As the Opposition gears up to mount a united attack on the Narendra Modi regime, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is successfully executing a counter strategy to launch a revised and enlarged edition of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA).
As part of 'Mission 400', the saffron brigade is roping in all its estranged allies and even inducting new partners. Close on the heels of Nitish Kumar's U-turn, it is now the turn of Chandrababu Naidu to rejoin the NDA.
The TDP and its ally Jana Sena Party (JSP) have also arrived at a seat-sharing agreement, byt giving six seats (out of 25 seats) to the BJP in the Lok Sabha elections and 10 seats (out of 175 seats) in the Assembly polls.
The Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) and Biju Janata Dal (BJD) are also reportedly set to rejoin the NDA. The SAD left the NDA in protest against the controversial farm laws enacted by the Modi dispensation. The BJD disassociated with the BJP owing to differences over seat-sharing with the saffron party in the run-up to the 2009 elections.
The Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) has also joined the NDA, further bolstering the BJP's prospects in the largest Indian state of Uttar Pradesh that sends 80 members to the Lok Sabha.
TDP Cadre Baffled by Naidu's U-Turn
The Naidu-led TDP has had the dubious distinction of entering and exiting the NDA for the reasons best known to itself. Irritated by the whimsical stand of the TDP, BJP veteran Amit Shah had said during the 2019 election campaign that the doors of the saffron brigade are permanently closed to Naidu.
In fact, the Modi-led NDA regime at the Centre enjoyed cordial relations with the YS Jagan Mohan Reddy-led state government. The Andhra Pradesh finance minister, in his recent budget speech, acknowledged this aspect. The TDP was, in fact, accusing the BJP of protecting the Jagan regime. The TDP cadre are, therefore, unable to digest Naidu's decision to go with the BJP.
The TDP rank and file believe that Jagan would not have dared to imprison Naidu and play with the fate of Amaravati, the greenfield capital of the state, without the tacit support of the Modi regime.
The central government was also believed to be liberal towards the YSR Congress government, helping Jagan to raise loans indiscriminately to fund his welfare agenda.
Not just the political observers, even the TDP leaders – barring the high command – are unable to comprehend the benefits that will accrue to the TDP-Jana Sena coalition by allying with the BJP, which polled fewer votes than NOTA in the 2019 elections. A party that has less than one percent votes cannot, in any way, add value to the coalition.
Besides, the BJP still incurs the wrath of the people of Andhra Pradesh for a host of reasons. The BJP was a party to the Congress-authored bifurcation of the state, much to the chagrin of the people of this region.
The Modi regime reneged on the implementation of provisions of the Bifurcation Act in all earnest and miserably retreated on the much-coveted promise of according the Special Category Status to the fiscally beleaguered state post bifurcation.
In fact, Naidu broke away from the NDA prior to 2019 elections precisely raising these same issues, especially the Special Status. The Modi regime strictly held that it cannot accord Special Status to Andhra Pradesh.
But Naidu, in a clear political somersault which has now became the characteristic of his political persona, decided to rejoin the NDA without any plausible pro-people reasons. Neither Naidu nor Pawan Kalyan are believed to have put forth any conditions for forging an alliance, nor has the BJP promised anything.
Meanwhile, not just showing remarkable alacrity in forging an electoral alliance with the BJP, Naidu agreed for a share of Lok Sabha seats disproportionate to the strength of the saffron party in Andhra Pradesh.
Within the TDP political circles, there is a fear possible loss of minority votes due to the party joining the BJP bandwagon. There is also a palpable concern among the TDP cadre that the visible anger against the BJP among the voters for reneging on Special Status and a host of other promises may cost the coalition electorally.
Coalition With Naidu, Cordial Ties With Jagan: What is BJP's Play?
Perhaps, the only consolation in this regard is that the minority voters hostile to BJP are already with the YSR Congress. Jagan is also not ready to mount any significant fight against the BJP for his own reasons. Reddy faces a number of CBI and ED cases. This is precisely the reason why the YSR Congress, which moved a no-confidence motion against the Modi government prior to 2019, has been supporting the saffron government in Delhi.
The YSR congress proved to be a trusted 'non-NDA ally', though it publicly proclaimed the theory of equidistance from both the ruling and Opposition coalitions in national politics. Hence, Jagan is most unlikely to take on the Modi-led BJP over the perceived injustice to Andhra Pradesh. The YSR Congress will confine itself to attacking Naidu for allying with the BJP.
Interestingly enough, a big section of the state BJP is also averse to the idea of joining hands with the TDP. Naidu displayed political pusillanimity in forging electoral alliances and is therefore an unreliable ally, argues a section opposed to the alliance. These BJP leaders remind the history of BJP getting marginalised due to electoral alliances. Most BJP leaders who got key positions due to an alliance with the TDP defected later.
Thus, a section of BJP firmly believes that the polarisation of state politics between two regional parties will squeeze the space for national parties like the BJP. The BJP wanted to forge a third force in state politics in alliance with Pawan Kalyan in order to benefit from the weakening of any of the regional parties post elections. But Kalyan refused to buy into this idea and unilaterally decided to sail with the TDP even if it amounted to severing ties with the BJP.
Kalyan's immediate objective was to ensure a sizable presence for his Jana Sena in the state legislature rather than playing a long-term match. Thus, the BJP high command was compelled to join the Opposition coalition to make its presence felt in Andhra political terrain.
The section opposed to joining the TDP led coalition argues that the saffron party would benefit in the long run by projecting a Kapu leader as the Chief Minister of the state dominated by Kamma and Reddy politics. In fact, BJP leaders also held parleys with the leader of Kapu movement Mudragada Padmanabham.
Thus, the TDP and BJP came together despite lack of unanimity within the two parties. Naidu displayed a political obsession to join team Modi, hoping to benefit in executing poll management. Naidu also believes that he can fight Jagan effectively with the support of Modi. The YSR Congress, however, accuses Naidu of forging this alliance due to fear of cases from central agencies.
While the BJP joined the Naidu-led coalition in the state despite cordial relations with Jagan, it hopes that such a political duplicity – however ludicrous it may be – will help it to retain the support of all the 25 MPs the state elections. The BJP is, in fact, enjoying such a support despite not having a single MP of its own from Andhra Pradesh.
Nevertheless, in the process, the interests of people of Andhra Pradesh are sacrificed at the altar of political expediency and electoral opportunism of warring political parties.
(At The Quint, we are answerable only to our audience. Play an active role in shaping our journalism by becoming a member. Because the truth is worth it.)