Delhi Polls: Caste, Gender, Purvanchal, Punjab On BJP's Mind As It Picks Next CM

At his third election rally in Delhi’s RK Puram, Prime Minister Narendra Modi made the pitch of 'Modi ki guarantee' in the Assembly elections. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leaders are now crediting that very rally for their turn of fortune in Delhi. The BJP is asserting that ‘Modi ki guarantee’ triumphed over ‘Kejriwal ki guarantee’. The BJP, thus, is crediting ‘Brand Modi’ for the poll victory in the national capital.To give the BJP an edge, Modi reiterated in his campaigns in Delhi that none of the ongoing welfare schemes will be discontinued. He took the ownership of the promise to continue with all the schemes of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) led government in Delhi.The party is likely to give a long rope to the CM pick, with at least two decades for the nominee to deliver on the agenda of the saffron outfit. Insiders in the BJP have dropped cues that the CM choice is likely to be in early 50s.At the same time, the BJP will also be ensuring that the candidate has a 'clean image' so that he helps the party win new voters in Delhi. The BJP will be mindful that the AAP can spring a comeback with Arvind Kejriwal as the mascot. That will give premium to clean image in making the CM choice.'Could BJP Declare Amit Shah as CM Face in Gujarat Elections?' Asks KejriwalBy fielding a number of heavyweight candidates in the Assembly elections, the BJP has served up a broad basket of potential CM candidates for political pundits to ponder over. Yet, the BJP by past choices has also made it clear that the CM choice is limited to elected legislators. The next Delhi CM will most likely be from the winning candidates of the BJP.The saffron outfit has largely been troubled in the past in Delhi for its pro-Punjabi image. Purvanchalis, forming sizable constituents of Delhi's population, flocked to the Congress and, later the AAP.The BJP polled the highest votes in the 2020 Assembly elections since 1993 at 38.50 percent when Manoj Tiwari, who hails from Bihar, was the president of the Delhi unit of the party. The highest polling percentage for the BJP was in the 1993 Assembly elections with 47.5 percent when Madan Lal Khurana was at the helm. On the other hand, the BJP may also prefer a Dalit candidate for the CM post in Delhi. This may be explained by the urgency on the part of the saffron outfit to make an outreach to the almost 20 percent Dalit vote base in Delhi. Besides, the BJP will also seek to appeal to the Dalit constituency in other states. Dushyant Gautam would have been a strong choice, but he lost the election from Karol Bagh to the AAP's Vishesh Ravi. A Jat face like Parvesh Verma, the giant-killer who defeated Kejriwal, may also be a serious contender for the post of the CM. The Jat vote base in Haryana, Rajasthan, and Western Uttar Pradesh may appeal to the BJP brass while making a choice for the CM face in Delhi.The party might also pick a Sikh face with an eye on politics beyond the state. Manjinder Singh Sirsa has been playing a big role for the BJP in terms of its Punjab and Sikh outreach. The farmers' agitation at Khanauri has been a roadblock for the national government – and it may be looking to appease the leaders by making a Sikh face the Delhi CM. Sirsa's own image is clean – and he has a strong presence in Delhi Sikh Gurdwara Management Committee.Former Delhi University Students' Union (DUSU) president Rekha Gupta is also a potential consideration if the party wants to play the woman card. The BJP has no woman CM in any of the states, so it bolsters their claim as a party that supports women's empowerment. Gupta's student politics background might also bring BJP the opportunity for the party to work on their youth connect.While former AAP leader Kailash Gahlot, who resigned from the Kejriwal-led outfit and joined the BJP in November 2024, was an impressive face, the party is not likely to pick him as he switched over from the AAP. Among the leaders with Purvanchali influence, Manoj Tiwari is not likely to be considered as sources within claim there is strong Opposition against the leader in sections of the Delhi BJP unit. If the CM comes form the Purvanchal side, it would be a 'non-name'.The BJP has in the past burnt its fingers by prematurely projecting CM faces in Delhi, having unsuccessfully pitched Vijay Kumar Malhotra, Harsh Vardhan, and Kiran Bedi in the past elections. The post-poll brainstorming revealed the party's failure each time to contest elections as a united force. Having premeditated CM candidates as a strategy perhaps backfired as sections within the party itself were not enthused by the choices.By not projecting any CM face, the central leadership of the BJP takes the whole onus of the campaign and projects ‘Brand Modi’ in state elections. The party, thus, keeps strengthening the principal poll mascot of the party.Delhi Elections: How & Why Kejriwal, Sisodia, Top AAP Leaders Lost Their SeatsThe party has been employing the same policy for some time now. The saffron victories in Chhattisgarh and Odisha were achieved without projecting any potential CM face. Indeed, the BJP’s chief election strategist Amit Shah employed a new campaigning pitch in state elections where he sought votes for individuals, saying, “Vote for him, I will make him a big man”.These stunts fed speculations and narratives around the possibility of so-and-so candidate becoming the CM if the BJP wins in both Chhattisgarh or in Odisha. In both the states, the BJP won and ended such speculations by playing the tribal card, taking its followers and even some party leaders by surprise.In fact, pulling surprises is the USP of the BJP top brass. While the spotlight may be on known faces of the BJP, the top brass of the party has been known to spring surprises at the very last minute in several states. First-term MLA Bhajan Lal Sharma surprised well-entrenched leaders in Rajasthan by bagging the endorsement of the BJP brass to become CM of the state.Mohan Yadav in Madhya Pradesh also surprised many state satraps in the BJP. Mohan Charan Manjhi in Odisha almost normalised the surprise factor in the choice of the top brass of the BJP in picking up CM where the party wins elections.The BJP’s key strength in winning elections lies in the base of the party workers. Modi, from the ramparts of the Red Fort, said that he would bring lakhs of youth in the mainstream of politics who have no political lineage. He made it amply clear with him at the helm, the BJP is grooming the next generation of leaders from the lots of the party workers. Delhi Elections: On Polling Day, 3 Big Factors Will Decide Who Wins Which SeatIndeed, the top brass seems to have started perceiving regional or party leaders with established names and influence in state politics as a liability. A case in point could be observed in the case of the political heavyweight Kailash Vijayvargiya being made minister under a the much more politically junior Mohan Yadav in Madhya Pradesh. The BJP, thus, shores up morale of the party workers and fires their ambitions. This is possibly a big threat for the political rivals of the BJP who are not yet according higher importance to the workers of their respective parties. The BJP has clearly identified that regional parties are roadblocks to the expansion of the party's national presence. The BJP’s lack of success in its ‘Mission South’ is blamed to the clout of the regional parties.The BJP also assesses that personality cult is at the core of the strength of the regional political parties. The failure against Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal has seemingly made the party focus more on party workers than pandering to satraps. The success of Odisha has also bolstered the resolve of the BJP to further fire the political aspirations of party workers by promoting non-personality cult politics.Delhi's next CM face is still in the shadows but the BJP's insurmountable victory in the capital after 27 years may spell further doom for regional and local powers, parties and politicians hoping to challenge the Modi sarkar.(Author is a senior journalist based in New Delhi with over two decades of political journalism with The New Indian Express, The Asian Age, Deccan Chronicle, and The Statesman. This is an opinion piece. All views expressed are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)

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Delhi Polls: Caste, Gender, Purvanchal, Punjab On BJP's Mind As It Picks Next CM

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Topics: Delhi BJP Delhi CM AAP Arvind Kejriwal