He came, he saw, he spoke, but any conquer is improbable. The two-day recent visit of Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba to India on 28-29 March was certainly significant.
He is the first high-ranking Ukrainian official to visit Delhi since Russia began what it calls "special military operations" in Ukraine in February 2022.
The visit, on an invitation by External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar, also comes at a time of heightened tensions between Russia and the West following the Crocus City Hall terror attacks near Moscow which has killed at least 140 and injured many more.
Kuleba’s main objective was to solicit India’s support for Ukraine's peace plan and an upcoming peace conference in Switzerland, dates for which have yet to be announced. He has also pitched for Indian investment in Ukraine and the resumption of trade ties.
"In New Delhi, I had sincere and comprehensive talks with @DrSJaishankar about Ukrainian-Indian bilateral relations, the situation in our regions, and global security," he wrote on X. "We paid specific attention to the Peace Formula and next steps on the path of its implementation. We also co-chaired the Ukrainian-Indian intergovernmental commission review meeting and agreed to restore the level of cooperation between our countries that existed prior to the full-scale war launched by Russia, as well as identify new promising projects to take our relations to the next level."
Will Kuleba’s Comments Affect India-Russia Ties?
While India is trying to balance its proximity with Russia vis-a-vis its Ukraine outreach, it remains to be seen how successful Kuleba’s visit turns out to be. Trade and investments are sure to get back on track for both sides.
"Pleased to co-chair the review meeting of our Inter-Governmental Commission with FM @DmytroKuleba of Ukraine," Jaishankar wrote on his X account.
"Noted the importance of further strengthening cooperation in all domains. Our immediate goal is to get trade back to earlier levels. Perspectives on trade, health, S&T and agriculture cooperation shared today were useful. We agreed to prepare for the 7th IGC meeting later this year."
However, this will not help to wean India away from its longtime pal Russia.
In an interview with the Financial Times, the minister was quoted as saying: "The cooperation between India and Russia is largely based on the Soviet legacy. But this is not the legacy that will be kept for centuries; it is a legacy that is evaporating.”
While it is understandable why Kuleba said so, it is a limited reading of the India-Russia partnership.
What Comprises Ukraine’s Peace Plan?
Russia remains India's largest defence supplier till now and possibly its most trusted friend in the United Nations Security Council. Apart from cooperation in myriad fields – from nuclear technology to space; thanks to discounted Russian crude oil, trade volumes have this past year reached unprecedented levels between both countries.
The Minister's other warning – that close Sino-Russian relations constitute a threat to India – is precisely another reason why India seeks to maintain close ties with Russia. But beyond this, will the visit achieve its other objective – primarily support for Ukraine’s 'peace formula'?
First, let us see what constitutes the peace formula.
In October 2022, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced a “peace formula” to the G7 leaders. These are: radiation and nuclear safety, including Russian withdrawal from the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant, food security, energy security, release of prisoners and deportees, restoration of Ukraine's territorial integrity and 1991 borders, cessation of hostilities and the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukrainian territory, justice and trial for war crimes, protection of the environment, prevention of conflict escalation, and the confirmation on the end of war.
While points on food security and the release of prisoners and deportees are well taken, the stumbling bloc in this proposal is the restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity.
Whatever hope may be pinned to the lands occupied by Russian forces post-February 2022, it is hard to envisage Crimea being returned to Ukraine. The region seems to have been seamlessly integrated into the Russian Federation over the decade when Russia incorporated it within its territory in 2014.
Moreover, given Russia's military upper hand in the conflict and an increasingly weakening Ukraine entirely dependent on foreign arms, it is difficult to envisage even the Donbas region reverting to Ukraine.
Clauses like the cessation of hostilities and non-escalation of the conflict will require Russian participation in negotiations in equal measure though Russia has not been invited yet to the planned conference.
How Ukrainian Legislature Complicates Matters
In an interview with Russian media outlet Izvestia on 28 March – the day Kuleba landed in Delhi - Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov called the peace formula 'diplomatically insane'.
What complicates such peace plans further is the October 2022 Ukrainian decree banning any talks with Russia under the presidency of Vladimir Putin.
Given the recent landslide victory of Putin at Russia's presidential polls and his re-election, this decree remains a non-starter for peace talks.
In the same interview, Lavrov said, "A few words about Zelensky’s executive order on a ban of talks with the Government of Vladimir Putin. Our President has repeatedly spoken about our readiness to start serious talks. But to become convinced that these will be serious talks (or at least there is hope for this), he told Kyiv’s Western patrons that Zelensky must first cancel this executive order."
India will be mindful of these nuances and Russian sensibilities and may seek to persuade Ukraine along these lines.
What Must Be India’s Plan of Action?
India should, however, attend the peace conference in Switzerland, if and when it occurs. It has always proclaimed its neutrality in this conflict, and time and again, called for dialogue and discussions as the only way forward. It has coordinated the "grains deal" earlier brokered by Turkey and on occasions, also played the "messenger" between sides, as S Jaishankar recently said at an event in Malaysia, and even played a role in averting any possible nuclear strikes by Russia on Ukrainian facilities.
India has attended all international talks on Ukraine, beginning from the one in Copenhagen to the one in Jeddah, Malta, and more recently Davos.
It will give India a window to both Ukraine and the West and position it as a more neutral enabler of conflict resolution if the opportunity arises.
(Aditi Bhaduri is a journalist and political analyst. She tweets @aditijan. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed are the author's own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)
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