ties. Khamenei too had indirectly referred to this view in his meeting with Modi meeting when he underlined that in enhancing ties with India it is “not influenced by any other policy”.
The Kashmir reference has to be principally viewed in this cautionary light. India does not have to be fazed by it. It will not have a major impact on the Kashmir agitation because of sectarian reasons and such Iranian provocations are ignored globally as well.
(The writer is a former Secretary [West], Ministry of External Affairs. He can be reached at @VivekKatju. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)
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