The poll season is upon us and the results of the final India Today-Axis poll have been released. A month ahead of the crucial Uttar Pradesh assembly elections, the latest opinion poll brings some interesting insights to the table.
As per the poll, the Samajwadi Party (SP) looks to have weathered the storm and the news of the ruling party joining hands with the Congress has given it the much-needed momentum to put up a strong show in the upcoming elections.
Results of the final opinion poll by India Today-Axis claims that if the elections were held today, the SP-Congress alliance will bag between 168 and 178 seats, as compared to last month’s projections of 97-106 seats.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is projected to lose about 25 seats in UP between the previous opinion poll and the latest one carried out in January. According to the new survey, the BJP would bag between 180-191 seats – a steep decline from projections that showed it getting as much as 210 seats.
However, the poll suggests that the most ground lost in the month has been by Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). The survey projects its winnings to tumble down to 39-43 seats from a high of 85 seats last month.
SP-Congress Gathbandhan Sees Consolidation of Muslim, Yadav Votes
According to the findings of the opinion poll, the SP-Congress “Gathbandhan” has led to a consolidation of the Muslim and Yadav votes for Akhilesh’s party, and has greatly affected the poll arithmetic in UP.
In December, 72 percent of the Yadavs were in favour of voting for the SP. However, in January, that figure went up by 10 percent. The coming together of the two parties has also helped the figure of Muslim voters for the party to shoot up from 71 to 74 percent in January.
The gathbandhan has also seen the SP’s share of upper caste votes go by 10 percent in a month. The party currently enjoys the support of 19 percent upper caste voters in the state.
Interestingly, the BJP has also consolidated strongly when it comes to OBC and upper caste votes. From 53 percent, the BJP's support among the OBCs has gone up to 56 percent, and from 61 percent in December to 68 percent in January for upper caste votes.
Projections for East-West and Central UP
The opinion poll shows that the BJP is set for strong gains in the crucial eastern UP belt. The survey claims that the party is set to win 89 of the 167 seats in the eastern region, while the SP-Congress alliance is looking at 55 seats. The BSP as per current projections will win a meagre 22 seats.
The opinion poll suggests that the western UP belt, which has a strong Muslim presence, will bring gains for the SP-Congress alliance. Of the available 136 seats, the Akhilesh-Rahul gathbandhan is projected to rake in an impressive 68 seats. The BJP is projected to bag 53, while the BSP is likely to bring in 13 seats.
In Central UP, the SP-Congress alliance is projected to win more than half of the available 81 seats. The Axis-Poll claims the newly-minted alliance will win 47 seats, while the BJP will trail it with 31. The BSP’s decline is projected to see it get an abysmal 3 seats.
In Bundelkhand – Mayawati’s stronghold– the BJP is expected to win 12 seats, the SP-Cong alliance 4 and the BSP 3.
Where the Parties Stand in Terms of Vote Share
The current vote-share for parties reveals more interesting findings. The political manoeuvring in Lucknow has hit the BSP hard, and as per the opinion poll, have slashed the party’s poll vote share by almost 6%. It’s current share stands at 20.1%.
SP-Congress alliance has helped improve the popularity of the ruling party, and as a result its vote share has shot by an impressive 7%, and it is projected to bag 33.2% votes.
Interestingly, the BJP's vote-share is also projected to go up from 33% in December to 34.8% in January.
(Source: India Today-Axis Poll)
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