Modi’s Visit to Lanka: Avoid One Step Forward and Two Steps Back

It is often said rather derogatorily that Sinhalese who account for nearly 70 percent of Sri Lanka’s population is a majority with a minority complex. Their existential anxieties are born out of their proximity to the southern Indian state of Tamil Nadu, and were aggravated by India’s association with the initial phase of Tamil separatist militancy in the island.Last week, by visiting Colombo to grace Vesak festivities, and paying homage to the Temple of Tooth in Kandy and inviting high priests of the two main Buddhist chapters to visit India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi might have assuaged some of those insecurities.The goodwill generated by his visit is consequential, not just for ethnic peace in the island nation, but also for the betterment of bilateral relations with India, for those anxieties themselves contributed to Sri Lanka’s tilt towards China in recent times.India’s Economic EmbraceMr Modi’s visit, though touted as a ‘religious’ assignment should be viewed in the context of the proposed bilateral development and trade cooperation, as stipulated in the Memorandum of Understanding which Sri Lanka and India signed last month.Among the projects agreed upon in the MoU were the development of an oil tank farm near the strategically important Trincomalee harbour, a 500 MW LNG power plant, an LNG terminal in Colombo, a 50 MW solar power plant in Sampur and a port, petroleum refinery and other industries in Trincomalee.Those projects for which a timeline has also been stipulated would significantly increase India’s economic presence in Sri Lanka and will also help it counterbalance looming Chinese influence in the country.Also an India-Sri Lanka Economic and Technology Cooperation Agreement (ETCA) which is currently under negotiation would further promote bilateral economic cooperation.Also Read: Sri Lanka Workers Protest Against Proposed Oil Deal With IndiaTackling Anti-India SentimentIn Sri Lanka’s chaotic domestic politics, any development project is controversial, more so those involving India for the fear of being swamped by Indian workers and goods. However, Modi’s public diplomacy should help dampen some of that anti-India opposition.India’s interest in those development projects should infuse a sense of urgency in Sri Lanka’s State apparatus which has a knack of sitting on project proposals.Modi’s visit, thus, offers potential for India to reclaim a degree of leverage that it lost to China due to New Delhi’s own hands-off policy towards Sri Lanka during the island nation’s troubled times.China’s Influence Won’t Wither AwayHowever, India would not be the only influential partner for Sri Lanka in the future. The Chinese presence would not wither away, instead it would further deepen as the Chinese-built Colombo port city, Hambantota Port and the proposed industrial zone come into operation.Last week, barely hours after Modi’s departure, his Sri Lankan host Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe flew to Beijing to participate in the One Belt One Road (OBOR) summit, which India boycotted citing sovereignty concerns over Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir.In Beijing, Wickremesinghe addressing a high level forum said that One Belt One Road initiative would help Sri Lanka become a hub in the Indian Ocean and called upon all member states to strive towards its success. He is also expected to sign a ‘Framework Agreement’ with China, akin to the MoUs Sri Lanka earlier inked with India and Japan on a broader set of development projects to be undertaken during the period from 2017 to 2022.The Chinese themselves have submitted the Colombo government a framework agreement which has listed 18 “Priority Projects”, including the operation of Hambantota Port, shipyard at Hambantota Port, operation of dock and rear oil tank area at Hambantota Port, Hambantota Port Industrial Park, Colombo International Financial City (Port City) and a number of road and water projects.Balancing ActThe current administration since assuming power two years back, has strived to diversify Sri Lanka’s foreign relations in order to lessen its economic and diplomatic dependence on China. It is currently engaged in a delicate balancing act between India and China.Unlike its predecessor, it is acutely concerned about Indian sensitivities. Last week, it denied a Chinese request to dock a submarine in the Colombo port. Earlier it abandoned plans to buy Chinese JF 17 fighter jets, after India raised concerns. The construction of the Colombo port city itself was once suspended and the agreement was renegotiated to address India’s concerns.India Needs to Take InitiativeAt the same time, Sri Lanka is so desperate for foreign investments that it cannot abandon China at the expense of its prosperity. The Sri Lankan strategy to assuage India’s concerns has been pro-actively co-opting India in the island nation’s development activity. It was those concerns, other than obvious monetary benefits, that led Colombo to offer the development of Trincomalee port to India.Indian response has been less than encouraging. It would be in India’s geostrategic interest as well to enhance its economic presence in Sri Lanka. It is instructive to note that Hambantota port itself was offered to India, which it declined and China stepped in.Also Read: Sri Lanka Backs India’s Stand on China-Pak Economic Corridor(The writer is a Sri Lankan journalist. He can be reached @RangaJayasuriya. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)

BECOME A MEMBER

Modi’s Visit to Lanka: Avoid One Step Forward and Two Steps Back

Economic ties with Sri Lanka is in India’s interest to counter China’s hegemony, writes Ranga Jayasuriya.

Read Latest News and Breaking News at The Quint, browse for more from opinion

Topics: Narendra Modi Maithripala Sirisena Ranil Wickremesinghe