The crisis between Janata Dal (United) (JDU) and Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) over Bihar deputy Chief Minister Tejashwi Yadav's resignation has come to a peak. Speculation is rife that the alliance between the two parties is headed for a split.
While the RJD has been adamant about not yielding to calls for Tejashwi's resignation, JDU gave a befitting reply on Friday, indicating that its chief Nitish Kumar may quit himself if the junior Yadav does not step down.
The differences between the two parties seemed to have prompted Congress President Sonia Gandhi to intervene, with rumours circulating that she individually talked to both Nitish and Lalu over the phone. However, RJD's Lalu has denied talking to Gandhi.
With the political future of the state suddenly becoming uncertain, we look at the various possibilities and alternatives that are available to the two parties which made history in 2015 by forging an alliance in view of the Bihar assembly elections, staving off a potent threat by the BJP.
1. RJD Replaces the Deputy CM
The first possibility is that RJD, under pressure from the JD(U) and Congress, removes Tejashwi from the post of Deputy CM and anoints a new face who is a Lalu loyalist. This would serve to protect Nitish's image, would not negatively impact the RJD and ultimately, the government would continue to function in the same way as it used to.
It is possible that the a tainted Lalu would accept such an arrangement.
2. Wait Till The Chargesheet Is Filed
It can be argued by the RJD that merely an FIR has been registered against Tejashwi Yadav, and the JD(U) should wait till a chargesheet is filed. However, considering the pace with which investigation agencies are turning on the heat against Lalu Yadav's family, the possibility that the JD(U) will give more time to its ally stands weakened.
In the context of the rapidly changing political circumstances, it will be difficult for CM Nitish to continue avoiding the matter.
3. RJD Can Support The Nitish Government From Outside
If the conflict worsens, it is possible that the RJD will leave the government. There is also speculation that Lalu's party will take a major decision in this regard after the Presidential elections.
It is important to note that the JD(U) possesses an upper hand in the event of a split in the Grand Alliance, as the BJP has already extended the hand of friendship to Nitish's party.
On the other hand, RJD is not in a position to bargain. In such a situation, its only option is to support the Nitish government from the outside and therefore keep the government and the Mahagathbandhan intact.
4. Keep The Government Running As It Is
Without succumbing to the pressure by its partner, RJD clarified once again on Friday that Tejashwi Yadav would not resign. Its argument is that Tejashwi has been made the deputy CM by the people, so why should he resign on the basis of political demands?
In this scenario, the possibility is that the government will continue to run, despite a 'friendly fight' playing out between the two alliance partners.
However, considering the kind of bitter rhetoric that the media is engaging in on the issue, the possibility of such a scenario stands weakened.
Nevertheless, allegations and counter allegations are a part of politics. In politics, an allegation is considered to be a conspiracy hatched by the opposition until it is proven.
5. Nitish Kumar Joins The BJP
In the last few days, there have been several instances where Nitish seemed to be going soft on the policies of Narendra Modi and the Central government. On a few issues, he extended his full support to the Modi government – the most significant instance being JD(U)'s support for Ram Nath Kovind, the NDA's Presidental candidate. This has unsettled other Opposition parties who are seeking to forge a unity of sorts against the BJP.
However, one cannot say that Nitish is very eager to revive the friendship with his old ally BJP. There is a possibility that he is targeting someone else, keeping the 2019 elections in mind.
Whatever might be Nitish’s game plan, one needs to know that there is a possibility of Nitish forging an alliance with the BJP due to political compulsions.
Whatever the end result, one should bear in mind these two proverbs: one, which says that an old friend is better than two new friends, and the other which claims that when the time for complete destruction comes, wise people protect whatever they can.
(This article was originally published in Quint Hindi. Translation by Kabir Upmanyu.)
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