Maharashtra Governor and nominee of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), CP Radhakrishnan, won the Vice President of India election on 9 September, comfortably beating Opposition candidate B Sudershan Reddy. With three regional outfits abstaining, the Vice President of India election was more than electing the next Chairman of the Rajya Sabha. The outcome contains clues to the emerging contours of national politics in the near future.
Radhakrishnan bagged 452 votes against the 300 polled by his rival. The NDA’s strength in the electoral college is 427. Thus, Radhakrishnan gained from a significant cross-voting from the Opposition camps.
At the conclusion of the voting, Congress communication department chief Jairam Ramesh claimed that “all 315 MPs voted” for Reddy. But the Opposition candidate polled 15 votes less than the number claimed by Ramesh. The electoral college made of the MPs of the Lok Sabha and the Rajya Sabha has a strength of 788, which included 12 nominated Parliamentarians.
No Mid-Term Lok Sabha Polls
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) assessed that the outcome of the Vice President of India election will not just be a message for the upcoming Bihar Assembly polls but also spotlight the stability question of the Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led coalition government at the Centre.
The Opposition show of strength in Bihar during the yatra of leader of the Opposition Rahul Gandhi has been seen as a message by the Congress that if the BJP-led NDA is defeated in the state, then the probability for mid-term Lok Sabha elections will brighten. This has been the reading within the BJP camp on the Opposition show in Bihar.
Seizing the challenge, Modi took charge of a meeting of the NDA MPs ahead of the polling for the VP election. While the message was sent that the meeting imparted instructions to the MPs to mainstream swadeshi (vocal for local) in the face of the US tariffs on Indian goods, the BJP was, in fact, working out a strategy for the VP elections.
Senior ministers were assigned to look after groups of MPs during the polling. The strategy was to ensure no cross-voting from the NDA camp, while trying to influence Opposition MPs.
BJP Holds Coalition Command
With 240 Lok Sabha MPs, the BJP-led government at the Centre leans on Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and the Janata Dal (United) for stability. Biju Janata Dal (BJD), Bharath Rashtra Samithi (BRS), and the Akali Dal abstained from the Vice President of India election. Their abstentions clearly favour the BJP.
Even though the three outfits don’t have too many MPs in the Lok Sabha, they, by abstaining, gave enough clues that the BJP can count on them as buffer. The support of the YSR Congress is a morale booster for the BJP’s coalition management challenges.
By demonstrating cross-voting in favour of the NDA nominee, the BJP sent a clear message: Opposition unity still remains vulnerable to its efforts to create chinks in their armour.
While the voting in the Vice President of India election is kept secret, the BJP camp was hopeful for potential crossovers from a regional outfit from Maharashtra. This aligns with the BJP’s efforts to broad base its alliance in the state, where the party has been kept guessing by Eknath Shinde of the Shiv Sena.
The Akali Dal, by not taking part in the election, also gave credence to speculations of the party being in talks with the BJP for an alliance in Punjab.
Control of Both Houses
After a close scrutiny of incumbent Governors, the Prime Minister had zeroed in on Radhakrishnan, who has a background of being a BJP worker that climbed the ladder from the bottom.
Unlike his predecessor, Jagdeep Dhankhar, who had spent years in Janata Dal and the Congress, Radhakrishnan sports bright saffron hues. The BJP will be hopeful that Radhakrishnan will be considerate of the government’s agenda in the Rajya Sabha.
With Radhakrishnan in the Chair in the Rajya Sabha, the BJP will be hopeful for a Lok Sabha-like conduct of the business of the upper house of Parliament as well.
This will bring relief to the BJP amid assessment in the saffron camp that bitter, stormy Parliament days are in store ahead, in the backdrop of a series of Assembly elections in the next three years before the 2029 general elections.
Who Will be Next BJP President?
The win also indicates that the Prime Minister has seemingly asserted his position within the BJP-RSS dynamic.
By picking a hardcore BJP worker for the second highest Constitutional post, the Prime Minister has sent out a message that he would continue to reward party workers in line with the BJP’s pitch for 33 percent fresh faces in each election.
Rallying the morale of the BJP workers is incumbent upon the BJP amid apparent powerplay with the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) even while there are signs of adjustment as revealed in Mohan Bhagwat's speeches. The chief of the saffron outfit recently clarified that there exists no age limit for holding posts.
With Radhakrishnan elected to the second highest Constitutional post, the 'South question' in the election for the next BJP president may rest.
With President Droupadi Murmu from a Scheduled Tribe background, and the Vice President and the Prime Minister hailing from Other Backward Castes (OBC), insiders in the BJP argue that the next party president could be from the saffron catchment areas, as well as from the general or 'upper' caste. Notably, incumbent BJP president JP Nadda is a caste Brahmin.
With the Vice President of India election now over, the BJP may wait for the ongoing pitripaksha to get over to set the election of the next party president in motion. The caveat will however be the Bihar Assembly polls. The party may still wait for the state polls to get over to choose the next party president.
(The author is a senior Delhi-based journalist, with over two decades of tracking politics and parliament for several publications. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed are the author's own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)