Following in the footsteps of the Bihar government, the Congress-led government in Karnataka said it would "definitely publish" the findings of the 2015 caste census undertaken by the State Commission for Backward Classes, which is likely to submit its report in November this year.
Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah said last week that he has requested the outgoing chairman of the commission, Jayaprakash Hegde, to submit the report, and that "if he does so, we will definitely issue it."
The release of a caste census report appears advantageous to the Congress and the 'INDIA' bloc – as it may help bust the "homogenous Hindutva" narrative of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
But experts say it would not be without repercussions in Karnataka – not just for the BJP and the Janata Dal (Secular), but also for the ruling Congress.
"Normally, governments hesitate to release a caste census report because they fear they may lose their built-up political capital. As soon as communities know they are either under or overrepresented, their demands will change – and this, in turn, would change the vote dynamics," political analyst Tara Krishnaswamy tells The Quint.
Caste Census & the Lingayat-Vokkaliga Equation
It was in his previous term as Chief Minister (2013-2018) that Siddaramaiah green-lit the Socio-Economic Survey (or caste census) in the state. The Backward Classes Commission, then headed by H Kantharaju, submitted the caste census report in 2018, when HD Kumaraswamy was chief minister in the JD(S)-Congress government.
The report, however, was purportedly rejected as it was not signed by a member secretary of the commission.
But in the same year, some parts of the report were allegedly leaked. If the leaked figures are anything to go by, the Lingayats and Vokkaligas – the two dominant communities in Karnataka – are smaller in population than currently estimated.
Though the Lingayats and Vokkaligas belong to the OBC group, they are the 'forward castes' of the OBCs as they hold ample social and political clout. As per current figures, they account for 27 percent of the state's total population.
To date, Karnataka has had five Chief Ministers from the Vokkaliga community and seven from among the Lingayats.
But the leaked report – the contents of which The Quint hasn't been able to independently verify – claims that the population of Scheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes, Muslims, and the Kuruba (non-dominant) OBCs has increased and account for a little under 50 percent of the total population of the state.
So, naturally, both Lingayats and Vokkaligas are against the release of the report as it may lead to a potential decline in their political influence, say experts.
What Does This Mean for Congress?
"In the previous Assembly elections, the Congress came to power mostly because of the AHINDA (a Kannada acronym for minorities, backward classes, and Dalits) votes," senior political journalist Naheed Ataulla tells The Quint.
The Lingayats, which are traditionally BJP voters, are said to have given 5 percent votes to the Congress, she adds.
The Vokkaliga community – which is known to back the JD(S) – is also believed to have lent its support to the Congress this time, on account of Deputy Chief Minister DK Shivakumar's influence.
On the other hand, Siddaramaiah, who belongs to a non-dominant OBC caste, is being projected as the "champion of the Backward Classes in Karnataka," says Ataulla.
A recent case in point is the Congress government approving the recommendation of the Justice Bhaktavatsala Commission to grant 33 percent reservation to OBCs in urban local bodies and panchayat elections, she points out.
This is in addition to the various poll guarantees that focus on BPL families.
But while a potential increase in the AHINDA population (as per the leaked report) may benefit the Congress, the party cannot afford to antagonise the Vokkaligas and Lingayats, Ataulla opines.
"The Congress is already facing a lot of heat from the Vokkaligas and Lingayats, who are opposed to this report – and this does not bode well for the party."
Secondly, experts say that only time will tell if the findings of the caste census will result in the consolidation of the Backward Classes' votes.
"The surface-level assumption will be that because of Siddaramaiah's AHINDA vote bank, the increased OBC votes will help Karnataka, and it will be in the Congress' favour. But the ground reality is different. The OBC vote bank is not united, whereas the dominant classes are much more united than the vote bank," a Congress leader told Hindustan Times on the condition of anonymity.
"Karnataka is one of those states that has not had a very prominent caste-based revolution or reconciliation. It is dominated by the upper castes, which is why the Lingayats and Vokkaligas are so powerful. So, there is no precedence as to how this will play out," says Krishnaswamy.
"The consolidation of votes – be it of Backward Classes' or dominant castes' – depends on what the Congress does with the caste census it releases. Once the figures are out, there will be demands. What the Congress does with these demands will determine which way the vote goes," she further explains.
What Does This Mean for BJP & JD(S)?
"As far as the BJP is concerned, its entire story is built around the homogeneity of Hindutva or a pan-Hindu unity. It is a binary claim – there are Hindus and there are others. That's the way the BJP likes to look at things. However, it is completely different from reality," Krishnaswamy points out.
"Karnataka votes by caste – and the minute you are releasing a caste census, you are reminding people of their caste alignment. And when you do that, you are negating what the BJP has worked very hard for – which is the homogeneity of Hindutva."
Explaining how previously, too, caste has trumped the Hindu card for the BJP, Ataulla says:
"In the previous elections, the BJP was banking on the SC/ST vote bank. But after (former CM) Basavaraj Bommai's decision to tweak the state's reservation policy by providing internal reservations to the SCs, increasing the quota for Lingayats and Vokkaligas, removing Muslims from the Backward Classes category, and adding them to the Economically Weaker Sections (EWS), they lost out on some support."
Meanwhile, the JD(S), which is the third player in Karnataka, had some Muslim support in the past, which may further decline now that it has allied with the BJP, she adds.
But if the AHINDA votes are consolidated in the Congress' favour, it is likely that it would lead to a consolidation of Vokkaliga-Lingayat votes as well, which could work in the favour of the BJP-JD(S) alliance, experts say.
"Any consolidation based on the report's findings could have a ripple effect," A Narayana, a professor of public policy and governance at Azim Premji University, told HT.
"If the dominant castes fear OBCs are consolidating, they would start to consolidate behind one party or alliance. Similarly, if the OBCs see any sort of mobilisation of the dominant castes, it would mean they could rally behind the Congress," he told the publication.
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