On 25 November, Karnataka Deputy Chief Minister DK Shivakumar visited the All India Congress Committee (AICC) president Mallikarjun M Kharge's upscale Sadashiva Nagar residence in Bengaluru and got into the his car, just as the latter was leaving for the airport to catch a flight to New Delhi. The prescient timing of the move was interpreted as another gambit by the Deputy CM for the Chief Minister's (CM) chair.
Kharge had camped for three days in Bengaluru, meeting CM Siddaramaiah, ministers and party legislators on the power tussle for the CM's post, but Shivakumar, who lives just a lane away, chose the 30 km drive to the airport to voice his demand.
Power Sharing or Power Grab?
With the political drama over the confidential understanding of "rotational chief minister for 2.5 years'' (purportedly agreed upon after the Congress won the Assembly elections in 2023) reaching a crescendo, the Congress High Command has seemingly decided to resolve the leadership issue.
Kharge told the media that he will call a meeting of senior Congress leaders, including Rahul Gandhi, Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar to douse the confusion. "Whatever medicine needs to be given will be given accordingly,'' he added.
As a first step, the Congress high command directed Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar to meet over breakfast on Saturday, 29 November, to work out a formula before they are called to New Delhi for talks.
After the breakfast meeting, however, both Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar addressed a joint press conference, stating that no leadership issue was discussed, and that they talked about evolving the strategy for the next Assembly polls in 2028. ''We will abide by whatever the high command says," they added.
The breakfast meeting, Congress sources state, is a temporary truce as the Parliament session commences from tomorrow and the Karnataka legislature meets from 8 December.
There were murmurs about the supposed power-sharing formula when Siddaramaiah formed the government on 20 May 2023. However, Shivakumar's camp escalted its pitch to claim the CM's post after the Congress government completed the halfway mark of its tenure on 20 November 2025.
Siddaramaiah's camp, which includes senior ministers HC Mahadevappa, G Parameshwara, KJ George, Satish Jarkiholi, BZ Zameer Ahmed Khan and Santosh Lad, have publicly stated that Siddaramaiah will complete the full term, adding the final decision vests with the party high command.
However, Information and Biotechnology minister Priyank Kharge, who is Mallikarjun Kharge's son, countered Siddaramaiah's supporters, asserting that Siddaramaiah's removal will pose no threat to the Congress' existence.
“The party does not stand because of any one person. Wasn’t there Congress before Siddaramaiah (he joined Congress in 2006)? Siddaramaiah left an impression on all the communities in the state. Was it not the Congress party that made Siddaramaiah the CM? Mallikarjun Kharge, Siddaramaiah, Shivakumar, Parameshwara, Satish Jarkiholi... all were raised by the workers."
Shivakumar's camp insists that he was assured of power transfer after the Congress government completes 2.5 years. "It is a secret deal between five to six persons of us, which I cannot divulge,'' Shivakumar told the media on 25 November.
'Secret Deal' and Caste Conundrum
A senior Congress leader close to Shivakumar told The Quint that Kharge reportedly assured the Deputy CM that he will try to convince party leader Rahul Gandhi to abide by the "secret deal."
"The Congress tradition is, if the party comes to power, the state unit president by default becomes the CM. In 2023, the elections were fought under the leadership of Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar and it was decided that Siddaramaiah should get the first chance because of his age. Shivakumar has slogged for the party, went to jail for the sake of the party and declined offers of CM and DyCM posts from the BJP. Congress leader Sonia Gandhi visited him in the jail and assured to take care of his political interests. The promise should be honoured now not because there is a demand from his Vokkaliga community but for the loyalty and hard work".Senior Congress Leader
But will the Congress high command disturb Siddaramaiah? It was he who built the Ahinda (Kannada acronym for minorities, backward classes and Dalits) movement after Rahul Gandhi expressed regret over "failing to understand" the plight of the Other Backward Classes (OBC), promising to "rectify" it.
A close aide of Shivakumar said, "Let the Congress declare an OBC as the prime minister candidate for 2029 Lok Sabha polls".
The leader added, "Merit is the yardstick not community in the present circumstances. The Congress does not have the luxury of ruling over 31 states any more, we have only three states and Siddaramaiah has launched welfare programmes for the OBCs.''
Meanwhile, seers and and caste groups have joined the debate too, now.
Adding to the chorus of both camps in the power tussle, a group of Naga sadhus (ascetics) visited Shivakumar's residence and blessed him. The pontiff of the Adichunchanagiri Mutt, Nirmalanandanatha Swamiji, who represents the Vokkaliga community, expressed his unhappiness over the delay in making Shivakumar the CM.
The Karnataka Vokkaligara Sangha president, L Srinivas, maintained that his community supported the Congress in the 2023 polls only because Shivakumar stood the chance of becoming the CM. He warned that the Vokkaligas would consider "teaching the party a lesson" if it did not happen.
Meanwhile, many Ahinda organisations under the umbrella of Karnataka State Other Backward Classes Federation said they will not yield to any threats of the Vokkaligara Sangha.
On Friday, poojas were held in Mandya and Mysuru, a Vokkaliga belt in favour of Shivakumar, while in Chikkamagaluru, the same was conducted for the continuance of Siddaramaiah as CM.
A Dalit CM for Karnataka?
Amid the ongoing confusion, various Dalit organisations have renewed their demand for a Scheduled Caste (SC) CM, in case Siddaramaiah is replaced.
Parameshwara, who belongs to the SC community, admitted he is an aspirant, if there is a leadership change, while some Dalit organisations have floated Mallikarjuna Kharge's name. Kharge lost to Siddaramaiah in the CM's race in 2013.
Satish Jarkiholi, representing the Scheduled Tribes (ST) said he will try his luck in the 2028 Assembly polls. In a late night meeting with Shivakumar recently, Jarkiholi is supposed to have declined the deputy chief minister's position in his (Shivakumar's) regime.
Here's what analysts and observers feel may happen.
According to AICC sources even if the high command favours a change of guard, it will not be immediate.
Congress top brass is reportedly divided over the issue with Rahul Gandhi and AICC general secretary (Organisation) KC Venugopal in favour of allowing Siddaramaiah to complete his full term, while Congress leaders Sonia Gandhi, Priyanka Gandhi Vadra and AICC general secretary, Karnataka in-charge Randeep Singh Surjewala open to giving the CM's post to Shivakumar.
Kharge is reported to have told Shivakumar during the ride to the airport that he will try to "convince'' Rahul Gandhi to execute the "secret deal".
There's a likelihood of the high command allowing Siddaramaiah to present his 17th state budget in 2026, and also fulfill his desire to surpass the tenure of former CM D Devaraj Urs by become the longest serving CM of Karnataka. Urs was the CM for seven years across two terms (1972-1977 and 1978-1980). To break Urs' record, Siddaramaiah will have to continue in office till 6 January 2026. He has previously completed one full term of five years from 2013-2018.
Going by his past political history, it will not be an easy task for the Congress high command to ask Siddaramaiah to relinquish office. The party may recall how he rebelled against the Janata Dal (Secular) and the Congress as well after switching over. Shivakumar, on the contrary, is seen as a loyal soldier. His statement on Friday about Sonia Gandhi sacrificing power signals that he is prepared to wait longer if things don't work out in his favour immediately. As a senior AICC member said, "A wounded Siddaramaiah is more dangerous than a rebel Shivakumar.''
(Naheed Ataulla is a senior political journalist based in Bengaluru. This is an opinion piece, and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)