Back in November 2020, as the analysis of the Bihar assembly elections rolled in, Nitish Kumar was pleasantly surprised to know the extent to which the female vote had swung in his favour. This, however, was not a feat achieved overnight; most commentators would argue that women voters have traditionally formed part of Nitish Kumar’s silent majority, and that his focus has rarely wavered from them.
He had run multiple schemes that focussed on women empowerment, from the provision of bicycles to campaigns against dowry deaths. While the Opposition tried to highlight that atrocities against women in Bihar have not reduced, pre-poll surveys had estimated that over 40 percent of Bihar’s women voters were keen to retain the Nitish Kumar government.
Much like the NDA in Bihar, the Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the BJP will be looking to woo the women vote-base through similar campaign-styling, messaging and ground tactics.
Similar to the liquor ban and bicycle distribution schemes released by the Nitish Kumar government — directly aimed at appeasing the women vote-base in Bihar — the TMC has released a multitude of women-centred schemes aimed at cementing their image as a ‘pro-women’ party.
However, things are rarely as they appear on paper.
While a multitude of on-ground TMC schemes have received significant media coverage, there are also unsaid statistics that have gotten lost in election jargon and posturing. If we are to discern the female voter mindset in Bengal, let us look at what has gone well for the TMC and where they have potentially opened themselves up for attack from the opposition.
TMC’s Biggest Weapon
The TMC is known for launching various schemes directed at women’s welfare. These schemes have been a huge factor in CM Mamata Banerjee’s popularity among women voters.
These are the TMC’s most publicised women-centric schemes and with good reason, if one checks out the ‘achievements’ of the West Bengal government. One in particular, Kanyashree, received global recognition when it won the United Nations Public Service Award in 2017, catapulting the TMC to the national stage.
Apart from the schemes, the TMC is expected to heavily run on CM Mamata Banerjee’s image of a strong woman leader. Narratives surrounding her being the “daughter of Bengal” will pick up significantly in the next few weeks. (Bangla Nijer Meyeke Chaye – Bengal wants its own daughter).
This is meant to hammer home the point of the BJP being a party of ‘outsiders’, and to provide them with an opportunity to highlight the plight of women in BJP-ruled states such as UP, as well as make a regional connection with Bengali pride.
The TMC could also highlight the increase of reservation for women in panchayats from 33 to 50 percent; however, it is likely that Prashant Kishor would advise Mamata Banerjee to steer clear of the 2018 panchayat elections.
Trinamool Report Card
There has been a lot of election talk on Kolkata being considered as being one of the ‘safest cities’ to live in, in India. This statement is largely accurate. Since 2016, Kolkata has been vying for this top spot, and is often listed as one of the 3 safest cities for women in India. However, Kolkata’s assessment of the living conditions for women in Bengal is akin to Prime Minister Modi’s construction of walls to blockade slums in Ahmedabad during Donald Trump’s visit in Feb 2020 — it is not quite the full picture.
So, let us walk through some statistics of the Mamata Banerjee government, since it returned to power in 2016.
According to NCRB data of 2016, West Bengal
- ranked first in domestic violence cases
- reported the highest number of human trafficking cases (a whopping 44 percent of the country’s total cases)
- reported the highest number of acid-attacks per capita (overall 2nd)
- has one of the highest number of dowry deaths
As you can see, ‘achievements’ can be deceptive. Mamata Banerjee started her second term (in 2016) with an uphill battle, to reduce crimes against women and make women’s safety a key priority. Despite her best intentions, conditions for women did not largely improve in 2017 — NCRB data ranks West Bengal as the third-highest state in terms of number of crimes against women (Maharashtra was in second place, with a marginal increment of 100 cases over West Bengal).
The total number of cases in 2017, however, had dropped from 2016.
This trend continued in 2018, with Bengal retaining its position of being the third-highest state with crimes against women, but again, the numbers had slightly dropped from the previous year.
The West Bengal government had not shared crime data with the NCRB for 2019, probably due to the fact that elections were on the horizon and much discussion would erupt from the NCRB data. The 2019 NCRB report, in fact, copies the 2018 data for West Bengal due to lack of information. Despite this, West Bengal ranked as follows:
- second highest on attempt-to-rape cases
- highest in acid attack cases
- third highest number of child marriage cases
It is quite likely that the BJP and Left-INC alliance will target the fact that she being a female chief minister is unable to resolve the safety concerns of women in Bengal.
Apart from the issue of women’s safety, disparities relating to female land ownership in Bengal (especially in the rural region) may cause problems for the TMC. In Bengal, out of the female land owners, close to 94 percent hold marginal land while only 4 percent hold small-size farms. In a predominantly agrarian state such as West Bengal, issues like these may bubble up to the fore if given the right nudge by opposition parties.
Finally, it is important to mention that a large part of female state scheme beneficiaries reside in the southern parts of Bengal.
This region has existing human trafficking concerns but with discrepancies arising from fund-distribution by TMC members in the aftermath of Cyclone Amphan, it is a region that the Opposition will try to make headway in, in the coming elections.
TMC Announces 50 Female Candidates
With the TMC announcing its candidates for all 294 seats in the past few days, a lot is being said of the 50 female candidates selected by the TMC. It is largely being seen as a positive move and in the right direction towards female empowerment. It could certainly be perceived as the right signalling towards women voters in Bengal. Interestingly, 9 have been selected over incumbent TMC MLAs from those seats ( that is, Tapan, Bongaon Dakshin, Rajarhat Gopalpur, Sonarpur Dakshin, Howrah Dakshin, Sankrail, Arambagh, Bankura and Dubrajpur).
Is Candidate Selection ‘Gender Agnostic’?
Personally, I find this to be nothing more than posturing. As people who closely watch politics will tell you, in most cases, candidate selection is gender agnostic. Consider this: will the TMC risk losing a seat to simply posture a woman candidate (no matter how qualified and suitable); or will the TMC seek to retain the seat with its existing male candidates? If the answer is obvious, then the solution should be too.
Political parties should not ignore these unsaid truths, which reflect the suppression of women, and simultaneously expect women to be considered ‘strong candidates’ come election time.
Every party does it because it is the easy thing to do, akin to putting a colourful band-aid on a bullet wound.
The TMC knows this, which is why its band-aids take the form of popular female celebrities of West Bengal. Seeking to solve the many problems faced by women by nominating election candidates, is naïve at best.
To that effect, the Left, INC and the BJP are all expected to attack the TMC on its failures. These parties will, without a doubt, put forward strong female candidates as well. The TMC may be pushing ahead with their pro-women agenda armed with a multitude of welfare schemes, but whether that is enough to create the election ‘mahal’ to woo women voters, remains to be seen.
(The author is a lawyer based in New Delhi and a former political consultant with a keen interest in West Bengal politics. He tweets @ishanroyc. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same)
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