UP Next: Why BJP Is a Non-Starter and Congress Is the Dark Horse

The UP election battleground is primed with new characters and tactics, and a Congress win isn’t so far-fetched.

Amongst all the assembly elections slated for 2017, the battle in Uttar Pradesh is poised to have the most exciting finish.

Emboldened by its landslide victory in Assam, the BJP leadership started its UP campaign with a gala party convention in Allahabad on 12 June. The ruling Samajwadi Party’s wariness was palpable as the BJP’s aggressive poll strategy threatened its bastion. PM Modi’s speech at a public meeting where he led the corruption charge
against the Akhilesh Yadav government further unnerved the incumbent party.

However, the BJP’s zeal in trying to make forays into the UP citadel was short-lived. Party leader from eastern UP Daya Shankar Singh’s unsavoury remarks against BSP chief Mayawati upset all pre-election calculations.

The vituperative exchange of words between the BJP and BSP clearly marginalised the BJP, as the underprivileged lot of UP got distinctly polarised towards Mayawati. Amid such uncertainties, BSP too had a series of setbacks as one of the party’s tall leaders, Swami Prasad Maurya, deserted Mayawati and joined the Mulayam camp.

Further, many in the BSP accused Mayawati for extorting huge sums in exchange for
distributing party tickets. Hitherto, BSP had some chances of staging a comeback – the most significant reason being its solid and committed dalit vote bank.

In political statecraft, as propounded by the likes of Socrates and Chanakya, nothing is predictable and in India even the best psephologists have glaringly failed in their prophecies.

Against this backdrop, the Congress party, bereft of power in UP for the last 27 years, is making an entry into the fray with a well-crafted poll strategy and a doable blueprint with a fresh party structure. You don’t need to be a political pundit to guess that poll strategist Prashant Kishore is the man behind this plan. A lot of careful planning and application has clearly been involved – intricacies which are beyond the comprehension of 10 Janpath.

Raj Babbar, the new UP president for the Congress, is non-controversial with a clean image and liked by the Muslim community. A Rajya Sabha MP, his charisma will be crucial in the run-up to the elections. Also, his wife Nadira is from a renowned Shia family. The Shia population in UP is sizeable. Sheila Dikshit, with her solid record of governance, is a Brahmin face (though by marriage) and is an acceptable face in UP as the Chief Ministerial candidate.

Her father-in-law Uma Shankar Dikshit had a tall political stature in UP. Further, UP has not had a Brahmin CM since ND Tiwari. Brahmins in UP, therefore, will rally behind Sheila Dikshit to marginalise dalits and the Yadavs. Imran Masood is yet another prominent figure who has been made the Vice President of the newly structured UP Congress.

He is immensely liked by young Muslims for his rhetoric and aggressive politics. Hailing from Saharanpur in western UP where BJP is trying to build up its cadres, Imran will be a fierce speaker during the campaigning and will be crucial in effectively countering the
anti-Muslim propaganda aired by the likes of Mahant Yoginath, Uma Bharati and their ilk. His fiery oration is capable of drowning the belligerent outbursts of Azam Khan.

In another astute move, RPN Singh has been made Senior Vice President of the party unit. His forte looks limited only in the eastern UP Gorakhpur-Deoria belt, where he will be crucial in wooing Rajput voters.

Raja Ram Pal also figures in the list of office bearers and his standing amongst the backward classes is beyond reproach. Each UP constituency has 3-7 percent of the backward vote bank and Pal has the capability of upping the ante, adversely affecting the BSP and SP – albeit only to an extent.

Bhagwati Prasad Choudhury of the Congress has been heading the SC/ ST cell in UP for a long time and he is likely to give a close fight to the SP and the BSP who are largely dependent on Dalit votes.

Another Brahmin face intelligently included by Prashant Kishore is Rajesh Mishra, who has enormous clout with the artisans of Varanasi. Mishra was the head of the Panchayat and had the courage to challenge the political might of the Mukhtar Ansari camp. He seems to be an asset for the revived Congress.

The dramatis personae of the UP Congress don’t end here. There is a ‘powerful’ campaign committee led by Amethi veteran Sanjay Singh, assisted ably by Jitin Prasad and former state minister Zafar Ali Naqvi. There is, however, the need to include more youngsters in this set up. Sanjay Singh is a spent force and so are his aides in the committee. Likewise, the omnipotent coordination committee is headed by Rajya Sabha MP Pramod Tiwari and has stalwarts like Mohsina Kidwai, Salman Khurshid, Shri Prakash Jaiswal, Rajiv Shukla, Rita Bahuguna, Salim Sherwani among others.

Some names in the coordination and campaign committees are familiar alright, but it’s doubtful if they can pull crowds or influence voters. It seems the exercise was carried out to accommodate dissenters and keep everyone in good humour.

Real vote-catchers and crowd-pullers would be the likes of Raj Babbar, Sheila Dikshit, Imran Masood and Congress heavyweights who will be brought in for campaigning from outside UP, especially dalit and Muslim faces.

All said and done, Priyanka Gandhi remains the singular figure whose presence in the rallies and canvassing is expected to charm the voters. She is the Congress’ real trump card.

With Gulam Nabi Azad playing the most crucial role in the upcoming elections, the situation doesn’t look that dismal for the Congress. The contest with adversaries like BJP and BSP will be a close one, not one-sided.

SP has lost all credibility due to misrule and the sharply declining law and order situation. In the last few months, incidents like the Bulandshahr gangrape and the Dadri lynching have completely exposed the Akhilesh Yadav government.

BSP is likely to stay afloat in the fray with Congress as its closest contender. BJP will take some time to put its house in order and overcome internal dissensions. BJP must also declare a CM candidate at the earliest to be felt as a force to reckon with. Else, its dream of regaining power in UP will never translate into reality. BJP should not forget that India’s largest state is not like Assam or Chattisgarh. In Uttar Pradesh, voters are elusive and caste and class remain decisive factors.

On Congress’ part, there has to be one chain of command. Sonia Gandhi should delegate to Azad and her role then can be limited to making occasional appearances in political rallies and public meetings. Priyanka needs to be seen, demonstratively, with well-prepared speeches. Rahul can’t avoid making appearances but he should be
cautious about the content and syntax of his speech.

(The writer is a retired IPS of UP cadre and a commentator on UP politics. This is a personal blog and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same)