Prime Minister Narendra Modi may hope to ride out the demonetisation storm because his opponents lack credibility at the national level, apart from being divided, and because of the extraordinary patience of ordinary people in accepting their inconvenience.
Furthermore, the fact that the people have retained their faith in the Prime Minister – till now – is evident from the series of election victories notched up by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the municipal polls in Maharashtra, Gujarat, Rajasthan and Chandigarh.
True, the Trinamool Congress, which is perhaps Modi's most trenchant critic, has also won several elections in its political hinterland, showing how the areas of influence of the various parties have become firmly demarcated. But Modi's political clout is undoubtedly spread over a larger area.
Modi's real test, however, will be in the Uttar Pradesh elections next year. More than the polls in Punjab, Uttarakhand, Goa, and Manipur, which are likely to be held at the same time, the outcome in Uttar Pradesh will demonstrate how the BJP’s vikas purush (man of development) is faring half-way through his tenure.