In the last seventy years after Pakistan’s birth, not a single prime minister – from Liaquat Ali Khan to Nawaz Sharif – has been able to complete his/her full term of five years in office. Prime ministers being ousted, assassinated, dismissed by the court or removed by the military is a customary feature of Pakistani politics.
On 28 July, history repeated itself again. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif resigned from his office after he was disqualified by the Supreme Court on corruption charges. The judges declared that Sharif was not “honest” and that he was, therefore, “disqualified to be a member of the Parliament”.
They also ordered a probe against the Sharif family. This landmark judgment came after a series of investigations in the last few months into the family’s finances, following the Panama Papers leak case. Sharif denied all the charges and said he was removed by the Supreme Court over “baseless allegations”.
Also Read: How Nawaz Sharif Can Strengthen Democracy Beyond Pakistan’s Punjab
Shehbaz Takes a Back Seat, Kulsoom Steps In
Under Sharif, Pakistan experienced economic growth, reduction in poverty and also saw a drop in terrorist attacks. This was his third term in office. He previously served from 1990 to 1993, when he was dismissed by the president on corruption charges, and again from 1997 to 1999 when he was ousted in a military coup.
Nawaz named his younger brother Shehbaz Sharif, who is currently serving as the Punjab Chief Minister, as his successor. For Shehbaz to take charge as Nawaz’s successor, he had to be first elected as a member of Parliament. That meant Shehbaz would have had to resign from his current position and contest election for a seat in the National Assembly from Lahore, which fell vacant after Nawaz resigned. This process would have required 45-50 days. Until then, former petroleum minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi was chosen to serve as the interim prime minister.
Thus, Abbasi, a Nawaz loyalist, became Pakistan’s new prime minister. He had spent two years in jail during the Musharraf era and had refused to turn approver against Nawaz Sharif.
However, things took a drastic turn when instead of Shehbaz, Nawaz’s wife Kulsoom filed papers for contesting the Lahore seat.
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Feud in Sharif Family
This change of plan has created friction within the family. Nawaz first announced Shehbaz as his successor but later led everyone to believe that Shehbaz’s absence from Punjab would be a disaster during this crisis. Shehbaz, on the other hand, wanted his son Hamza to take over Punjab after his election. However, both Shehbaz and his son’s hopes were crushed after Kulsoom’s nomination.
Later, PML-N announced that Shehbaz would become the party president. However the post was given to Sardar Yaqoob Nasar from Balochistan. The friction has increased to such an extent that Hamza,who is considered to be the strategist for all election campaigns, is not looking after Kulsoom’s campaign. In fact, he will be leaving Pakistan days before the election.
In the meantime Kulsoom Nawaz has been diagnosed with Lymphoma, a type of cancer, and is undergoing treatment in London. Her daughter Maryam has started the campaign on her behalf.
But the question is, has Nawaz made the right the choice by nominating his wife? I think yes. Though Kulsoom is contesting the elections for the first time, she knows politics well. She led the protests in 1999 when Pervez Musharraf arrested Nawaz Sharif, until he was freed. After this the family lived in exile for years in Saudi Arabia.
Moreover, this move of Nawaz will keep the power in his hands. As history reveals, women leaders who gain political power through their male relatives are nothing but puppets in their hands. And Shahbaz, who is considered to be a pragmatist, might have turned against Nawaz.
Also Read: A Chapter in Pakistani Politics Closes With Nawaz Sharif’s Exit
Kulsoom Might Emerge as Victor
Kulsoom has a strong chance of winning this election due to the following reasons.
Firstly, Lahore is the stronghold of PML-N as it has won three elections (2002, 2008, 2013) in the last two decades by huge margins. Reports suggest people are very happy with the PML-N’s work, be it building schools, colleges, dispensaries, hospitals, roads, playgrounds, the metro bus, orange line metro trains etc. The Lahorites have access to everything.
In Nawaz’s regime, people got to witness a stable and secure Pakistan which will further strengthen the chances of Kulsoom’s victory.
Secondly, she will have sympathy votes after Nawaz’s disqualification as people have an emotional connect with the former prime minister.
As far as India is concerned, there will not be much change as Pakistan’s policy towards India has always been dictated and implemented by the military.
(The author is an assistant professor at Amity University, Noida and tweets @j_teckchandani. The opinions expressed are the author’s own and The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)
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