Nitish Ghar Wapsi: Here Are the Big Winners and Losers In Bihar

JD(U), RJD, BJP and Congress: What does Nitish Kumar’s alliance with NDA mean for Bihar’s four political parties?

Nitish Kumar is back as the Chief Minister of Bihar, but after irrevocably changing the political equations in the state. This is how the politically charged night unfolded:

First, Kumar resigned as the CM, withdrew from the Mahagatbandhan, sought support from the BJP and formed the government again. All in a span of four hours – before RJD’s Lalu Prasad Yadav could return to Patna on Saturday.

What does Nitish Kumar’s move towards an alliance with NDA mean for Bihar’s main political parties? Here’s a quick analysis of the big wins and losses.

JD(U): Short-term Wins, But Shadow of Long-term Loss

GAINS:

i. The biggest win for JD(U) is that Nitish Kumar is still the chief minister of Bihar, with an added dash of positioning himself as anti-corruption and rising above petty politics.

LOSSES:

i. End of Nitish Kumar’s Social Engineering?

Since November 2005, Nitish Kumar’s political plank has been a social engineering strategy which is based on a coalition of OBCs, EBCs, Mahadalits and minorities. By going back to BJP, his old alliance partner, Kumar has alienated the backward Muslims in Bihar. Furthermore, to re-establish his appeal among the EBCs and Mahadalits, he would have to compete with BJP – the JD(U)’s brand new friend and alliance partner.

ii. Possibility of Being Overpowered by BJP?

JD(U) may be the bigger partner in the newly-formed alliance in Bihar today, but there’s a very real danger that Nitish Kumar may be rendered politically obsolete by BJP. If history is anything to go by, the BJP tends to overpower regional parties in a state – especially those parties they are in alliance with as junior partners. Remember Chimanbhai Patel’s Congress in Gujarat? Or Janata Dal (Secular) in Karnataka? Or even Shiv Sena in Maharashtra?

RJD: On the Edge of Extinction, With a Ray of Hope

LOSSES:

i. Spate of Court Cases

On the night of 26 July 2017, when his friend-turned-alliance partner, Nitish Kumar was announcing his resignation, Lalu Prasad Yadav was in Ranchi, set to appear in the fodder scam cases. With Yadav out of power in the state and the Centre, the rash of court cases against him are bound to become more frequent — taking him away from politics.

ii. Downfall of Lalu’s Succession Line?

Was Lalu’s ‘beta prem’ the reason behind Nitish Kumar’s political turnaround? In the days leading up to Nitish Kumar’s resignation, Lalu Prasad Yadav had ruled out the then-Deputy CM’s Tejaswi Yadav’s resignation. This sparked accusations of nepotism and dynastic politics against Lalu. Since Nitish Kumar’s resignation is being positioned as a stance against corruption, the second line of the Yadav dynasty looks like it’s in danger of political extinction.

iii. Back to Muslim-Yadav Formula

With the Mahagatbandhan or Grand Alliance now in tatters, Lalu Prasad Yadav will be forced to resort to the Muslim-Yadav formula to stay politically relevant in Bihar.

GAINS:

i. Only Pro-Muslim Leader in Bihar?

With Nitish Kumar alienating JD(U)’s Muslim vote bank, Lalu Prasad Yadav looks ready to become the sole leader who can be seen pro-Muslim in Bihar, where they constitute around 17% of the population.

ii. Lalu Leads National Grand Alliance?

The Mahagatbandhan was supposed to signify hopes of a grand, secular coalition at a national level to fight BJP in the 2019 general election. With Nitish out of the scene, if such a rainbow coalition is cobbled together nationally, Lalu Prasad Yadav would be able to helm it, since he has been consistently opposed to the BJP since 2014.

3. BJP: Laughing All the Way to Power

GAINS:

i. End of the Mahagatbandhan

The biggest victory for the BJP is that Nitish Kumar’s decision to join hands with NDA signals the end of the Mahagatbandhan in Bihar — and a credible political opposition nationally as well.

ii. Chance of Getting Pole Position in Bihar?

In 2015 Bihar elections, BJP won 53 seats and polled 24.45 of the vote share. Now, as a junior partner in a JD(U) led-coalition government in Bihar, with sustained campaigning and strategising, the party may be in a position to get the pole position in the state.

iii. Stronger Presence in Rajya Sabha

With JD(U) allying itself with BJP, the party is set to immediately gain 10 seats in the Rajya Sabha from Bihar, thereby strengthening its position in the Upper House.

iv. Another Regional Party Bites the Dust

Whether it’s the JD(U) or the RJD, Nitish Kumar’s tactical volte face has left both of Bihar’s regional parties weaker — making way for the BJP to establish its dominance.

Congress: Yeh Kahaan Aa Gaye Hum?

LOSSES

i. Whither, Opposition?

With Nitish Kumar definitively leaving the Mahagatbandhan, the Congress-led Opposition has been dealth a huge blow from which it might be difficult to recover.

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