Are India and Pakistan headed for nuclear apocalypse? Aside from the excitement of the 2019 elections, ‘nuclear damnation’ appears to be the newest buzzword among the urban ‘intelligentsia’.
It is only natural to be a bit alarmed by the tensions between the nations in light of the airstrikes and counter airstrikes that followed the 14 February Pulwama attack. However, there are some rather emphatic echoes that this will lead to nuclear detonation. These echoes believe that an escalation towards nuclear war is ominously looming in the horizon. A lot of this narrative has petered down from a body of literature by those who believe that nuclear proliferation by developing countries, especially South Asia, is far more dangerous than nuclear proliferation per se.
Debunking the Notion That Only Post-Colonial Govts Are Irrational
It is believed that post-colonial governments are erratic and irrational, and lack the nuance of ‘sensible’ governments. Furthermore, even if the country is not under the control of a mad general, even pragmatic rulers are considered dangerous. This is because of the belief that there is nothing more dangerous that the allure of the conviction that ‘something must be done’.
It is feared that these countries will become trigger happy with their own heightened sense of supremacy and security. Some such nuclear pessimists would be Stephen P. Cohen (2001) who wrote the book India: Emerging Power and Michael Krepon.
Krepon, had, with regard to the Pulwama attack and the ensuing tension(s), on 28.2.2019, jumped to a mushroom cloud scenario between India and Pakistan, and recommended the intervention of the United States. While Krepon acknowledged that both countries had exercised restraint, he also recommended the intervention of US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo. The subtext of the piece exudes a tone of dissuasion, mixed with a tinge of cultural arrogance about the handling of India-Pakistan relations.
India’s Nuclear Capability Has Lent Some Stability to South Asia
The perspective appears to be that post-colonial countries require constant monitoring owing to their relatively new status as independent nations. These views appear to be, aside from condescending, quite a blanket, paranoid discrimination against post-colonial countries. At the outset, it may be observed that Pakistan’s nuclear testing may have encouraged its provocation of India, therein creating instability in the region. ‘Nuclear comfort’ was apparently what emboldened Pakistan to provoke the Kargil War, the attack on Parliament in 2001-02 and the attack on camp Kaluchak in 2002.
Apropos of this, it may be observed that India’s nuclear capability has in fact, lent some stability to South Asia. It is India’s nuclear capability that made sure that the above-mentioned crises remained confined to the area and issue of contention. This is because India is a democratic, non-expansionist country, and by having nuclear capability, it acts as a bulwark against Pakistan’s aggression and expansionist design(s).
What may be inferred from this analogy is that the dangers of nuclear proliferation may be elevated or subdued on the basis of the character of the procuring nation (democratic versus non democratic; religious versus secular and so on). Thus, the nature of the nation may be a relevant factor, for inferring the chances of nuclear doom, rather than the status of being an ex-colony in South Asia.
Why US Can’t Take the Moral High Ground
The United States is consistently called in to soothe the warring neighbours, as western authorities weigh in on the mounting Indo-Pak tensions. There is no doubt that these actors play an important role as mediator(s).
However, lest we forget, when portraying India and Pakistan as infantile countries in need of ‘baby-sitting’, that it was a western country, i.e., the US, that has actually executed nuclear detonation.
The irony really is quite ringing at this point, that despite such actions by the West, it is predominantly the post-colonial countries of South Asia that are considered unpredictable. Since its independence, India has not exhibited such a degree of irrationality such that nuclear doom would be inevitable.
Thus, while it is understandable to feel wary in this political climate, to assume that nuclear detonation will predominantly occur in developing post-colonial South Asia may be a bit discriminatory. The only ‘mushrooms’ these countries probably desire are the ones in their food.
(Shriya Misra is a Delhi-based lawyer with an interdisciplinary interest in politics, international relations and societal development. She tweets at @shriyamisra. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)
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