As the predictions for several exit polls for the 2022 assembly elections pour in, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is predicted to form the government in Punjab with the Congress emerging as the runners up in the single phase election held on 20 February.
As per India Today-My Axis poll, AAP is slated to win between 76-90 seats with a 41% vote share.
The ABP-C Voter survey has predicted 51-61 seats for Kejriwal's party with Congress being a distant second with 22-28 seats.
Zee News-DesignBoxed exit Polls claim that the AAP will win 52-61 seats as the Congress (26-33) and Shiromani Akali Dal (24-32) battle it out for the number two position.
The Times Now-VETO survey also gives a mandate of 70 seats for the Aam Aadmi Party with a vote share of 40.43%.
What are the possible reasons which define AAP's popularity in the state and what do these predictions mean for other key players like the Congress and the Akali Dal?
Curiosity Around The 'Delhi Model'
AAP seems to have gained heavily from a wave of anti-incumbency against the Congress but also the Shiromani Akali Dal — traditionally the key players in the state's politics.
The party successfully set the poll agenda as issues of rising unemployment, dilapidated healthcare infrastructure during the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation, education, and other civic issues resonated with voters on ground. This presented the incumbent Congress party with the challenge to compete with Kejriwal's famed 'Delhi model of governance'.
The Bhagwant Mann Factor
In the 2017 assembly elections when AAP made significant inroads in Punjab winning 20 out of 112 seats they contested on, with a vote share of 23.7%, the party faced criticism for not announcing a chief ministerial face.
Conspiracy theories were floated that the reason behind this move were Arvind Kejriwal's own ambitions to become the chief minister of Punjab, an accusation which Charanjit Singh Channi also levelled against the Delhi chief minister in an interview with The Quint just ahead of the 2022 elections.
In 2022, however, AAP was better prepared as Sangrur MP Bhagwant Mann was declared as the chief ministerial candidate. Mann, a popular Sikh face of the party enjoys huge popularity in the Malwa region.
AAP was again seen as setting the election agenda when Channi decided to compete from two seats with Bhadaur in Malwa region being the second choice after his traditional Chamkaur Sahib seat. Bhadaur which is by no means a Congress stronghold is also a part of Mann's Lok Sabha constituency of Sangrur.
Congress' Self-Made Crisis
The stepping down of Captain Amarinder Singh from the top post in September 2021 triggered a domino effect for Congress' troubles in the state.
From leadership crisis with reports of Navjot Singh Sidhu, Charanjit Singh Channi, and Sunil Jakhar gunning for the top post to a clueless high command, the infighting in the Congress seems to have puzzled the voters on ground.
While Channi's elevation might have helped consolidate the Dalit vote with Congress predicted to be ahead of other parties in the Doaba region, the constant exchange of barbs between Captain, and Congress leaders including Priyanka Gandhi have harmed the party's overall image among the voters.
Impact Of Farmers' Protest
The year-long farmers' protest were touted to be one of the most decisive factors for the Punjab elections. While the overall sentiment of the protest was against the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the Congress seems to have been unable to cash on the sentiment on ground.
The Aam Aadmi Party, on the other hand, established familiarity with the farmers as senior leaders of the party like Arvind Kejriwal, Manish Sisodia, and Raghav Chaddha regularly visiting the protesters on ground.
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