Sheikh Hasina Verdict Puts India on Alert as Dhaka Politics Shifts

The International Criminal Tribunal of Bangladesh on 17 November, passed a death sentence on former Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina for crimes against humanity. The penalty, deemed controversial by critics of the current political dispensation in Bangladesh, holds her solely responsible for the large number of deaths, mostly in police firing, during last year’s student protest.At one level there are no surprises at the outcome of the Tribunal, the groundwork for which was reportedly being laid by Hasina’s rivals and detractors for over a year. Interestingly, the decision of the special court comes amid the growing rise in Pakistan-Bangladesh engagement and regular exchanges of high-level delegations between the two countries, ranging from trade and commerce to politics and defence.The evolving situation in Bangladesh poses a serious challenge for India as it shares a long and porous border with the country and is currently going through a period of strain in bilateral relations with Dhaka.With Sheikh Hasina Convicted, Bangladesh Braces for a New Political OrderThough it may come as consolation or bring a sense of closure to the kin of the hundreds who lost their lives in the insurrection last year, the death verdict and the legal status of the Tribunal have been questioned by a wide section of experts within and outside Bangladesh. The conviction clearly shows the assertion of groups like the Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI), whose influence in Bangladesh has rapidly spread in the past one year. The 1973 International Crimes (Tribunals) Act was amended in 2008, specifically to address charges of crimes of genocide committed during the 1971 Liberation War. The attempt to amend it further in 2024 by an ordinance at a time when Parliament was not in session and without its approval, has raised serious legal questions about its legal validity. The Chief Justice and other judges of the country’s Supreme Court were forced to resign last year by the students who joined the interim administration of Mohd Yunus as advisors.Hasina, the longest serving leader of Bangladesh, was ousted from power in August last year when a student protest on job reservations in government turned violent and snowballed into a people’s insurrection against the Awami League Prime Minister. When a huge mob threateningly approached her residence, she fled on the advice of the army chief who expressed his inability to control the advancing crowd without resorting to heavy firing that could result in a large number of deaths. She took refuge in India and has been in New Delhi since.Most independent observers of Bangladesh acknowledge the democratic backsliding, electoral manipulation, and the stamping out of dissenting voices and marginalisation of dissenters in the country during Hasina’s long rule. But they also credit her with giving political stability to Bangladesh and putting its economy on an impressive growth track.Bangladesh Seeks Sheikh Hasina's Extradition: Pros & Cons for Indian GovtMost observers would agree that she could have handled the student protest better by engaging with them at an early stage before it turned violent and got hijacked by the Jamaat-e-Islami activists. In 2008, the Tribunal tried a number of JeI leaders for genocide during the Liberation War that led to the emergence of Bangladesh from the Eastern Province of Pakistan into an independent country. Jamaat leaders who had opposed the creation of Bangladesh and sided with the Pakistani army, were also involved in large scale atrocities on the hapless people of the land. Many Jamaat leaders were hanged after the trial while others were given long prison sentences. Several other Jamaat leaders took refuge in Pakistan and stayed back there.The manner in which the trial against Hasina was conducted, clearly shows a parallel with what happened in 2008 to Jamaat leaders when she was in power.For the Jamaat, the trial brings to a full circle years of political vendetta against Hasina. For Yunus, who turned into her rival after he expressed his political ambition and was aided by the United States, especially during President Bill Clinton’s administration and subsequently under his wife Hillary Clinton, when she was the US Secretary of State, it looks like political retribution.Yunus, a noted economist and Hasina detractors, faced serious harassment under Hasina’s prime ministership for alleged violation of labour laws and malpractices at the Grameen Bank that he ran. He was relieved of the charges and chosen as the head of the interim administration after Hasina’s ouster.The BNP, the second largest party in the country, has been out of power for decades. It now finds a real chance of forming the next government. But this can be possible only if Hasina is forced out of the electoral race and Bangladesh politics.Early this year, a meeting was held in London between the top Jamaat leaders and the former Prime Minister and chairperson of the BNP, Khaleda Zia, and her son Tarik Rahman at his residence. Ostensibly, it was a courtesy meeting between the two sides to find out about Khaleda Zia’s health. But sources say that the leaders of the two parties also discussed their common enemy, Hasina and how to deal with her in future.The BNP has relied on Jamaat’s muscle power for street protests. In recent months there have been reports of a falling out between the two sides but the fight appears to be superficial. Both sides apparently came to an understanding on their future political arrangement if the BNP wins Bangladesh's next parliamentary election.But despite the hype about their growing support and strength in Bangladesh after Hasina’s ouster, neither the BNP nor the Jamaat seem confident to confront Hasina and her Awami League if they return to the country. The Dhaka regime has thus been strategically seeking her extradition from Delhi, though the government knows that under no circumstances is India likely to extradite Hasina.For India, Hasina was a “dream partner” in a region fraught with anti-Indian sentiments and shifting loyalty. The fast- paced developments in Bangladesh have posed a challenge for New Delhi. Officially, it has played down the situation, stating that it has taken note of the development and will engage with Bangladesh as its priority was to keep the interest of the people of the neighbouring country in mind. It assured that as a close neighbour India will engage constructively with all stakeholders in Bangladesh for its “peace, democracy and stability.”It became clear that India would not like to jeopardise its relations with the current regime in Dhaka at this juncture. The Indian National Security Advisor Ajit Doval met his Bangladesh counterpart Khalilur Rahman a few days after the verdict on Hasina and invited him to participate in a regional maritime security conclave in New Delhi.There seems to be two options before India now. One, it can remain neutral without interfering in developments in Bangladesh and let the February elections take place without Hasina’s Awami League, which is currently banned in Bangladesh. It was accused in the past for extending support to Hasina at the cost of people’s interest in the country and may be interested in doing a course correction. Two, it can use its influence to convince the BNP and others to allow the Awami League to participate in the elections to make it more acceptable to the outside world. India has a lot at stake in Bangladesh. It has invested heavily in Bangladesh and the connectivity projects it undertook with the Hasina government for greater access to its Northeastern region, have now been stalled and needs urgent revival. If the BNP comes to power and the business-friendly leaders convince the leadership to build good relations with India, it can lead to Bangladesh’s progress and development.On the other hand, if the hardliners and sections who are against India and want closer ties with Pakistan get the upper hand, it can be a serious problem for Delhi. A possible new government that is close to the Jamaat and is keen on closer ties with Pakistan with support from both China and the United States, can be a nightmare for India.Even in a worse-case scenario, Hasina ‘s presence in India will also provide the Indian leadership with the option to regain its status in Bangladesh and allow it to take countermeasures if a situation develops in the country that poses a serious threat to India’s strategic interest.However, a lot will depend on how things pan out in India’s neighbourhood in the next few months. Until then, the Indian leadership may have to keep its powder dry.(Pranay Sharma is a commentator on political and foreign policy-related developments for over four decades. He has held senior editorial positions in leading media organisations and now works as an independent writer. This is an opinion piece. The views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)

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