The Supreme Court of India heard arguments from the petitioners praying to prevent the 40,000 Rohingyas in India from being deported on 3 October. The Court is due to have another hearing on 13 October, and has requested both parties to desist from emotional arguments.
The other judgemental institution of public acclaim in our country, Arnab Goswami, lambasted the media and policymakers for their ‘political correctness’ on 16 September on Republic TV’s Debate Hour. While he did so, the bold letters “ROHINGYA POLITICS OVER NATIONAL SECURITY?” flashed over the screen – even as he proclaimed that India had enough problems of its own, and the political correctness to use their suffering to make their case was just appeasement.
Media houses like The Wire and NDTV publish stories speaking of the desperate conditions of the Rohingya refugees. Human Rights Watch interviews dozens of displaced Rohingyas, currently in shelters in Bangladesh, and paints a horrifying picture of the persecution and genocide in the Rakhine State in Myanmar.
On the other hand, Zee News and Republic TV repeat reports from Myanmar Army authorities, claiming that the Hindu Rohingyas have been found in mass graves attributed to Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) insurgents, though doubts have been raised on the veracity of these reports.
Some international news outlets place a heavy moral burden upon India in this situation, stating that India’s inaction makes it complicit in the pitiable circumstances of the Rohingya.
This enforced dualism of Mr Goswami seems to be reflected in the arguments marshalled by both sides when it comes to the discourse and discussion around the Rohingya issue. However, what has been neglected is the strong case that can be made in terms of practical politics for India to play a much greater role in helping and protecting the Rohingya – to prevent having to deal with insurgency and terrorism on two fronts rather than one.
The Story Thus Far
The Advisory Commission on Rakhine State was set up in September 2016 by the Government of Myanmar and the Kofi Annan Foundation to study the challenges faced by the Rakhine State, and delivered a stunning report detailing how the Rohingya had become vulnerable to human rights abuse due to a protracted conflict, statelessness and discrimination. A majority Muslim community living in Myanmar for centuries with Bengali ethnic origins, the government had long denied them recognition as citizens.
The report further highlighted the increased radicalisation of the minority group, identifying potential linkages to Pakistan-based terrorist groups and Islamic State influence. Shortly after the release of the report in August 2017, the ARSA launched attacks on police posts that killed 84, with 54 police members missing.
The response of the Myanmar armed forces and the people of the Rakhine state has had catastrophic effects. Entire villages have been burned to the ground, women have been raped, and fleeing refugees are being caught by landmines laid by the military in Rakhine State.
It has created over 8,00,000 refugees in Bangladesh alone, and the Rohingyas have the sad distinction of being at the centre of the world’s fastest-developing refugee crisis. There is much that can be said and written about the terrible conditions of the Rohingya men, women, and children.
China and India are caught between negotiating lucrative contracts with the Rakhine state administration for preferential access to ports for the resource-rich region.
China is negotiating to have privileged access to the deep seaport of Kyaukphyu and India is developing the Sittwe port, the capital of the Rakhine state, while also sending relief supplies to Bangladesh to help provide relief to the Rohingyas. China has plans to invest $10 billion in the Kyaukphyu Special Economic Zone, while Sittwe offers the prospect of port access to India’s landlocked North East provinces.
Neither country wishes to rock the boat while undertaking delicate negotiations with the Myanmar authorities with respect to these long-term projects in the region; being seen as friendly to the Rohingya cause would certainly cause trouble.
China and India have both supported Myanmar’s right to resolve the issue on its own at the UN, preventing more concrete international action.
Avoiding Terror and New Radicals
The Indian government has been strenuously advocating a refoulement-based approach, one that is contrary to previous positions on endangered local minorities fleeing to India, who have usually been accepted and sheltered. The reasoning provided, judging from the government’s responses at the Supreme Court, are all tied into national security.
The Rohingyas are, as per the Centre, a ‘security problem’; the spectre of radicalisation does loom large.
India has already suffered much at the hands of terrorist actions in various regions, both in the present and the past. South Asian history is strewn with multiple examples of displaced social and ethnic groups who have turned to extremist means to achieve their ends.
Avoiding such a situation would be wise for the Indian government, already suffering due to a restive insurgent-driven and Pakistan-funded terrorist movement in Jammu and Kashmir. A substantial number of Rohingyas infiltrating across the somewhat porous eastern border of India with Bangladesh is understandably scary. However, deporting the 40,000 refugees, who have made it to India, and sending some tonnes of relief material is going to ensure precisely that end.
On the Origin on Terrorism in South Asia
All terror groups in modern South Asian history – from the Khalistani terrorists in the Punjab, the Tamil Tigers in Sri Lanka, the Maoists in Nepal, the Ulfa militants in the Indian North East, and the Islamic jihadists in Kashmir today – have some strong common threads with the current situation of the Rohingyas. A distinct social or ethnic group, having faced acknowledged and recognised persecution, feeling neglected or oppressed by a country, have found external support and have become radicalised – the story constantly repeats itself.
Terror attacks have led to more persecution, and the persecution has enhanced the feeling of victimhood, radicalising the next generation. Over time, the cycle of terror is begun in full measure.
In some cases, it has ended with bloody violence; in other cases, it continues to persist.
The future of the Rohingya people for the short-and-medium-term seems rather clear. Bangladesh is gearing up to create a refugee city to house the 8,00,000 odd-refugees that have streamed across its borders.
Authorities have already cautioned against this plan, speaking of overcrowding and hygiene concerns; the largest refugee camp in the world, as it will become upon its completion, will be a fertile ground for jihadi recruitment.
Many will feel justifiably outraged at India’s inaction and token measures, especially the forced removal of 40,000 of their fellows. India will be a plum and opportune target, second only to the Buddhists in the Rakhine state on their hit-list.
The Danger to India
The situation has the potential to escalate into a similar perennial crisis as the one in Kashmir. Bangladesh is already beginning to have trouble holding onto its secular credentials.
On a recent visit to Dhaka, the author was surprised to hear of a general recognition that the country has become more radicalised. The Rohingya issue is deeply coloured in religious overtones, and the shelter being provided to the Rohingya has been painted as a religious duty by the administration to ease any counters it might face in public opinion.
In the past few years, radical Islam has been strongly ascendant in our Eastern neighbour, ignored by much of Indian civil society. Several secular bloggers have been murdered by radical extremists to push back more modern voices.
A recent terrorist attack in Dhaka which led to a hostage situation revealed the power of Islamist networks amongst the youth of Dhaka. The six attackers were young, motivated, well-educated, and from good families.
Bangladesh is seen as a key battleground by the global radical Islamist movement; in the Islamic State’s better times, it had called for a ‘revival of Jihad in Bengal’ and has certainly set up roots there. The 28th militant incident in Bangladesh, for which the Islamic State claimed responsibility, occurred as recently as late March, as a man blew himself up near the Dhaka International Airport.
The number and frequency of these incidents in Bangladesh suggests that there is increasing sympathy for extremist causes.
The Bangladeshi news has covered the Rohingya crisis, dedicating many column inches and primetime minutes to the needs of their ‘Muslim Rohingya brothers’. The local populace repeatedly castigates what it perceives as the duplicitous reactions of China and India. The media reports on statements by groups as Amnesty International which say that deporting the Rohingya would be unconscionable. News from India that border forces are using chilli spray and stun grenades to keep out the Rohingya might be used as propaganda for recruitment in the future.
The Road Ahead
China has rushed to stress the need for a mediated solution to the conflict, offering to play a role in diffusing tension between Bangladesh and Myanmar. It has sent more relief supplies than India, while playing a more active role in defending the actions of the Rakhine state at the United Nations. India, by being more measured in its response to both sides, is seen by Bangladesh and Myanmar as doing and caring less about the situation than China – something that isn’t helping India diplomatically in the immediate scenario.
The UN has made an international appeal for $430 million to help the Rohingya, while the World Food Program has asked for $75 million.
Providing visible aid on humanitarian grounds and shouldering some of this burden with Bangladesh would make India a more responsible regional actor. India should also engage more with Bangladesh, setting up intelligence cooperation to disrupt jihadi recruitment in the region and to prevent it from growing roots in the people of Bangladesh.
Most importantly, it should retract its objections to the 40,000 Rohingya already inside India and shelter them instead of calling the Rohingyas terrorist, lest it become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
(Vipul Nanda is a content writer at a PR firm and a news junkie, interested in the latest IR, technology, and legal policy developments. He can be reached @null_interest. This is a personal blog and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)
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