Narendra Modi and the BJP’s hopes of returning to power in 2019 depend on retaining the Hindutva-leaning vote. Additionally, since this core constituency is still not sizeable enough to influence a general election outcome on its own, salvaging as much of the development-minded plus vote that made the winning difference in 2014 will be crucial.
Given the Modi Sarkar’s patchy-at-best vikas record, the plus vote is going to be difficult to hold on to. The BJP will reckon that its best chance of retaining a meaningful proportion of the plus vote depends on conveying that its failure to usher the promised acche din is not owing to the lack of intent or effort on vikas mascot Modi’s part. Instead, the magnitude and complexity of the legacy problems that were placed before him have upset his plans. If Modi can be eulogized and the opposition, especially the Congress, tarred in the process, only better!
Find Loopholes in the Plot
Hence, we have – and will continue to have – a narrative built around Modi’s passion for development, his empathy, thanks to his own humble background, for the poor and downtrodden, his tireless work ethic et al. And the messy inheritance and unrelenting conspiracies that the hero has had to counter from an opposition with an anti-national, casteist, corrupt, development-hating, divisive, dynastic, Naxal-loving, Luddite, Pakistan-romancing, undemocratic DNA. In the final analysis, the BJP effort will be to cite cherry-picked/ dubious data to suggest that its present stint in power is only a teaser for the #NewIndia blockbuster releasing 2019.
From the opposition perspective, puncturing this Modi-absolving narrative will require not only countering exaggerated claims of achievements, but pointing to how the BJP’s under-performance in government is rooted in misplaced priorities, venality, and incompetence.
There are enough supporting examples of how a preoccupation with unsubstantive, emotional issues and headline management has detracted from the focus on governance, and how agendas have been influenced by crony capitalists (and the consequent whiff of wrongdoing).
Connecting such examples with the lived experiences of the electorate should go a long way in underscoring the point that the BJP’s present stint in power is not a teaser but an unbearable full-fledged movie with a crew and cast incapable of delivering better. A second opportunity, then, would yield not a blockbuster but an even more indifferent product, a carelessly-crafted sequel adding nastier, more brazen tropes.
Appropriate Hindutva
On the face of it, the Hindutva-leaning vote seems safer for the BJP. Hardcore elements may be unimpressed with the pace at which the Hindu Rashtra project has unfolded under Modi’s watch, but the BJP would remain their best political bet for seeing the project through. That said, the opposition has its chances here too.
Of course, it will be disastrous if the opposition were to start chasing the Hindutva vote taking leafs from the BJP playbook. It risks sending the entire polity into a cynical, polarizing race to the bottom and will leave deep, long-term wounds. Electorally, too, it could work to the BJP’s advantage, pushing the entire discourse to a ‘safe’ territory where the BJP holds the cards. Vikas, rather the lack of it, is the BJP’s Achilles Heel at the moment.
The opposition’s chance to chip at the Hindutva-leaning vote depends on how forcefully it targets the BJP for caste bias and dalit atrocities on ground, and the extent to which it demonstrates to voters how priority local issues have been given the shortshrift under BJP rule.
The former should connect with backward-caste and dalit groups and prompt at least neophyte Hindutva adherents among them to revisit their positions. The latter, admittedly, would be a tougher ask and needs a constituency and region-specific pitch. An ideological umbrella construct like Hindutva is best interrogated in real cultures and geographies.
Counter Rhetoric With Reality
It is clear that the BJP’s plus vote of 2014 is far from assured and that it cannot afford to be complacent about its core vote either. The threat has arisen from its disappointing show in power and leaves it little option but to resort to diversionary tactics, including communal polarization, in the run-up to 2019.
Diversionary tactics, the opposition should know by now, can be potent vote mobilization tools. 2014 was a presidential-style contest where rhetoric carried the day, and the BJP, with its powerful propaganda machinery and a combative and smart communicator at its helm, would prefer it that way in 2019.
However, such tactics will necessarily skirt tough-to-face local bread-and-butter issues, and it is here that the opposition must focus its energies. By pointing the electorate of the detritus of betrayed promises around it. By drawing on local feedback to counter development claims and Hindutva, and to inform manifestos that promise substantive change in living situations. Ganna trumped Jinnah. #NewIndia could find its nemesis in something similarly resonant and un-grand sounding.
(Manish Dubey is a policy analyst and crime fiction writer and can be contacted @ManishDubey1972. This is a personal blog and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)
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