It is risky to see political developments in black and white, ignoring the greys. What is being overlooked in the euphoria – or call it a sense of relief – at the merger of the two factions of the AIADMK is the extreme unease among many party old-timers. They are dismayed at the manner in which the running of the AIADMK has almost been outsourced to the BJP. Some others put it more harshly, terming it a hostile takeover.
“Delhi wants the body of the AIADMK without its head,'' is how an AIADMK MP who belongs to the Edappadi Palaniswami camp described the situation in the party to a fellow journalist in Delhi.
Leaders in Chennai point out how the Modi-fication of the AIADMK helps only the BJP and the rump group led by O Panneerselvam.
Too caught up to read? Listen to the story:
Would Amma have approved of this prostration before the Delhi Sultanate?AIADMK leader of the Dhinakaran camp
The Sly Sasikala Camp
But the AIADMK has only itself to blame. With several of its leaders like Health Minister C Vijayabasker under a cloud, the fear of Income Tax, CBI and ED sleuths have blunted their ability to resist pressure. With little or no elbow room, they are forced to fall in line.
It was made clear early this year that the AIADMK has to be purged of the Mannargudi family. The expectation in February was that when OPS revolted, the entire party would flock around him. But he flattered to deceive.
The Sasikala camp proved smarter and ensured the majority of the MLAs stayed by its side, by hook or by crook. Though EPS became CM with Sasikala's blessings, he soon realised that he would need the hand of Delhi on him, in order to survive. The I-T raids during the RK Nagar by-election campaign period set the cat among the pigeons.
BJP – The Puppeteer
Left to themselves, the EPS and OPS factions, with the bad blood between them in the last six months, would never want to patch up. There is distrust in the EPS faction for OPS, who it feels walked out of the party the moment Sasikala sought to replace him as CM.
The OPS faction feels EPS has been too clever, first becoming the CM with the support of the Sasikala group and then dumped them to endear himself to the BJP. It feels EPS has been trying to convince Delhi to do business with him instead of OPS, as he too has washed himself clean of the Sasikala taint by distancing himself from her.
That despite these misgivings, EPS and OPS are forced to work towards a merger is only because the BJP wants it that way. The official reason is that the Centre wants a stable government in Tamil Nadu to fulfil the mandate won by Jayalalithaa last May. The unofficial reason is that it gives the BJP a toehold in a state where it got less than 3 per cent of the vote in the assembly elections.
EPS + OPS = Perfect Disaster
What has been proposed is that EPS stays as CM while OPS could become the deputy CM. But OPS will be the top boss in the party, with EPS his number 2. It is this dual-headed power structure that has been prescribed for a party, with power vested in only one person – first MGR, then Jayalalithaa. This twin sharing formula could be a perfect recipe for disaster.
OPS for one, is not interested in being deputy after having been a chief minister thrice. Doing so, he also reckons, would undermine the goodwill he has earned in the last six months and would show him as just another power-hungry politician.
The EPS camp too is not too excited about doing business with OPS. It points to the 123 MLAs in its camp compared to just 10 in the Pannerselvam faction. It resents the two groups being put on the same pedestal by Delhi.
Also, TTV Dhinakaran
Then there is the TTV Dhinakaran factor. While his support base which has roughly a dozen MLAs now, could shrink further, it would be foolhardy to write him off the unpredictable world of Tamil Nadu politics.
Many in the present AIADMK have done business with him and Sasikala and are not comfortable with the manner in which he is being thrown out. They point to the ridiculousness of EPS declaring Dhinakaran's position as deputy general secretary null and void, six months after he was appointed to that post. What's more, EPS even campaigned for Dhinakaran in the RK Nagar bypoll which was rescinded subsequently.
A deadline of Independence Day is being mentioned for the merger to be announced and OPS and EPS may both meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Delhi on Friday. But the AIADMK story is unlikely to be over, till it is inked on paper. Or perhaps even that may be just a short break before the sequel.
(The writer is a senior journalist. He can be reached at @Iamtssudhir. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own.The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)
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