In 2016, global smartphone sales will exhibit single-digit growth for the first time.
Global sales are estimated to reach 1.5 billion units in 2016, a 7 percent growth from 2015. The total mobile phone market is forecast to reach 1.9 billion units in 2016.
Worldwide combined shipments for devices (PCs, tablets and mobile phones) are expected to reach 2.4 billion units in 2016, a 0.6 percent increase from 2015.
The double-digit growth era for the global smartphone market has come to an end. Historically, worsening economic conditions had negligible impact on smartphone sales and spend, but this is no longer the case. China and North America smartphone sales are on pace to be flat in 2016, exhibiting a 0.7 percent and 0.4 percent growth respectively.Ranjit Atwal, Research Director at Gartner.
Emerging Markets Continue to Grow, but at a Slower Rate
While smartphone sales will continue to grow in emerging markets, the growth will slow down. The report also predicts that, through 2019, 150 million users will delay upgrades to smartphones in the emerging Asia-Pacific until the functionality and price combination of a low-cost smartphone becomes more desirable.
Prices did not decline enough to drive upgrades from low-end feature phones to low-end smartphones. Vendors were not able to reduce the price of a ‘good enough to use’ smartphone lower than $50.Annette Zimmermann, Research Director at Gartner.
Countries such as India will help generate new mobile phone user growth. Sales of smartphones in India are on pace to reach 29 percent in 2016 and will continue to exhibit double-digit growth in the next two years, despite the global trend.
Mature Markets to Increase Mobile Phone Lifetimes
In the mature markets of North America, Western Europe, Japan and mature Asia-Pacific, Gartner analysts expect to see an extension of phone lifetimes among users.
As carriers’ deals become more complex, users are likely to hold onto phones, especially as the technology updates become incremental rather than exponential. In addition, the volumes of users upgrading from basic phones to premium phones will slow, with more basic phones being replaced with the same type of phone.Annette Zimmerman
The report suggests that users are not only extending lifetimes, but also that some will fail to replace these devices at all through 2016.