Bihar’s political landscape has long exemplified a fragmented party system. Historically, the state witnessed a proliferation of regional parties—each representing distinct caste, community, or ideological interests—coexisting with national political actors.
This multiplicity rendered elections highly unpredictable, characterised by shifting alliances and the frequent emergence of new political forces. However, in recent electoral cycles, this fragmentation has gradually consolidated into two dominant coalitions: the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the Mahagathbandhan (MGB). This transformation has fundamentally reshaped the nature of political competition and representation in the state.
As Bihar approaches the 2025 Assembly elections, the emergence of new political entrants raises a critical question: will these parties carve out significant space in the electoral contest, or will they meet the fate of previous short-lived formations that failed to sustain themselves beyond a single election?
From Fragmentation to Two-Bloc Dominance
For decades, Bihar’s Assembly elections were characterised by a vibrant mix of regional parties—such as the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Janata Dal (United) [JD(U)], Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), and Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM)—alongside national parties like the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Indian National Congress (INC).
Deep-rooted caste divisions and regional identities fostered the rise of these parties, each mobilising distinct social bases. The result was a highly competitive multi-party system, often requiring post-poll coalitions for government formation.
The Effective Number of Parties (ENP)—which accounts for both the number and strength of parties—reflected the pluralistic character of Bihar’s electoral landscape (see Graph 1). Since the 2010 Assembly elections, however, Bihar’s party system has undergone a marked transformation.
Most major regional parties have aligned themselves with one of two principal coalitions: the NDA, led by the BJP and JD(U), often supported by smaller allies such as the Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) and HAM; and the Mahagathbandhan (MGB), dominated by the RJD and Congress, with support from leftist parties and other regional actors.
This strategic consolidation has led to a noticeable decline in the ENP. While numerous parties continue to contest elections, the two dominant alliances now command the bulk of votes and seats, significantly narrowing the scope for effective competition from outside forces.
Why Did Fragmentation Give Way to Coalition Contests?
Several factors contributed to this shift from fragmentation to coalition politics. First, Bihar’s first-past-the-post electoral system structurally favors broad-based alliances. Pre-poll coalitions are electorally advantageous as they help avoid vote splitting—particularly salient with the BJP’s ascendance and the RJD’s consolidation of the Yadav-Muslim vote bank.
Second, political parties have increasingly pooled their caste-based support to enhance winnability. In a state as socially stratified as Bihar, alliances have become a strategic imperative for caste realignment and electoral survival.
Third, smaller parties, faced with consistent marginalisation when contesting independently, have opted to ally with larger entities to maintain electoral relevance. This "survival instinct" has further reinforced the bipolarity of electoral competition.
The Dilemma: Is There Room for a Third or Fourth Force?
Despite the dominance of the two principal alliances, the possibility of a third or fourth force disrupting the status quo remains. The 2020 Bihar Assembly elections offered mixed signals. The AIMIM won five seats in the Seemanchal region, underscoring the potential for localised, issue-based mobilisation among minority voters.
More recently, Jan Suraaj—led by political strategist Prashant Kishor—garnered attention in the 2024 Bihar bypolls. While it did not win any seats, its candidate in Imamganj secured 22 percent of the total vote, indicating some electoral traction. In other constituencies, however, its performance remained modest: around 10 percent in Belaganj and below that elsewhere.
Third-party success appears feasible under specific conditions. The Seemanchal region, with its high minority population and distinct socio-political context, has proven receptive to alternatives like AIMIM. Additionally, constituencies with narrow victory margins provide strategic opportunities for new players to emerge as serious contenders.
For instance, in the 2020 Bihar Assembly elections, 215 of winning candidates secured less than 50 percent of the total vote—indicative of widespread vote fragmentation. Furthermore, 52 seats were won by margins of less than 5,000 votes, 32 seats had victory margins between 5,001 and 10,000 votes, 76 seats saw margins between 10,001 and 20,000 votes, and 83 seats recorded victory margins above 20,000 votes.
In 23 constituencies, the third-place candidate secured over 20 percent of the vote share. For example, in Ramgarh, Ashok Kumar Singh of the BJP finished third yet secured 30 percent of the vote, reflecting high electoral volatility.
An analysis of constituency-level data from the 2020 Bihar Assembly elections reveals an intriguing pattern: the closer the contest, the more fragmented the competition. A statistical regression across over 240 constituencies shows that those with lower margins of victory tend to have higher ENP—indicating that even in tightly contested races, multiple candidates often receive significant vote shares. This suggests that Bihar’s elections are more crowded and competitive where the race is tight, with more parties splitting the vote.
While this relationship is statistically significant, its magnitude is modest. Other variables—such as caste equations, local alliances, and incumbency—also shape the competitiveness of electoral contests. Nevertheless, this insight helps us better understand voter behaviour in Bihar’s complex electoral ecosystem, where even marginal contenders can shape outcomes in critical constituencies.
Converting Sporadic, Regional Successes
Moreover, urban constituencies with a high proportion of youth and first-time voters may be more open to reformist or anti-establishment narratives. However, these voter segments remain fragmented, and converting dissatisfaction into electoral gains requires credibility, organisational strength, and long-term engagement.
Bihar’s evolution from a fragmented multi-party system to a tightly contested two-coalition framework has streamlined electoral competition and governance. Yet, this consolidation has not entirely foreclosed the possibility of new political alternatives.
Localised grievances, caste dynamics, youth discontent in urban areas, and narrow victory margins continue to provide limited but significant entry points for third or fourth forces. The challenge lies in converting sporadic, regional successes into a cohesive, statewide presence capable of disrupting the entrenched alliance-based order.
While the current political structure appears bipolar, Bihar’s electoral history—and the volatility of its voters—reminds us that the political space remains fluid. For new entrants, the key to survival lies in strategic clarity, sustained grassroots engagement, and a nuanced understanding of caste-community dynamics and regional aspirations.
(The author is Assistant Professor at Amity University, Mohali, Punjab, and earlier worked with Lokniti-CSDS, Delhi. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)