With Parliament set to amend the Nari Shakti Vandan Adhiniyam or the Women's Reservation Bill, Indian politics is entering a disruptive phase—in both substance and scale. Delimitation slips into the script as the proverbial cat among pigeons.
By setting the clock back to the 2011 Census for delimitation, the Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government is aiming to maximise political gains without causing heartburn in the southern states over losing relative influence in Parliament.
Parliament had passed the landmark bill to reserve 33 percent seats in legislative bodies in 2023 to grab a women-focussed narrative ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. But the subsequent narrative linked the implementation to the next delimitation. That sent the implementation timeline further away. In an age when distance becomes abstract, the women reservation plot seemingly failed to mine the votes for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
The BJP now wants the women quota in Parliament to shape the narrative for the 2029 Lok Sabha elections. Earlier, implementation was expected only by the 2034 elections. But to play the 2034 game, the BJP must first cross the 2029 hurdle. The 2024 verdict, which denied the party a majority on its own in the Lok Sabha, still haunts the party’s top brass.
The ‘All Guns Blazing’ West Bengal Poll
While the BJP claims to be the change agent in politically empowering the women, the real efforts per the last two Lok Sabha elections have been made by Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal and Navin Patnaik in Odisha—they fielded a large number of women to actually become the MPs.
Mamata’s hold on the women vote base remains a worry for the BJP despite the party's loudmouths in West Bengal already claiming victory due to Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of the electoral roll.
The BJP leaders believe that Mamata rules the hearts of women in West Bengal. On the other hand, the BJP in the Modi-Amit Shah era stays short on women political talent base on popularity. Against Mamata’s TMC, the BJP largely presents a male-dominated outfit in the West Bengal elections.
At the same time, the BJP is operating in a “now or never” mode in West Bengal. This urgency partly explains why the Centre did not wait for the completion of ongoing elections before convening a parliamentary session to address women’s reservation.
Dealing with Delimitation Politically
The Census 2027 has been delayed by five years. Meanwhile, the delimitation freeze—first imposed in 1976 and extended periodically, including by the Vajpayee government in 2001 for 25 years—is set to expire in 2026. Letting go of such a moment without leveraging its political potential does not fit into the Modi playbook.
Fresh population data could push delimitation closer to the 2029 Lok Sabha elections. At the same time, projections have already triggered political concerns in southern states about the possibility of northern, western, and central states gaining disproportionate representation in Parliament.
However, the South gained a significant stake in the Modi government with the BJP’s loss of its own majority in the Lok Sabha in 2024 and the subsequent dependence on Telugu Desam Party (TDP) in Andhra Pradesh. That balance to minimise pains for southern states may possibly be credited to Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N. Chandra Babu Naidu. The likely compromise—basing delimitation on the 2011 Census—helps maintain a balance and minimise friction. This option would not have been available had the latest Census already been completed.
Women Quota and the Modi Disruption
Modi has a wont for building an image of a disruptor. This spurred him to unleash demonetisation at a time when the Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections were only a few months away. While the verdict on demonetisation within the larger saffron family remains negative, with the economy still carrying pain, the verdict on political gains was overwhelmingly positive. Opposition outfits were pushed onto a slide in regions of the BJP’s electoral competence.
The amendment to the women quota bill promises to be such a disruptor in Indian politics. It catches the Opposition unprepared and off guard. While Opposition parties believed that they have to deal with the challenges accompanying the women reservation in legislatures closer to the 2034 elections, the BJP had already begun groundwork as early as 2024.
The challenges are twofold and they will test all political parties. First, identifying a large pool of winnable women candidates. With an expanded Lok Sabha, around 239 seats could be reserved. The BJP had reportedly begun identifying multiple potential women candidates per constituency well in advance. The Opposition, particularly the Congress, may not be as prepared.
The second challenge is mobilising resources for contesting elections. On this scale, the BJP can claim advantage even on declared donations, placing it significantly ahead of the Congress.
The icing on the cake is a bonus that the BJP scripts for the party — obliterating any scope of anti-incumbency in 2029 against MPs. The BJP can frame the expansion as an increase in representation—more MPs per constituency, more resources, more attention. The anti-incumbency is also fuelled by ticket aspirants within a party. The BJP will say — we just made the pie large, take a sumptuous bite and thrive!
(The author is a senior Delhi-based journalist, who has covered the JD (U) and the BJP for over two decades for India’s leading English dailies. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed are the author's own. The Quint does not endorse or is responsible for them.)