Video editor: Ashutosh Bhardwaj
Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh have been BJP strongholds for years. While the BJP got an unprecedented mandate in the last Assembly and Lok Sabha elections in Rajasthan, we will get to know the mood of the people in these states on 11 December.
But all surveys indicate that it is going to be an uphill task for the BJP to retain its absolute dominance in the three states. What impact will it have on the 2019 Lok Sabha elections?
The three states have a combined Lok Sabha strength of 65 and the BJP had won 62 of them in the 2014 elections. The extent of the BJP's dominance in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan can be understood from the fact that in both the states the saffron party's vote share was a staggering 55 percent.
The three states are known to have straight contests between the Congress and the BJP and the BJP's strike rate was 95 percent last time. Surveys suggest that the strike rate is likely to come down. If the strike rate drops from 95 to 60 percent, the BJP is going to lose 23 seats in the three states alone.
In fact, the BJP's overall winning strike rate in straight contests against the Congress stood at 88 percent.
Of the 189 seats where the two national parties were pitted against each other, the BJP had 166 of them in 2014. If the trend in these three states spreads to other regions, the BJP may end up losing many seats.
From the next round of Assembly elections we will get to know how formidable the Modi premium is. Let us recall that the BJP won in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan with an unprecedented vote share of 55 percent.
Record jump in vote share was attributed to the Modi premium. Once the results are out, we will get to know the vote catching power of the premium.
Some would say that comparing Assembly elections with Lok Sabha elections is a bit unfair. I tend to disagree with the argument for two reasons.
In the three states, voting behaviour of the people in Assembly and General elections has been almost identical. And with the entry of ModI jI on the national scene he has been the most important factor in all elections.
People either vote for him or against him.
Once the Assembly elections are out of the way, coalition building is going to pick up the pace. People keep talking about the index of Opposition unity.
If Congress does as well as surveys predict it to potential allies like Mayawati and Samajwadi party will start flocking to the fold of the grand old party. Coalition building will get a new fillip.
My sense, therefore, is that even a small dent in the BJP's performance may produce dramatic results.
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