If the Union Budget, which was announced on Thursday, 1 February, blares like a siren for the Bharatiya Janata Party, the results of five bypolls, which were announced on the same day, are barely making any sound.
However, the results are alarming for the ruling party.
Easy Wins for the Congress
The BJP has lost bypolls in two of Rajasthan's Lok Sabha constituencies – Alwar and Ajmer – by big margins. The Congress has registered a comfortable win in both these seats.
The Congress has also won the bypoll in the Assembly constituency of Mandalgarh, and this, despite the fact that one of their leaders turned rebel and walked away with a fair share of votes.
The Significance of Rajasthan
Rajasthan is a state which is being viewed as a political compass for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. While on one hand Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje's government faces anti-incumbency, on the other, the magic of Prime Minister Narendra Modi seems to be fading away.
The BJP shouldn't have found Ajmer so hard to win, especially after it fielded late MP Sanwar Lal Jat's son in the constituency.
The Alwar by-election wasn't as high-profile. It is to be noted that Alwar is a Muslim-dominated area where Pehlu Khan was lynched in 2017.
If the BJP had lost these three bypolls with lower margins it could've been argued that the reason was the absence of top leaders in the poll campaign. However, even Congress had left the polls to its local cadres.
No Surprising Results in West Bengal
The West Bengal results came out as expected – the Trinamool Congress (TMC) won one Lok Sabha and one Assembly seat. However, an interesting thing to note is the BJP's vote share. Perhaps the party's long-term strategy in the state is to replace CPI as the primary opposition.
The Upcoming Karnataka Elections
Karnataka goes to polls before Rajasthan this year. If the Congress manages to retain the state, it may hamper the BJP's 2019 aspirations. However, if the latter somehow wins in Karnataka, it would change the game dramatically.
Rajasthan - The Decider
However, the story stops at Rajasthan. It is this state which might showcase the changing political mood in north Indian villages.
It is this nervousness which has led the BJP to focus its Budget on rural India.
However, the Rajasthan bypoll results have signalled a warning for the BJP that this focus might not be enough to fetch the party rural votes.
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