Rajasthan’s ‘Rebels’: Independents Likely to Drive State Election

The nominations for assembly elections in Rajasthan that ended on Monday, 19 November, went down to the wire, as both parties kept going back and forth till the last hour. This resulted in hysteria and frenzy among ticket hopefuls. Party candidate one evening, and rebel by the following evening, was the order of the day.Meet the RebelsMonday ended with 2,212 candidates filing their nominations, but only 23 among them became the talk of town. They rebelled against their party and threw their hats into the contest as independents, thus, spicing up the election. Five ministers and eight MLAs have rebelled within the BJP, whereas four former ministers and six MLAs have rebelled from the Congress.Things started to heat up, as the Congress, while declaring its first list on 15 November, stuck to the guidelines of not giving tickets to those who have lost two consecutive MLA elections and denied a ticket to Brahmin leader and former state minister BD Kalla from Bikaner West, in turn giving Yogesh Gehlot a chance. It also nominated Khaniya Lal Jhawar from Bikaner East after he was included in the party merely hours before the announcement, at the behest of the Leader of Opposition, Rameshwar Dudi.There were violent protests in Bikaner by supporters of Kalla, and the party decided to accommodate him, shifting Gehlot to the West, against an erstwhile royal and BJP MLA Siddhi Kumari, and dropping Jhawar. The move irked Dudi, who publicly announced that if Jhawar is denied a ticket, he too will not contest from his seat Nokha, near Bikaner.Rajasthan Assembly Polls: Will Defiant Raje Be Able to Hold Fort?‘Parachute Politics’In its second list on 17 November, the Congress announced that Manvendra Singh Jasol who had left the BJP, would contest against Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje from Jhalrapatan. The announcement took many by surprise and voice of dissent started emerging in the constituency, as local congressmen cried ‘parachute’. Local Congress leader Shailendra Yadav has been upping the ante against Raje for the last three years, and has been at the receiving end.Other than these, former Union Minister of State Mahadev Singh Khandela and Babulal Nagar, (minister in Gehlot government) have been denied tickets and are now contesting as independents. In the BJP, the first one to rebel was minister Surinder Goyal who has been a five time MLA, but was denied a ticket from Jaitaran in western Rajasthan. Soon he was joined by ministerial colleagues Hemsingh Badhana, Rajkumar Rinwa, Dhansingh Rawat and Omprakash Hudla. Another notable name for BJP is Bhawani singh Rajawat (considered close to CM Raje) being denied a ticket, and motormouth MLA Gyandev Ahuja who has been making headlines during mob lynching incidents in the state.Will ‘Queen’ Raje’s ‘Dynasty Card’ Ensure Her Clout in Rajasthan?Pacifying a Rebellion WithinTo pacify these rebellions, backroom boys from both the parties have swung into action. Congress has deputed a four-member team comprising Vivek Bansal, Tarun Kumar, Kazi Nizamuddin and Devendra Yadav. They will rope in the top leaders from the state as and when required.In the BJP, Chief Minister Raje has taken it upon herself to manage the rebellion and is known to reach out personally to each of the rebels. She would be assisted by party chief MadanLal Saini, senior leader OM mathur and Union minister of State Gajendra Singh Shekawat.With the 2013 assembly elections leaving a huge divide of 141 seats between the Congress and BJP these 23 rebels will play a crucial factor in deciding which party crosses the 100 seat mark to stake their claim in forming the government. The Congress didn’t give an impression of a united house all through the nomination process, and would like to make up for it by acting swiftly to manage the situation in the next 48 hours, pacify the maximum number of people, and strategise accordingly.A look at the previous four assembly elections reveal that barring the exception of 2013, independents have managed to get around 10 percent votes and win seven to ten seats in the house and impact the fortune of around 15 seats. The turn of events suggest that this time too is no different.Rajasthan Assembly Elections: How Will Raje Tackle BJP Defections?(The writer is founder of @journalism_talk. He tweets @avinashkalla. This is an opinion piece. The views expressed are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)

BECOME A MEMBER

Rajasthan’s ‘Rebels’: Independents Likely to Drive State Election

The last four assembly elections tell us that sans 2013, independents have got about 10 percent votes each time.

Read Latest News and Breaking News at The Quint, browse for more from opinion

Topics: Vasundhara Raje Defection Congress vs BJP