[Editor's note: According to multiple reports, the Pakistani Air Force on Thursday morning launched airstrikes on alleged Baloch separatist camps situated in Iran.]
Iran and Pakistan have not exactly been the best of friends for a very long time. However, they have not been sworn enemies either. This very complex posturing has defined their relationship since the Islamic Revolution in Iran in 1979. But earlier this week, this very delicate balance was disturbed like never before.
The region of Baluchistan is split between Iran and Pakistan and had remained largely porous before the security-minded world post 9/11. A low-grade insurgency is active in both the countries with the restive Baloch fighting against their respective central governments. However, the nature of the resentment is different in both countries.
In the case of Pakistan, it is a matter of sub-nationalism. In the case of Iran, an additional factor of Sunni sectarianism is added to the existing factor of sub-nationalism. The insurgency has turned deadly in both countries.
While the Baluchistan Liberation Army (BLA) and allied groups have mounted several attacks against Pakistani and Chinese interests on this side of the border, groups like Jundallah, and later Jaish ul Adl, have created havoc among the ranks and files of Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and local police on the other side. In ways more than one, they are a common menace.
Therefore, the trans-border attack by Iran inside the Baluchistan Province of Pakistan has shocked the mandarins in Islamabad out of their wits. While Iran has been threatening unilateral action against Pakistan-based groups for several years now, no one thought that it would deliver on its threat.
Pakistan has also been threatening Iran to rein in Baloch groups operating from its soil in an almost tit-for-tat manner. However, till yesterday, both sides had respected each other’s sovereignties. It is therefore no surprise that when this correspondent tried to get a feel of the mood in Islamabad from his sources, the common refrain was the term “betrayal.”
From Jundallah to Jaish ul Adal
While the rancour vis-à-vis Jaish ul Adl has increased since 2018-2019, the blame game between the two neighbours is not new. After the United States invaded Afghanistan, Iran saw a sudden rise in deadly attacks by Baloch insurgents in its Sistan o Baluchestan province and other adjoining ones. The primarily active group then was Jundallah, which had a base inside Pakistan’s Baluchistan and the blessings of the Americans who were, at the time, operating at whim inside Pakistan.
As the attacks got deadlier, Iran started exerting pressure on Islamabad to rein in the terror group. The latter expressed helplessness. Iran caught a lucky break when it managed to capture and execute Jundallah’s head, Abdolmalek Rigi, in 2010.
It was said then that the intelligence for the same was provided by Pakistan. Then, the Raymond Davis fiasco happened in Pakistan where the aforementioned CIA (Central Intelligence Agency) agent shot and killed at least two Pakistani intelligence operatives. The fallout that followed saw Pakistan kicking out Jundallah from its soil, but it found sanctuary around an American base in Afghanistan. However, the group quickly collapsed, as operating from inside the western region of Afghanistan where locals had massive pro-Iran sentiments, proved to be difficult.
However, shortly after, some of the members from Jundallah established another group and named it Jaish ul Adal. While this group did a few shock-and-awe operations in its early days, it did not manage to rattle Iran in any meaningful way. Many of its leaders were either killed by Iran or were arrested by Pakistan and handed over to the former for execution. In one instance, one of its leaders was killed by the Afghanistan Taliban based on intelligence provided by Iran.
However, the group has become more brazen in its attacks in the last few years and has ripped through the Iranian security apparatus, especially in and around the city of Saravan. Several high-ranking officers from the Iran Army as well as IRGC have been killed in the last two years. Last year, Baloch militants tried to capture the city of Zahedan during the bloody unrest following the death of Mahsa Amini.
While the attempt was thwarted, it led to a massive loss of men and material. This rattled Tehran to no end and it started putting additional pressure on Pakistan. And while Pakistan has time and again arrested or even killed some of Jaish ul Adal's leaders inside its border, the terrain makes it difficult to check their movement completely.
Neither Iran Nor Pakistan Shall Want to Open a New Front
Pakistan also has a litany of complaints against Iran. For starters, it claims that the BLA and allied groups operate from Iranian soil and often escape to Iran after mounting attacks inside Pakistan. It has also maintained for a very long time that Iranian intelligence has been hobnobbing with their Indian counterparts in fomenting unrest inside Baluchistan. Drug cartel members and common criminals possessing passports from both countries are often apprehended in each other’s territories. This further adds to the mistrust.
There is more. Pakistan is also peeved that several of its citizens were recruited by Iran to fight inside Syria. During the Syrian Civil War, the IRGC raised and trained militias drawn from the Shia population from Afghanistan and Pakistan, namely the Liwa Fatemiyoun and the Liwa Zainebiyoun respectively.
Liwa Zainebiyoun, whose fighters this correspondent covered fighting against Islamic State in the region of Palmyra in Syria several years ago, was drawn from the Shia-majority Parchinar region of Northern Pakistan. Several Punjabi and Urdu speaker Shias from Lahore and Karachi were also part of it in smaller numbers. When their fighters came back to Pakistan after defeating the Islamic State, the spooks picked many of them for questioning and kept them inside dungeons. Islamabad was understandably freaked about the presence of trained and war-tempered fighters with pro-Iran allegiance among its citizenry. It protested strongly but Iran swept the matter aside.
And while that grievance was mostly dealt with at the diplomatic level, Iran's attack two days ago is being seen by Islamabad as a flagrant violation of territorial sovereignty. There is certainly going to be a response. And while ambassadors have been recalled and demarches have been sent, the military aspect of it is also a matter of when and not if. What the nature of that response would be is, for now, anyone's guess.
If Pakistan retaliates by hitting the bases of the IRGC, then a proper conflict will flare up. Neither Iran—which is neck-deep involved in propping the resistance axis against Israel—nor Pakistan—which is neck-deep in an economic crisis—shall want to open a new front. What Pakistan can do is target bases and hideouts of the BLA and allied insurgent groups inside Iran based on intelligence input. A tit-for-tat situation like this will not only provide both parties with a de-escalation ladder but also offer them a face-saving opportunity. But will they take it?
(Saurabh Kumar Shahi is a journalist specialising in West and South Asian Affairs with a special interest in the inter-religious and intra-Islamic conflict in the region. This is an opinion piece. The views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)
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