Karnataka Rajya Sabha Polls: Will Strained Congress-JD(S) Ties Help BJP?

In Karnataka both Siddaramaiah and DK Shivakumar have been keeping the JD(S) at bay.

In Karnataka, the Congress and JD(S) have had a strained alliance with several spells of disagreements affecting the relationship. The Rajya Sabha polls to four seats in Karnataka, scheduled for 10 June, seem to have become yet another hurdle in the relationship. Will it be a fatal one that could affect the parties in 2023 Legislative Assembly elections?

When the BJP emerged as the single largest party in Karnataka for the first time in the 2004 Assembly elections, it was the Congress that welcomed the JD(S) for an alliance to keep the saffron party out of power. Since then, the two parties have had a tumultuous relationship spanning 18 years, with betrayals affecting both sides. The Rajya Sabha polls have opened old wounds.

Congress Whip in the Legislative Council Prakash K Rathod said the JD(S) has always been considered the 'B-team' of the BJP. "The JD(S) is known for breaking promises and ties up with the Congress and the BJP to suit its conveniences. The party should not forget that it was the Congress which made Kumaraswamy CM (in 2018),'' Rathod told The Quint.

How JD(S) and Congress Are Cancelling Each Other Out

In the upcoming Raja Sabha polls, the BJP which is in power in Karnataka is in a position to get two candidates elected based on the numerical strength of its 122 MLAs, out of which two are Independent MLAs supporting the party. The Congress can get one candidate elected on its own as it has 70 MLAs including one independent. However, the fourth seat is up for grabs as none of the three parties – BJP, Congress, and JD(S) – have the numerical strength to get a candidate elected to this seat.

To win each seat, each candidate should get 45 votes. As JD(S) has only 32 MLAs, it will have to take the support of either the additional MLAs of the BJP or the Congress to win at least one seat.

That is, the BJP will have 32 MLAs to spare to vote the fourth candidate to power. Similarly, the Congress will be able to spare 25 MLAs to vote for the fourth candidate. Given this situation, it was expected that only a candidate approved by both Congress and JD(S) will be fielded in the fourth seat so that both the parties can vote to get this candidate elected.

However, the frosty relationship between the JD(S) and the Congress turned colder when JD(S) leader HD Kumaraswamy stated in May that JD(S) will field a candidate in the fourth seat on its own.

While the Congress met Kumaraswamy’s father and JD(S) supremo HD Deve Gowda, JD(S) did not assure that it will support the Congress’ candidate. Hence on 31 May, both JD(S) and Congress fielded their candidates for the fourth seat. Since then, several talks were held between the two parties to arrive at a consensus on whom to vote to power and how. All these talks have failed.

Common Aim To Defeat the BJP Defeated?

The tug of war between the two parties has benefited the BJP, which has also fielded its candidate, Lahar Singh Siroya, for the fourth seat. If Congress and JD(S) fail to arrive at a common candidate to vote for, the BJP candidate could get the votes from dissidents in these parties.

Would crossvoting help the BJP win, though the ballot paper has to be shown to each party's polling agents before it is dropped into the box?

In 2016, JD(S) nominee and business magnate BM Farookh lost the Rajya Sabha polls, when eight JD(S) MLAs crossvoted for the benefit of Congress candidate KC Ramamurthy, who is now in the BJP. In 2004, former CM Ramakrishna Hegde's wife Shakuntala Hegde was the surprise candidate of the BJP for the Rajya Sabha polls. But she lost with seven BJP MLAs cross voting and Congress’s BK Hariprasad, who was the fourth candidate, polling the highest of 48 votes among all the others.

Meanwhile, the Congress and the JD(S) have been asking each other’s ranks to keep the defeat of BJP their common aim. The vote should be for a secular candidate, both the parties have said.

But in effect, the Congress has been pushing for the fresh face it fielded, a Muslim candidate and KPCC’s General Secretary, Mansoor Ali Khan, and the JD(S) has been rooting for former MP and realtor D Kupendra Reddy.

The Congress, according to sources, is miffed that the JD(S) did not return the favour of unanimously electing HD Deve Gowda to Rajya Sabha in 2020. Then, the Congress had lent its MLAs to vote Gowda to power. In this tumult, what has gone missing is the alliance partners’ zeal to defeat the BJP, which may end up having three Rajya Sabha MPs if Congress and JD(S) do not settle their differences.

The Congress, however, plans to exploit the discontent among some JD(S) MLAs, who may join the party during 2023 Assembly polls.

Some JD(S) legislators are also upset that in every Rajya Sabha and Legislative Council polls, tickets have been given to moneybags. As the BJP is the ruling party, it has the advantage because its tally of second preference votes for Siroya are the highest.

Is It Siddaramaiah & Shivakumar v. Kumaraswamy?

The JD(S) declining to support the Congress in Rajya Sabha polls may affect the Assembly elections scheduled for 2023. In the last few months, Siddaramaiah has emerged as the face of the Congress designated to attack the JD(S), take on the RSS or the right-wing groups on hijab and other issues.

"He had a major say in the candidates selection (for Rajya Sabha polls), where he ensured that the two tickets should be given to a Muslim or other backward class person and former minister SR Patil was denied the seat. Khan is also Siddaramaiah's decision," a Congress leader said.

Meanwhile, for the first time in the recent years, the JD(S), which was once a kingmaker of sorts, has been stumped in its own game. The setback to JD(S) is also because of the festering political animosity between two former Chief Ministers Siddaramaiah and HD Kumaraswamy, who have been trading barbs since the fall of the JD(S)-Congress government in 2019.

The name calling against each other went to an extent where Kumaraswamy in September 2021 said he was not a "domesticated parrot" (referring to a Kannada song nee sakida gini, a parrot which betrays its master) of Siddaramaiah while the latter hit back saying his party has had to coalesce with "vultures."

Congress sources said that Siddaramaiah has not gotten over the fact that the Deve Gowda family deprived him of the Chief Minister's post.

He never reconciled to the Congress High Command's decision to form a government with Kumaraswamy as the CM in 2018. The government collapsed after 14 months with 17 Congress-JD(S) MLAs resigning, they added.

After the 2019 breakup, the Congress and JD(S) have contested Assembly by-polls and elections to Legislative Council and local bodies without any alliance with each other. Though a section in the Congress nurture a soft corner for the Deve Gowda family, party insiders said that Siddaramaiah and KPCC President DK Shivakumar have kept the JD(S) at bay.

For Shivakumar, the compulsion is to retain his leadership in Bengaluru rural, which is the home turf for both Kumaraswamy and himself. He also wants to retain his position as the next Vokkaliga leader.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls both Shivakumar and Kumaraswamy came together to campaign for the latter's son Nikhil Kumaraswamy. Shivakumar had said that Kumaraswamy and he were the original "original jodiyethu" (pair of oxen) to indicate that they will stay united. This promise, however, has not panned out.

Will this standoff between the JD(S) and the Congress affect the Assembly polls? Well, there is time to better the soured relationship. The question is: Will either of the parties withdraw their candidature in the fourth seat or will the fight reach the ballot box?

(Naheed Ataulla is a senior political journalist based in Bengaluru.)