“Modi ji ke alaava hai kaun?”
Vadodara may be disappointed, also mildly angsty I suspect, but it is not ready to give up on Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The city gifted a record victory margin of 5,70,128 votes to Modi in 2014.
For the past two decades, the city has been an impenetrable bastion of the BJP. It is poised to stay the same in the upcoming general elections. What may change, however, is Modi’s decision of contesting from Vadodara.
Both Gujarat and New Delhi are abuzz with the speculation that the prime minister is likely to contest from Rajkot this time.
“Modi Takes Care of Us”
Rajiv (name changed to protect identity) is a free-lance cinematographer who believes that Gujarat may not be swept by the lotus-wave in the general elections, but people still trust Modi a lot more than his competitors. “Log sochte hain Modi hi apna dhyaan rakhta hai,” (People here think that only Modi takes care of us Gujaratis), he says casually.
There is, however, a little heartburn as Rajkot, and not Vadodara, is set to get an AIIMS. After a year-long deliberation and much lobbying by the regional leaders, 120 acres of land have been allocated near Rajkot for the proposed medial facility. Is it a ploy to lure voters in a new constituency?
“Modi will win from wherever he chooses to contest,” Rajiv says. The BJP, however, is not in the same enviable position.
Local journalists are looking at a loss of 8-10 seats in the upcoming general elections. “It’s still too early to place our bets, but the BJP doesn’t seem to be winning more than 18 seats this time,” says an Ahmedabad-based journalist. Another chips in with, “Hardik Patel is becoming big. He addressed a rally in Kolkata and so many people were there”. Mamata Banerjee hosted an Opposition meet in Kolkata on 19 January. Gujarati media seems to have selectively highlighted Patel’s role in the same.
Reservation and Unemployment
Reservation politics that catapulted Patel into the public imagination of Gujarat has turned on its head for the BJP, with no foreseeable gains for the latter. “This 10 percent thing (reservation for economically weak upper-castes) has made people very angry. The tribal people are particularly upset,” Rajiv shares.
India needs to create at least 8.1 million jobs per year to tackle its alarming rate of unemployment. Not only are the jobs few and far between, quota politics vitiates the environment even further.
Ramesh (name changed to protect identity), a 25-year-old hospitality professional working in a plush Vadodara hotel, has an interesting take on underemployment. “I’ve cleared the interview for a five-star hotel in Udaipur. I’m very excited to go there. I took up a job in Vadodara only to spend some time with my family.” Ramesh comes from a family of jewelers but does not wish to carry the family business forward.
Apart from his interest in the hospitality industry, what keeps him away from business is fear. “If you have to survive in Gujarat, you have to be a businessman. Nobody takes a salaried person seriously. But I don’t want to do business. This is not a good time for doing business. There is very little money in rotation,” he explains.
Assuming a persona well-beyond his years, Ramesh continues, “If people are not spending freely, it means they are not earning freely. This should give us some idea. People are holding their money. They are also scared of money being looted by the government”.
Clearly, taxation is seen as the government’s loot by some in Gujarat. Have GST reforms not brought any solace to the business community? Ramesh answers with a smirk and a gentle shake of his head.
Urban Gujarat Still Backs Modi
Ramesh was not interested in a chat on politics but beamed when his career plans were being discussed. Any attempt to get him to speak about Modi, the general elections, BJP-Congress, or even Vadodara’s political climate were in vain.
If Modi chooses to contest from Rajkot, will Vadodara feel betrayed? Perhaps not—the city loves him. There is a lot going for Vadodara at the moment. ISRO’s Gaganyaan, for instance, has a city connection.
‘Sure Safety’, a Vadodara-based industrial safety equipment manufacturer will be dressing the Gaganyaan astronauts in spacesuits that have been designed from scratch locally.
The city has fared well in terms of progress in Public Private Partnership projects under the Smart Cities Mission of the Union Ministry for Housing and Urban Affairs.
The urban Gujarati is still not wavering, despite the reports of discontent and disappointments. Rural Gujarat may vote against the BJP, leading to a loss of seats, the cities however, are still rallying behind the man from Vadodara, who, however, ended up choosing Varanasi. People are not happy with the employment or tax situations, but if you feel that’s enough to topple Modi at the Centre, you have another think coming.
“Ye dheela-dhala mahagathbandhan bas Modi ko rokne ke liye bana hai. Hum kya bevkoof hain?” (The Opposition has loosely strung this coalition together only to stop Modi. Are we fools to believe in this?), a stall owner at the Vadodara airport sums it up.
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