The All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) has belied the taunts it has faced over the years for ‘splitting the anti-BJP votes’ while fighting elections in states like Maharashtra and Bihar.
By joining hands with TTV Dhinakaran’s Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK) in Tamil Nadu, AIMIM President Asaduddin Owaisi has shown that he is interested in denting the BJP’s well crafted election calculations in the state.
The AMMK's alliance with AIMIM ends all hopes of reconciliation between Dhinakaran and the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK).
Here’s how.
AIADMK-BJP-AMMK Triangle
The BJP is an alliance partner of the AIADMK, the party of former Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa. After seat-sharing talks, BJP was awarded 20 seats to contest in the state’s Assembly.
Meanwhile, the AIADMK has been wary of AMMK, which was founded in 2017 by Dhinakaran, a former MP of the party. Dhinakaran along with his aunt VK Sasikala, a former close aide of Jayalalithaa, had founded the party as an affront to AIADMK, after Sasikala's removal from the post of AIADMK general secretary. Her ouster was orchestrated by senior AIADMK leaders including Edappadi K Palaniswamy and O Panneerselvam. Palaniswamy is the present Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu.
With elections round the corner, AIADMK has been fearing that AMMK could divide its votes. AMMK still has the support of several Jayalalithaa loyalists and AIADMK insiders.
Sasikala and Dhinakaran are both Thevar, a dominant caste in Tamil Nadu. The Thevar votes which have been traditionally going to the AIADMK were expected to swing in favour of AMMK.
However, on 3 March, Sasikala, who has been the backbone of the AMMK, announced her retirement from political life. She even requested her followers to support the AIADMK. This was considered a BJP ploy because the national leadership of the party wanted the “AIADMK family” to come together. According to BJP's leaders in Tamil Nadu, the AIADMK alliance “should not have been weakened by ‘DMK factions'".
Meaning, the BJP did not want Sasikala to divide the votes of AIADMK. Though Dhinakaran was also expected to rejoin the AIADMK fold, it was not to be.
Enter Asaduddin Owaisi.
Asaduddin Owaisi and the BJP
The year 2014 was when Owaisi was first called the 'B-team' of the BJP. Reason, his AIMIM whose base is strong primarily in Hyderabad, had decided to contest Assembly elections in Maharashtra. In a state where the fight was between the National Democratic Alliance and the Congress, AIMIM’s presence is believed to have divided ‘secular votes’ in favour of the BJP.
Instead of buckling under this criticism, Owaisi’s AIMIM has since then contested elections in other states as well.
In 2015 AIMIM contested six seats in Bihar’s Seemanchal region. Even though the party did not win there, the Congress front which included the Janata Dal (United), Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) had accused Owaisi, of being the BJP’s B-team. The NDA came to power in Bihar Assembly that year.
Subsequently too, the AIMIM, with its almost entirely Muslim base, has been accused of being ‘a vote cutter’, when it contested yet again in the Maharashtra and Bihar Assembly elections in 2019. It won two seats in Maharashtra and one in Bihar.
To this reporter the President of AIMIM has said on more than one occasion, “The BJP is winning in several places where the AIMIM has not contested. So, why are we being accused of dividing secular votes?”.
Owaisi has also repeatedly said, “Parties like the Congress are not the only ones who have the right over secularism. AIMIM has a long history of fighting for secularism in India”.
In 2020, during the anti-Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) protests, Asaduddin Owaisi was the first Muslim leader to call a meeting of thousands of AIMIM followers, among others, to read out the Preamble of the Indian Constitution in solidarity with the protests.
However, the ‘B-team’ tag stuck. At least till AIMIM entered the Tamil Nadu political arena on Monday, 8 March.
AIMIM Upsets BJP’s TN Maths
AIMIM’s entry into Tamil Nadu can in no way be considered an advantage for the BJP.
By forming an alliance with AMMK, AIMIM has ensured that the former cannot be in an alliance with the BJP and AIADMK. Why? While till last week an AIADMK-BJP-AMMK alliance was possible, with the entry of AIMIM all such possibilities has come to an end, because the AIMIM will never form an alliance with the BJP. Or indeed, vice versa.
“We will never form an alliance with the BJP and never ever have an alliance with anyone who has even remote ties with the BJP,” a senior leader of the AIMIM told The Quint. This means that if the AMMK wants to be an alliance with the AIMIM, they will not be able to join hands with the AIADMK-BJP alliance.
“The AIMIM has always been fighting the Jan Sangh. That is, AIMIM has been fighting the parent organisation of the BJP. We can never form an alliance with them,” the senior leader said.
When asked whether the AMMK will ever form an alliance with the BJP, the AIMIM leader said, “Yes, we are sure that they will never form such an alliance”.
Meaning, the BJP will now have to tolerate any damage that Dhinakaran's AMMK does to the AIADMK in this election, wherever AMMK puts up candidates to take on the BJP-AIADMK alliance.
For now, BJP insists it is upbeat. “We are ready to face anything. AIADMK-BJP will win in TN,” a senior state leader of the BJP told The Quint.
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